Week 17 NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report
Here is the week 17 NFL Betting Trend Report

Miami at Buffalo

Time: NOON EST, CBS

Spread: EVEN

Total: 43

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Miami Dolphins are 10-5 and in second place in the AFC East. It trails its opponent Buffalo by two games in the standings, and it visits the Bills at Noon (EST) Sunday in a game with EVEN odds. The total is set at 43 points according to NFL oddsmakers at 5dimes.

MIA

The Miami Dolphins enter as winners of its last two games, having defeated the New England Patriots 22-12 two weeks ago and knocking off the Las Vegas Raiders 26-25 last week. It needed a 44-yard field goal from Jason Sanders to take the lead and win with just a second on the clock. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 9 of 13 for 181 yards, while Tua Tagovailoa came in to complete 17 of 22 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa was sacked three times for 23 yards lost, and he had a Quarterback rating of just 63.5. The Dolphins got 87 rushing yards from Myles Gaskin, and he led the team in receiving yards as well with 82 on five catches, along with two receiving touchdowns.

Miami ranks No. 15 in scoring at 25.2 points per game despite possessing the No. 25 ranked pass offense and the No. 22 rush attack. The Dolphins largely are efficient, take care of the football, and have the league’s premier defense, limiting opponents to just 18.8 points per game.

Gaskin has become the team’s most versatile offensive weapon. He caught more passes last week than the previous entire season (5 vs. 4) and he has 564 rushing yards at a 4.2 yard-per-carry average. Fitzpatrick leads the team in yards-per-attempts at 5.0. The Dolphins have a 4.0 yards-per-carry team average and 13 touchdowns via the rush. DaVante Parker leads the team receptions (56), yardage (677), and ranks No. 2 in touchdowns with four (Mike Gesicki has six).

ATS Trends:

Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.

Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dolphins are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Dolphins are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.

Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.

Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.

Dolphins are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.

Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January.

Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 17.

BUF

The Buffalo Bills are 6-1 at home where it faces the Dolphins this week. The Bills have won five straight games with victories over the Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, and Patriots. Buffalo ranks No. 6 in scoring at 29.7 points per game, with its passing attack ranked No. 2 at 282.9 yards per game. Credit much of that improvement to the great season by Josh Allen.

Allen has completed 4,320 yards at a 69 percent clip with 34 touchdowns to just nine picks. His passer rating is an outstanding 106.4. Allen has also been a rush threat. He has carried the ball 100 times for 418 yards and a team-best eight touchdowns. Devin Singletary leads in rush attempts (153), yardage (680) but ranks No. 3 in TD rushes with just two. Zack Moss has four touchdown carries and the team’s best yard-per-carry average at 4.3.

Allen’s premier targets have been Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis. Diggs leads the team in receptions (120), yardage (1459), and touchdowns (8). The Bills have 36 receiving touchdowns on the season and have seven players possessing two or more TD passes. Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft each have three touchdowns and have combined for 46 catches from the tight end position.

ATS Trends:

Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.

Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

Bills are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in January.

Bills are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.

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