Maddux Sports Blog

I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game - why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.

I have to give Aaron Rodgers credit. 18 of 22, 178 yards, a touchdown. 35 yards and a TD on the ground. Nothing wrong with that. Much, much better than I expected of him. Another brilliant insight on my part.

It’s only halftime of the second game, but I have seen enough to emphatically declare Oakland a total nightmare. They look dazed and confused, they are getting torched by Eddie Royal, a rookie receiver, DeAngelo Hall is embarrassing himself, there appears to be no gameplan, and no ability to achieve it even if there was one. Lane Kiffin is in a terrible situation, but he still should be embarrassed by the team he put on the field.

I find the Seahawks receiver situation hilarious, and I know that that might make me a bad person. Nate Burleson tripped over his feet in Buffalo and tore his ACL. Bye-bye season. That’s too bad - he’s a good receiver and he had a TD already. Burleson joins pretty much every other receiver the team has on the injured list. Bobby Engram won’t be back from a broken shoulder until next month. Deion Branch is out indefinitely with knee problems of his own. Ben Obomanu is on the IR. The team now has three active receivers on the roster, and I guarantee that casual football fans will never have heard of any of them. THe team is looking for a veteran, shifting players off the practice squad, and apparently seriously considering moving backup QB Seneca Wallace over to wideout. Very, very strange situation.

I caught Roger Federer’s final at the U.S. Open this afternoon. Ridiculously, indescribably dominant. He made Andy Murray look like a little girl. That should shut the critics up a bit. It was getting frustrating hearing how he was done - he ended the year with a grand slam, two more grand slam finals, and a semi in the fourth. Not bad for a guy with mono. The good part of the criticism was that you could bet on him in the final at -190. That’s a ridiculous price for the guy, and one I jumped at.

Saturday was a very interesting day at Wimbledon. Venus Williams beat her sister, won her fifth Wimbledon title and second straight, and proved conclusively that she is without a doubt the best female grass player in the world despite her frustrating inconsistency. The sisters put their competitive differences aside a couple of hours later to cruise to an incredibly easy win in the doubles final. Finally, Canadian Daniel Nestor and new partner Nenad Zimonjic made their second straight grand slam final, but performed better this time around by winning in four sets.

That’s all fine, but the main event that we have been waiting for takes place tomorrow.The final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal was as close to inevitable as anything can be in sports. They are so clearly the best players in the world that it is laughable, and they have played in the last two Wimbledon finals and the last three at the French. Neither has been particularly challenged so far in the tournament. The fact that we all knew that this showdown was coming makes it no less interesting or exciting.

Despite the fact that Nadal has been crowned as the new king of tennis by much of the press, and Federer is getting the least respect that it is possible for a five time defending champion to get, Federer is still the favorite in this match, albeit by a smaller than normal margin. Pinnacle has Federer at -135, leaving Nadal at +125. As I said at the start of the tournament, I am enthusiastically on the side of Federer. Here, in brief, are five reasons:

1. Federer has 40 straight wins at Wimbledon. He is virtually unbeatable on grass. Nadal can’t say the same.

2. Federer has 10 career titles on grass, including five at Wimbledon. Nadal has one.

3. Despite opinions to the otherwise, Federer is in very good form. In his last three tournaments he reached the final at the French on a surface that isn’t a strength, won a grass tournament, the Gerry Weber, and has cruised to a final here. Granted, Nadal is one step better - he won the French and his grass prep. It’s a big mistake, though, to assume that Federer is in trouble. Neither Novak Djokovic nor Bjorn Borg knows what they are talking about on that front.

4. Federer is older, wiser and, despite his plethora of wins, I have the feeling that he is hungrier here. He is on top of the tennis world, but he is being threatened. He’s too much of a champion to take that challenge lying down. Further, he has the clear memory of the embarrassment he suffered in the French on his mind, and he won’t like that.

5. Federer is back to being healthy. Poor health accounted for much of his downswing, so the return to health can’t be underestimated.

Wimbledon gets underway today and goes on for the next two weeks. For once, the mens’ side holds some intrigue. For the last five years Roger Federer has won the title, and he has done it with ease bordering in ridiculous. This year, though, things are a bit different. He hasn’t had the dominating year he has had recently, and people aren’t nearly as scared of him as they used to be. Bjorn Borg said perhaps the most ridiculous thing in history when he suggested that Federer was done and that if and when he lost at Wimbledon he would probably retire. Novak Djokovic is only the third best player in the world, and he hasn’t had any more success beating Federer than he Rafael Nadal, but even he called out Roger this week. Their is definitely the smell of change in the air.

Let me say this as quickly and directly as I can - Roger Federer is not going to lose. He will win his sixth straight championship on the grass in front of the Queen. I’m all for guys speaking out, and it’s about time that someone grew a backbone when talking about the guy, but to view him as anything other than the solid favorite here is just ridiculous. Need a reason? Here are four:

1. He’s won five freaking titles in a row. No player in the world is more perfectly suited for the surface or plays it at such a high level. He is so far ahead of the crowd that he can win on it even if he isn’t at his best. Nadal has only won one career tournament on grass. Djokovic has yet to prove that he is ready to play with the big boys. Behind those three there is little to get excited about. David Nalbandian, the seventh seed, should have been as strong on grass as anyone, but he was upset by a little known Canadian in the first round.

2. He is coming off a final at the French. Federer isn’t particularly good on clay, and Nadal made him look foolish in the final of the French Open. That’s not the important thing. The key is that he made the final. And he has for each of the three years. He is far from the best player on the surface, yet he keeps making it through the draw. He’s just that good, and forgetting about that is just dumb.

3. You don’t fluke into 12 titles. Remember the U.S. Open a couple of weeks ago. Tiger had a torn ligament and a broken freaking leg, yet he still won. He’s better and he wants it more. Federer is the Tiger of the tennis world. The trash that everyone else is talking will only make him madder and make him want to win more. Djokovic is on track to hit Federer in the finals, so waving a red cape in front of Federer is proof of just how smart the youngster isn’t.

4. He’s still the heavy favorite. Bodog had Federer on at 1/1 to win the tournament. Nadal was next at 7/4, and Djokovic was way back at 5/1. No other player is better than 16/1. Don’t be fooled into thinking that it is particularly close.

5. He’s coming off a win. Federer won the Gerry Weber Open, a key grass prep, in his last start. He’s won that tournament five times in the last six years. The only time he didn’t win it was last year, and he didn’t play. A win there has been a pretty good indicator of solid form in the past, so there isn’t much reason to think that it’s not this year.