Week 4 College Football Matchup: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights
Odds courtesy of 5dimes
Wake Forest needs a win in a bad way and finds itself favored against the Army by a mere 2.5 points. The Demon Deacons dropped both the last two weeks against LA-Monroe (21-19) and Boston College (24-10). The win against Presbyterian to open the season can be discounted for obvious reasons. But the sober reality for Wake is that failure to win this week would send them 1-3 into a match up against No. 3 Clemson next week.
The Demon Deacons have a tough schedule in a tough conference, and may not eclipse last season’s 5-win total, though it is early to say that. Matchups against ranked conference foes Miami and Florida State (Oct 26 & Nov 9) are near-certain losses, and most of the other ACC teams are better than Wake too. Tanner Price is in his senior season, and it’s tough to say that he’s improved any since his freshman year in 2010.
Price’s completion ratio is fair and steady (58.8 percent), but a lack of options in the backfield tends to make Wake’s offense fairly predictable. Price himself hasn’t done so well rushing, either, gaining 0.7 yards per carry, which is only slightly worse than leading running back Josh D. Harris (2.2 yards per carry). With an offense lacking weapons, an Army upset is entirely conceivable, if a 2.5 point spread even warrants usage of the word ‘upset.’
Army is 1-2 behind an offense that has relied almost exclusively on the rush. The Black Knights actually rank 7th in the nation in rushing yardage (314 per game), but have almost no aerial attack to speak of (75.3 yards, 123rd in nation). It was effective enough to knock of Morgan State in the opening week, but not nearly a diverse enough look to flourish against Ball State and No. 5 Stanford. However, the Black Knights lost by just two touchdowns to the ranked Cardinal, and that may be what has led college football oddsmakers to believe the team could improve to 2-2 this week.
The Black Knights have thrown just 38 passes all season, while they have attempted 167 running plays. Their diverse backfield includes Larry Dixon (242 yards), Angel Santiago (211 yards), Terry Baggett (133) and Raymond Maples (123). Boston College racked up 191 rushing yards on Wake, so Army definitely has the opportunity to do some damage in what may be one of the least bet on games of the week–due both to the lack of bettors’ knowledge about the two squads and the close point spread in a game which will not be nationally televised.
0-6 ATS in last 6 overall; 0-4 ATS in last 4 non-conf; 0-4 ATS in last 4 following ATS loss
OVER 5-0-1 in last 6 vs ACC; 0-4 ATS in last 4 following ATS win; OVER 5-1 in last 6 following double-digit loss at home.