The Last Two Derby Preps
The Kentucky Derby is just three weeks away. After the last two prep races are run today all the horses will have run their last pre -Derby race, and we will start to get a good sense of what the field is going to look like. These last two prep races – the Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, and the Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas – don’t contain the biggest Derby threats (with one possible exception), but they have several very interesting runners that could definitely factor into the Derby picture. Here’s a look:
Blue Grass Stakes
This race is deep and complicated. The favorite will likely be Hold Me Back. He’s run just once this year – in the Lane’s End. He was at the back of the field around the final turn, but then he absolutely exploded, launching like he was shot out of a cannon to win by almost two lengths. It was incredibly impressive, but the inexperience is an issue.Theregoesjojo comes next. He doesn’t have a stakes win yet, but he has looked solid finishing behind top Florida contenders Quality Road and Dunkirk. If Hold Me Back is inexperienced then Charitable Man is downright raw. He injured himself in a race as a two year old and is making his first start in seven months. A win here would send him to Kentucky, and it would be an incredibly unlikely story. Terrain was third in the Arkansas Derby behind Friesian Fire last time out and looks to move forward from there. Patena is coming out of that same race, though he was lousy there and will need to make a big step forward. Mafaaz is here from England. He won a race there that gives him an automatic bid in the Kentucky Derby, and he is trying this race here to see if it is worth taking that spot.
I am intrigued by Charitable Man, but it seems like too much of a risk. My money will go with Hold Me Back, with Theregoesjojo and Terrain behind him in the exacta.
Arkansas Derby
This is the race that has produced some serious winners recently – Curlin, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, and Smarty Jones. There are only three horses here that appear to have the game to rise to anywhere near those levels. Old Fashioned is chief among them. He was at or near the top of most Derby lists a month ago, but then he was beaten as heavy favorite in the Rebel stakes. He;ll be watched very closely to see how he bounces back. The horse that beat him is here, too – Win Willy. That horse came from nowhere to catch Old Fashioned unaware and steal the race. It’s hard to know if that performance was a case of a horse being badly misjudged, or if he just had an exceptionally good day. Papa Clem is the third intriguing starter. He was a strong second to Friesian Fire in the Louisiana Derby last time out, and two races back he was sandwiched between winner Pioneerof The Nile and I Want Revenge at the finish line.
I’m still a believer in Old Fashioned. I’ll take him on top of the other two in an exacta, and also to win if the price holds up.
Related posts:
- Five Horses That Won’t Win The Derby I don
- Top Five Derby Winners of my Lifetime I’m
- Five Horses That Could Win the Derby If you are
Tags: Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes
