Golden State at Houston- Game 5 Prop bets at Bovada
Game 4 was an unusually low scoring affair, which saw both teams fail to reach the century mark, as Houston won 98-95 while holding Golden State to just 12 points in the fourth quarter. Although that is unlikely to occur again, our expectations for all scoring props must be tempered.
Or should they be?
Following such a strange game between these two high-octane games, the prop bets have to seem “wonky” in some respects.
Our option is to (largely) disregard the trends of Game 4 and base our projections for scoring props on the first three games of the series, most especially the first two, which were also played at the Toyota Center in Houston. Let us dive into the top stars’ scoring props for Game 5.
Stephen Curry over/under 26.5 points
Stephen Curry led the Warriors in scoring the past two games, and all notions of his health being sub-par must now be dispelled. He attempted 26 field goals (again, a team-high) in Game 4, while recording 28 points. Curry’s third quarter was particularly explosive as Golden State began to run away with the game, only to blow it in the fourth. That has little bearing on our projection to go with the OVER for the most dominant of the Splash Brothers.
Klay Thompson over/under 20 points
We discussed Klay Thompson’s issues with consistency last article, expecting a down game but being altogether too unsure to make a definitive call on it. We won’t settle for a push with Thompson struggling and failing to find his stroke: He connected on just 4 of 13 from the field in Game 4, and now he is back on the road where it theoretically should not be any easier. While Thompson certainly has his nights, based on recent performance alone we are comfortable with an UNDER call on the 20 point prop.
Kevin Durant over/under 30.5 points
Kevin Durant had a “quiet” 27 points in Game 4, which only leads us to further believe that he is going to truly explode tonight in Game 5. Durant is the league’s most efficient scorer and a 9 of 24 night, like in Game 4, is not likely to repeat. Now, can he score 31 points or more? That will be tough if Game 5 is anything like 4 was, however, it likely will not be. Expect Durant to take it hard to Trevor Ariza and PJ Tucker again, and having Andre Iguodala back should allow Durant to relax more defensively, as we go with the OVER.
James Harden over/under 31.5 points
James Harden dropped 30-points in game 4, and a repeat performance puts him awfully close to the 31.5 point prop. He could just as well drop 50. But what we’re getting at here, is this is a good one TO PUSH.
Eric Gordon over/under 15.5 points
Eric Gordon is Houston’s No. 3 option despite not starting the game, and he is going to get both his minutes and his shots. The 15.5 mark, however, is awfully accurate a projection, and we’re taking the easy way out with another PUSH here, too.
Chris Paul over/under 21.5 points
Chris Paul scored 27 points last game, and he seems primed to have another big scoring game. Paul has been aggressively carving up the Warriors’ defense, and while he may fall below 21.5 points, it would come with the gift of more assists. No matter what, his usage rate will be high, and his game is so pretty and efficient. Our lone actual call on Houston’s top-3 scorers is that this is an OVER.