The more I thought about the game last night, the more I realized something – I don’t really like the Super Bowl very much. Don’t get me wrong – and day of football is usually better than a day without football. It’s just that there are a whole lot of other football days that I would rather watch than that one. There are a bunch of reasons why, but here are seven:
I’m going to d a much more in-depth look back at the game, the season, and what I have learned this year over the coming week, but I want to quickly put down a few initial thoughts from the Super Bowl:
We have finally come to the end of the line – this is the last time I will write about the Super Bowl before it happens. I’m going to go with a UFC 94 preview tomorrow instead. I’m looking forward to the game as much as anyone, but I just wish it would get here. I have dissected this game a million different ways and I am frankly a little sick of it. I have my opinions, you have your opinion, and everyone else has their opinion, and there is probably not much that any of us can say to change that. Instead of trying to change your thinking, I thought I would look at five things that I am looking forward to about the game:
I want to take a look at some of the Super Bowl props that I find interesting. Before I do, though, I want to make it clear that I think props are good for a bit of fun, but absolutely nothing else. They are worth playing for entertain, but if you are looking at them as a serious bet then, in my eyes, you are fooling yourself. They are a gamble, and the Super Bowl is all about gambling, so have at it. Just be sure to shop around for the best odds. Here are five props that I like:
Player to win MVP – Santonio Holmes (+1500) – Looking at all the possible players, this is the one I like best. Holmes is Pittsburgh’s best chance at making the type of acrobatic play that MVP voters love. I don’t necessarily think he will win, but his price best reflects value. For less value I don’t mind the idea of playing both QBs, either. It would return a profit either way.
Player to score first TD – Tim Hightower (10/1) – There are a lot of ways that this game could play out, but one is that Arizona’s offense could find a way to move early on and then punch it in when they get close. If that happens then Hightower would likely get the score. The chances of that happening seem better than 10/1 to me.
I’m what I would call an enthusiastic amateur horseplayer. I absolutely love going to the races, and I love the puzzle that races present, but I don’t put in the time or effort that it takes to be good at picking winners over the long term. Regular winners at the tracks are magicians. Because I’m not a hardcore ‘capper I have to rely on tricks to spot winners from time to time. My favorite such trick is to look in the past performances for a horse that loses ground compared to the leader at some point in the race, and then gains it back later on. That shows a couple of things – the horse is in good enough shape to be ready for a late charge, and he has the heart and determination to pick himself back up when he is down. If a horse has done that at least twice in his last five races then he’s certainly worth a real look.
Yes, hype week is here and that means that the biggest of a big football games is less than a week away. The Pittsburgh Steelers are seven-point favorites and you’ve got to wonder if that fact will simply fuel the Arizona Cardinals in their quest for respect. The Cards have gotten no respect due to the fact that they won a weak division with a 9- 7 record and, in doing so, lost four of their last six games. Three of those loses were to the playoff bound Giants, Vikings and Eagles and the other was to the Patriots. Many felt going into the post-season that the Cardinals were, at the best, lucky and not good enough to be there. But now, it seems to me, that no one has bothered to see what they’ve done in the post-season. I mean don’t they play the game for a reason?
The teams have arrived in Tampa Bay and we are, mercifully, getting closer and closer to the game. Every year I forget just how painful these two weeks are – too much time and not enough news to fill it. We’ll get into the nitty gritty of some specific analysis over the next couple of days, but let’s start the week with some more general thoughts and observations:
I’ve had some important dates in my life and here are a few calendar items you’ll want to note in your date book, Blackberry or computer. At least, I think you will.
We will obviously spend tons and tons of time looking at the Super Bowl from every different angle over the next two weeks, but before we get into the nitty gritty of it let’s look at the first thoughts that came from watching the two games today:
Giants’ head coach Tom Coughlin seems to have figured it out—how to win. Run the ball as much as possible while asking quarterback Eli Manning to do enough but not too much to win. If winning in the NFL is about balance, then Coughlin may very well be a high wire walker and a successful one at that.
