Maddux Sports Blog

As we did last weekend, here’s a look at what I think are the most interesting top 25 games of the weekend. Not included on here is the obvious one - USC-Ohio State. If you’re not totally sick of hearing about that game by now then you are a better person than me. For the record, I think USC will win, but I think the line movement has been utterly ridiculous this week. It also doesn’t include perhaps the most interesting top 25 game of the week - Kansas-USF - because that one has already happened.

Nevada (+26.5) at Missouri - Missouri is going to win this one. That’s virtually certain. What will be interesting to watch, though, is whether Nevada can replicate what they did last week. That’s when they stifled and frustrated Texas Tech for a good portion of the game. The Tigers and Red Raiders are different teams, obviously, but they both have explosive, dangerous offenses. I’m not convinced that Nevada will be able to do it again. After all, the shut down is all relative - Texas Tech still scored 35 points. There is also potential for the Tigers to explode here. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

UCLA (+8) at BYU - The Bruins have to get their heads screwed back on straight after they have had two weeks to read and hear just how impressive their first big upset win over Tennessee was. This will be a good opportunity to see what kind of control Rick Neuheisel has over his new team. It’s also a chance to see if BYU can bounce back from a disappointing performance against Washington last week. I would like this game more if it was at UCLA, but it is still a chance for us to see if BYU is for real. Or UCLA, for that matter. More than two-thirds of the public likes theBruins.

SMU (+36) at Texas Tech - Texas Tech hasn’t looked good so far, even though they have won twice. I am not alone in thinking before the season that the Red Raiders were a legitimate force in the Big 12. So far things haven’t looked quite right for the offense. This game against a hopeless opponent (with apologies to June Jones, who will turn this team around given time) will be a chance for us to see if there are actually problems with Tech, or if it has just taken them a while to find their stride. I really need to be convinced that Graham Harrell is healthy.

Wisconsin (-2.5) at Fresno State - This has a good chance to be the classic game of the weekend. I have really been impressed with Wisconsin. I knew they would be able to run the ball at will, but I wasn’t expecting the versatility that they showed last week by focusing heavily and successfully on the pass against Marshall. Fresno State has very high expectations this year, and they looked good beating Rutgers in their lone game (though UNC on Thursday showed that that isn’t as impressive as it could be). This is perhaps the biggest game ever played in Fresno, and the crowd is going to be out of control. I truly believe that this one could go either way. No matter what, it is going to be fun to watch.

UNLV (+24) at Arizona State - With apologies to a Rebels fan I know, UNLV stands no chance here. It probably won’t be very interesting. What I want to see, though, is how good Arizona State looks. Like they probably are, I’m looking ahead to next week. Georgia travels to Tempe next weekend. I’m not currently convinced that the Sun Devils really stand a chance, but a strong performance in this game could make it much more interesting, and could put a lot more play into the line.

I’m going to weigh in tomorrow with in-game analysis during both games. Until then, I just wanted to share a couple of interesting things that have popped up today and provide us with more to think about as we try to make winning picks on the big games:

Kansas loses a player - The Jayhawks become the second team to have to cope with the loss of a minute-eating reserve. Unlike Memphis, though, this was not for disciplinary reasons. In a bizarre incident, guard Rodrick Stewart broke his kneecap in an open practice today. He was mugging for the crowd by doing a big slam and he obviously landed very badly. Stewart, a senior, added just 2.8 points per game, but was good for 11.6 minutes. Like the Allen situation with Memphis situation, I’m not too worried about this one - teams are very likely to shorten their bench and rely more heavily on their starters in a game that is so crucial as this. That’s especially the case when the season ends with a loss, and is almost over with a win, so there is no future to save your players for.

The ‘experts’ weigh in - It is time for the paid geniuses to make their wise picks. There is an interesting contrast between two of the major media outlets. SI.com asked five of their writers who would win. Four came up with UCLA as champions, with three having them beat North Carolina in the final. The fourth has North Carolina beating Memphis. ESPN is a bit different. Three of their five experts has Memphis beating UCLA, though none have Memphis winning it all. Two of them have Kansas winning it all, while UCLA and North Carolina get the nod once. The boldest pick is that he team that is playing best in the final will win it. That’s how you really go out on a limb. If you buy into these expert opinions at all then you have to think that UCLA presents pretty good value in their Saturday game since they are underdogs. The SI writers might want to make a futures bet, too - the Bruins are the longest shots on the board to win it all at 16/5 according to Bodog. Kansas is 3/1, Memphis is 27/10, and North Carolina is fairly significantly favored at 8/5.

The books like their number in the North Carolina game - Almost 80 percent of the bets made so far have been on the Tar Heels, yet the number is still at the -3 that it opened at in most places. That either means that the smart money is hitting Kansas hard enough to balance things out, or that the books are willing to expose themselves at this number. Memphis has had about two thirds of the action, and the line has moved from -1 to -2, so that one is acting more as expected.

UCLA is a very popular choice to win it all, and they are very likely to find themselves going very deep in most of my brackets. It only makes sense - they have been to the Final Four twice in a row, and this team is just as good as the last two teams. Kevin Love is probably the best player who has played for the team during this run. It’s not all sunshine and roses, though. Two of the starters are hurting. Love has a sore back that has limited his participation in recent days. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute sprained his ankle for the second time this season, and that kept him out of the Pac-10 championship game against Stanford. So, the question is this - should we panic? Will these injuries damage an otherwise promising run? Here’s a look:

We’ll start with Mbah a Moute because his injury is the most serious. He hasn’t practiced with the team since he hurt himself Friday, and he has spent time in a walking cast and on crutches. That’s not good. The last time he hurt himself he missed two games. They won and covered against Washington State, but then they came out and played their worst game of the season in losing to lowly Washington by 10. That’s not promising. Things were a bit more promising following the most recent injury. The team was downcast when he went down against USC, but they were still able to hold off O.J. Mayo and company, and then they handled Stanford, a solid three seed, fairly easily without him.

Mbah a Moute doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is a huge defensive presence and a calming force. They need him badly.

Love is less of a concern if only because he can play through his problems. He has a sore back, but he has been practicing and is slated to play. He may not be at 100 percent, but he was sore over the weekend and he still played pretty well. It’s obviously not ideal, but it could be worse.

So should we be concerned? Not really. There are a couple of good reasons. First, UCLA won’t be particularly challenged for the first weekend of the tournament. They can almost certainly win both games without Mbah a Moute. It helps on that front as well that James Keefe has played well in the absence of Mbah a Moute the last game and a half. That means that the starter can give himself enough time to heal and be ready. He can take as much as two weeks off if he needs it. That’s how long he took off the last time to heal. The other major factor is that this is the tournament, and this team knows what the tournament is about, so they will be ready to play and win even if they all get their legs chopped off.