Week 4 College Football Betting Predictions: Fresno State Bulldogs vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Derek Carr threw for 3,544 yards last year in his first full season as a starter, and has a QB Rating of 170.5 this season so far.

Fresno State vs Tulsa
Time: 8 PM EST Sat
TV: CBC
Spread: TUL -6.5
Total: 68
M/L: TUL -240, FRES +200

Betting odds from Bookmaker

FRESNO STATE

Fresno State kicked off the season right with a win over Weber State, 37-10. They came back down to Earth, however, in their 42-25 loss to then-No. 4 Oregon two weeks ago, and they came back last week to smash Colorado by a score of 69-14.

In that demonstrative display of dominance against the Buffaloes, Robbie Rouse broke the all time Fresno State rushing record on a 94 yard run, en route to scoring four TDs in the first quarter, while Colorado went on to lose their third straight.

Rouse had 144 of his school-high 3,519 yards on the night to pass Ron Rivers as the all-time leading rusher. Fresno State had lost their previous four games to teams against the six major conferences, including the loss to AP ranked Oregon. This was the biggest win so far for first-year coach Tim DeRuyter.

How good was Fresno State? They scored TDs on their first six possessions, and during that span of time the Buffaloes of Colorado managed but a single first down.

QB Derek Carr, younger brother of former Bulldogs QB David Carr, threw for 300 yards on 17 of 22 passing, while hurling five TDs, and only one interception. His QB rating is now very high at 170.5 almost 26 full points higher than a season ago, while he has thrown a total of 8 TDs in the three games with only one interception.

Fresno State is expected to go 7-5 by Athlon magazine, with a 6-2 record in their new conference. Last year, they played in the WAC, and compiled a 3-4 conference record.

Carr and tailback Robbie Rouse are two of the best players in the Mountain West Conference now and the offense will keep the Bulldogs competitive. The players are all adapting to a new system, and if the defense improves in line with the offense, this team could be dangerous. Will it be enough to beat Boise State in the MWC? Doubtful. But in two to three seasons time, it could be Fresno State that is the toast of their new conference.

66.7 percent of bettors are predicting the total of the game to go over the 68.5 point total set by college football oddsmakers, while only 37.2 percent of bettors are expecting Fresno to cover the spread, at time of issue (9:35 PM EST, Friday night).

FRESNO STATE Betting Trends:

Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs teams with winning home records and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 in September. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on turf, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating 450+ total yards. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing and 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 after accumulating 280+ yards in the previous game. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following an SU win of 20+

FRESNO STATE O/U Trends:

OVER is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games after accumulating 450+ total yards and 4-1 OVER in the last 5 after allowing less than 20 previous game. OVER is 12-3 in the last 15 following an SU win and it is OVER 4-1 in the last 5 vs team with winning records. OVER is 11-3 in last 14 road, OVER is 10-3 last 13 on turf, and it is OVER 6-2 in September.

TULSA

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have come back strong after an opening night loss to Iowa State, in which they fell by 15 to the Cyclones on their home field on September 1st.

Since that time, they’ve won games against Tulane, 45-10, and Nicholls State 66-16, to bounce back and rank 14th in the nation in points scored with 44.7 per game. This is behind the strong rushing game of the Golden Hurricane, who rank 10th in the nation in rushing yards with 285.7 per game.

They have four main ball carriers: Ja’Terian Douglas, Trey Watts, Alex Singleton, and Zack Langer. Douglas has rushed for over three hundred yards already and has three TDs in the young season, while Singleton has 5 TDs on 28 carries for 128 yards. Watts is a heavy load carrier, too, with 261 yards on 29 carries and a long run of 77 yards in the loss to Iowa State. In that loss, Watts finished with 125 yards on 10 carries, while Douglas ran for a mere 55 yards, averaging five yards per carry on 11 carries, though he did score a TD.

This is because of the rather weak Tulsa pass game, which features junior Cody Green at QB. Green has a QB rating of 128.2 due to his six interceptions and 54.4 percent completion ratio. He’s also gaining only 6.69 yards per pass, down from nearly 10 a year ago. The Golden Hurricane still rank about middle of the road in passing yards, 58th in the nation for 239.3 yards per game.

With so many bettors picking the Golden Hurricane to cover the spread, they must be expecting a meltdown from the Fresno State defense, who has gone from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under Tim DeRuter, who employed that formation at Texas A&M and Air Force.

DeRuter and D coordinator Nick Toth spent the majority of the spring attempting to discern who to put where on the field, and the Bulldogs gave up 35.2 points per game last year, which ranked them 106th in the nation, while also giving up 435.9 yards per game (100th). The line features three starters who never even had started a college game prior to this season. Bettors are keying heavily upon this and 66.7 percent expect the total to go OVER that set by college football oddsmakers.

TULSA Betting Trends:

Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs MWC. They are 9-1 ATS in their las 10 vs home teams with winning road records and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing less than 20 points previous week. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an SU win, and 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating 200+ rushing yards in previous game. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conf games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating 450+ total yards in the previous game.

TULSA O/U Trends:

UNDER is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 vs teams with a winning record, OVER 6-1 in last 7 on turf, UNDER 4-1 in last 5 home games, UNDER 8-2 in last 10 games after scoring more than 40 previous game, UNDER 18-7-2 in last 27 after an SU Win of 20+, UNDER 24-10 in the last 34 after accumulating 450+ total yards, and UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in previous game.

THE FINAL WORD:

These two high scoring teams are drawing a lot of looks on the OVER on the point total.  With two-thirds of bettors feeling as though this one could go over, there has been a lot more action on the totals betting than on the spread in a game which could easily go either way, with college football oddsmakers setting the line less than one touchdown in favor of Tulsa.

But which Tulsa will we see?  Will it be the team that struggled against actual competition when they faced Iowa State, or will they look like the well oiled machine they were in their blowout victories over both Tulane and Nicholls State?    That is the question bettors are contemplating.

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Posted by on Sep 21 2012. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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