Week 3 College Football Picks, Odds, Trends: Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes

Air Force at Colorado

Time: NOON CST, Saturday

Spread: COL -3.5

Total: 58.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Colorado Buffaloes started its season 2-0 after knocking off Colorado State in Week 2 and defeating then-No. 25 Nebraska last week. The impressive win over Nebraska was not enough to propel Colorado into an AP Ranking of its own, but it brings it one step closer. The Buffaloes will host Air Force here in Week 3, as 3.5-point favorites on its home field. The betting total is set at 58.5 points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes, and the game will air at NOON (CST) on the Pac 12 network.

COL

The Buffaloes may have required OT to defeat Nebraska, but the win was a huge notch on the belt of the Buffaloes. James Stefanou hit a clutch 34-yard field goal in overtime, and Nebraska was unable to answer with its 49-yard attempt by its punter Isaac Armstrong.

Steven Montez had a nice game for himself at QB. The senior quarterback has thrown 41 of 61 (67.2 percent) on the season for 607 yards through two games. He has four TD passes and just one interception, and his passer rating is an outstanding 169.2. He has come close to 3,000 yards the past two seasons, but this could be the year he actually reaches that mark. Last year he completed 64.7 percent of his looks, and he is already nearly three percent higher through this season’s small sample size.

The Buffaloes did not get a ton of production from its backfield, nor did it necessarily need it. Jaren Mangham had both touchdowns and led the way with 44 yards, but Colorado averaged just 2.4-yards-per carry. Montez was particularly poor when he attempted to rush, with a total loss of 17-yards on his eight attempts. Fortunately, wide receiver KD Nixon was so good the Buffaloes had few problems moving the ball into scoring position. Nixon had six catches for 148 yards, averaging nearly 25 yards per catch. Tony Brown and Jaylon Jackson added 60 and 57 yards, respectively, and Brown had the other Colorado passing TD (with Nixon managing the other).

AF

Air Force is 1-0 after knocking off Colgate 48-7 in Week 1. The win did not really showcase much. Colgate is pretty poor, after all. Interestingly, Air Force ran one pass play the entire game, not even seeking to keep things mysterious. The Falcons rushed 65 times for an average of 6.5-yards-per-carry in its typical fashion, and its top-five rushers all had 40 yards or more on the game. With 17 players attempting at least one carry, it was one of the least disguised offensive efforts, but it hardly mattered against the Colgate Raiders. The Falcons might find its lack of offensive diversity to be a much bigger problem against the Buffaloes this week.

ATS TRENDS (c/o Covers):

Air Force
  • Falcons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Falcons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
  • Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win.
  • Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Colorado
  • Buffaloes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC.
  • Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Buffaloes are 20-44 ATS in their last 64 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Buffaloes are 4-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Buffaloes are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

OU TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Air Force
  • Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 16-6 in Falcons last 22 road games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 9-4 in Falcons last 13 games on grass.
Colorado
  • Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 13-3 in Buffaloes last 16 vs. MWC.
  • Under is 14-4 in Buffaloes last 18 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 12-4 in Buffaloes last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games overall.
  • Under is 10-4 in Buffaloes last 14 games following a straight up win.
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