The UFC is churning out events at a ridiculous rate these days. The only saving grace is that the quality is at least matching the quantity.UFC 94 could arguably be a deeper card, but the main event is as good as it gets. Georges St. Pierre and B.J. Penn are two of the four best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, so seeing them in a rematch is going to be brilliant. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the guys have wildly contrasting styles and personalities, they have a controversial history, and they really don’t seem to like each other much. It should be great. Here’s a quick look at the t match and the rest on the card.
Georges St. Pierre (-185) vs. B.J. Penn (+130) – Who do I think is going to win this one? It’s close, but I like St. Pierre a bit better – he’s bigger and stronger, and I think he ismore determined. Who would I bet on? This is one of those strange situations where this differs from who I like. Penn s an underdog in my eyes, but far less of one than the price indicates. That puts the value on his side as I see it. I think the match will come down almost entirely to momentum in the end – if either fighter can grab it he can run with it and will be hard to stop.
Lyoto Machida (-266) vs. Thiago Silva (+200) – These guys both have perfect 13-0 records. Given that, it seems surprising to me how much of a gap there is between the two fighters in my eyes.Machida is not interesting to watch, but he is very technically sound, methodical, and he doesn’t make mistakes. Silva is aggressive, but that should get him into trouble against a guy likeMachida who will be able to exploit the worst mistakes. Machida is worth the high price here.
Stephan Bonnar (-175) vs. Jon Jones (+145) – I think that it is important to remember that we aren’t betting on potential here. Jones is a fighter with a very bright future. He’s only 21, though, andBonnar is a better fighter than he has faced. Bonnar is an experienced veteran, and he will be able to teach Jones a lesson or to here.
Karo Parisyan (-285) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+225) – Parisyan had a very promising career derailed by injuries and mental problems. He’s back and seems ready to give it another go, though. The powers that be have given him a good opponent to get his mojo back against. Kim has his attributes, but he is outclassed here.
Clay Guida (-115) vs. Nate Diaz (-120) – This is at least as close as the odds suggest. It comes down to what style you prefer. Diaz is a methodical, technically sound jiu jitsu specialist. Guida looks like a lunatic. Guida needs to avoid costly mistakes, but if he can do that then I really like his chances of catching Diaz off guard.
Jon Fitch (-575) vs. Akihiro Gono (+375) – I’d love to take the fat price on Gono, but there is no possible way – this is a terrible mismatch.
Thiago Tavares (-130) vs. Manny Gamburyan (even) – This fight is going to be lousy. I don’t see anything redeeming about it. I thing Tavares will win, though.
Chris Wilson (-325) vs. John Howard (+250) – I hate picking a lot of favorites, but I have to pick at least one more. Wilson’s edge seems clear.
Jake O’Brien (-250) vs. Christian Wellisch (+195) – Another one where I am forced to take a dull price. O’Brien should be able to end his night early and victoriously.
Matt Arroyo (-185) vs. Dan Cramer (+155) – Finally an underdog I can take. I think this one is going to go the distance, and it could go either way. That means I’ll take the price on Cramer in this coin flip.