Week 13 College Football Betting Preview: Navy Midshipmen at San Jose State Spartans
Navy Midshipmen at San Jose State Spartans
Spartan Stadium – San Jose, California
Friday, November 22, 2013, 9:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: San Jose State -3
Current Line: San Jose State -2
Opening Total: 57
Current Total: 59
Opening Money Line: SJSU -135 / Navy +115
Current Money Line: SJSU -130 / Navy +110
The 6-4 Navy Midshipmen are 6-4 this season and have already clinched a berth in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. The Midshipmen travel across country to face the 5-5 San Jose State Spartans Friday night. The Spartans are 4-3 in the Mountain West and can become bowl eligible with a win against Navy or next week against Fresno State. San Jose State leads the series against Navy 2-0. Both meetings have taken place in the last two seasons. The Spartans won last year in Annapolis 12-0. The will play again in Annapolis in 2014 to complete a four year home and home series.
Navy is coached by Ken Niumatalolo. The Midshipmen have home wins over Delaware 51-7, Air Force 28-10, Pittsburgh 24-21, Hawaii 42-28, and South Alabama 42-14 last week. Navy has a road win at Indiana 41-35. The Midshipmen have road losses at Western Kentucky 19-7, Duke 35-7, Toledo 45-44 in double overtime, and Notre Dame 38-34. Navy has won two straight games since then to become bowl eligible. The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season. Navy was a 7 point favorite at home against South Alabama and the total was 59.
South Alabama would take early leads of 7-3 and 14-10. However, the Jaguars would not score again, as Navy closed the game on a 32-0 run to win 42-14. USA had 300 total yards including 180 passing yards. Navy had 519 total yards including 351 rushing yards. Neither team had a turnover.
Navy is outscoring teams 32-25 this season. The Midshipmen are averaging 415.2 yards per game on offense including the nation’s fifth leading rushing attack at 311 yards per game. Passing is an after thought at best and Navy is #124 in passing out of 125 FBS teams at 124 yards per game. On defense, the Middies are allowing 401.6 yards per game including 209.9 passing and 191.7 rushing yards. Navy is #27 in pass defense and #92 in rush defense nationally. Navy is +7 in turnovers with 15 takeaways. Navy averages 26 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. The Midshipmen are 83/154 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 77/157. Navy is 40/45 scoring in the red zone with 33 touchdowns and opponents are 27/35 with 24 touchdowns. The Midshipmen have forced 9 sacks and allowed 14 this season. Navy has allowed one defensive touchdown this season.
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds has completed 54.6% of his passes for 982 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 214 carries, 884 yards and 19 touchdowns. Back-up John Hendrick has thrown for 60 yards with 2 interceptions, and also has a rushing touchdown.
Fullback Chris Swain has 96 carries, 373 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Running back Darius Staten has 28 carries, 325 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 62 yards. Geoffrey Whiteside has 34 carries, 255 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Quinton Singleton has 48 catches, 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a catch. Noah Copeland has 53 carries, 226 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches, 43 yards and a touchdown. DeBrandon Sanders has 29 carries for 238 yards and 12 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Casey Bolena has 12 catches for 145 yards. Matt Aiken has 7 catches for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns. Two defensive backs and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report for Navy.
San Jose State is coached by Ron Caragher. The Spartans have home wins over Sacramento State 24-0, and Wyoming 51-44, along with road wins at Hawaii 37-27, Colorado State 34-27 and UNLV 34-24. San Jose State has road losses at Stanford 34-13, Minnesota 43-24, and last week at Nevada 38-16, along with home losses to Utah State 40-12 and San Diego State 34-30. The Spartans are 5-5 ATS and the total is 4-5-1 this season. SJSU was a 6.5 point favorite at Nevada and the total was 67.
San Jose State took a 10-7 first quarter lead at Nevada last week. However, the Wolf Pack would take a 21-16 lead into halftime. Nevada scored 17 points in the second half and held SJSU off the board to make the final 38-16. San Jose State has lost two straight games after a four game winning streak The Spartans had 384 total yards including 326 passing yards. The Wolf Pack had 482 total yards including 311 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover.
San Jose State is being outscored 31-28 this season. The Spartans are #75 nationally in scoring and #89 in points allowed. SJSU averages 458.3 total yards including 325.4 passing yards and 132.9 rushing yards per game. The Spartans are #34 in total offense, #11 in passing and #97 in rushing nationally. On defense, San Jose State is allowing 438.7 total yards including 237.1 passing and 201.6 rushing yards. The Spartans are #98 in total defense, #102 against the rush, and #77 in pass defense. SJSU is -2 in turnovers with 18 giveaways. The Spartans average 47 penalty yards per game and opponents average 40. San Jose State is 71/175 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 78/164. The Spartans have forced 15 sacks and allowed 20 this season. SJSU is 24/32 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns, and opponents are 39/49 with 32 touchdowns. The Spartans have not scored or allowed a defensive/special teams touchdown.
SJSU quarterback David Fales has completed 60.4% of his passes for 3,202 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, plus a rushing TD. Running back Jarrod Lawson has 124 carries, 646 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 12 catches, 163 yards and a touchdown. Jason Simpson has 59 carries, 262 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches. Tim Crawley has 51 carries, 219 yards and a touchdown, plus 19 catches for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas Tucker has 38 carries for 211 yards and a touchdown, plus 9 catches for 72 yards. Two little used running backs Alvin Jelks and Tyler Ervin are both questionable Friday.
Receiver Chandler Jones has 64 catches for 1,109 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tyler Winston has 38 catches, 608 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Billy Freeman has 24 catches, 396 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with a touchdown pass. Kyle Nunn has 21 catches, 304 yards and a touchdown. Jabari Carr has 23 catches for 150 yards. Noel Grigsby has two touchdown catches, but is out for the season with a knee injury. Tight end Max Miller is questionable Friday. Four defensive players are listed as questionable or out.
Navy is 4-1 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, overall, on fieldturf, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 16-5 against Mountain West teams, 5-2 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 2-5 in November, 3-9 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 1-5 in Friday games, and 1-6 after allowing 20 points or less.
San Jose State is 4-0 ATS against Independent teams, 6-1 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 8-2 in November, 10-3 against teams with winning records, 20-7 in non-conference games, 19-7 after passing for 280 yards or more, 19-7 overall, 8-3 after failing to cover, 19-7 after passing for 280 yards or more, and overall, 8-3 after failing to cover, 13-5 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 14-6 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 2-6 against teams with winning road records, and 0-5 after allowing 450 yards or more.
San Jose State struggles in the running game on both sides of the ball. Navy can’t stop the run, but San Jose State is much more dangerous throwing the ball. The Spartans have lost two straight games and are in jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game if they don’t win this game. San Jose State faces undefeated Fresno State next week. I think the Spartans get it done, but navy will keep it close in a high scoring game.