Maddux Sports Blog

Starting today we are into the last series of the baseball season. We haven’t been talking baseball much recently, but with the playoffs around the corner we will be ding much more, and this is a good pace to start. The last series is only meaningful for a couple of teams - those trying to make it into the playoffs. The rest are either counting the seconds until their season ends, or trying hard not to get anyone hurt before the playoffs start. Teams that have clinched also spend the series trying to get their rotation into the order they want it to be in for the playoffs. For fans this weekend doesn’t mean much in most of the series either. It’s hard to care, and this is just a chance to catch our breath before the long playoffs.

So, is there any good reason to bet the games this weekend? Probably notfor the most part, but it seems reasonable to think that there could be situations where it could be worth tearing yourself away from football for long enough to make a bet or two. Here are three of those possible scenarios:

1. A definite playoff starter is starting. A playoff team isn’t going to risk anything going wrong with their playoff rotation. They may have to throw a starter out there that they will be using in less than a week in the playoffs, but they won’t keep him out there long. The odds will be set, though, based on the starter starting like he normally would. If he normally pitches for six or seven innings he might be pulled out after four or so in this circumstance. That means that the odds on the game don’t really reflect what you are getting - you are getting more of the bullpen and less of the starter than you paid for. That, in turn, could create more value for the underdog if that is the side you like.

2. A youngster is making a first start. The last weekend is occasionally when a team will give a player they called up a chance to make a first start. The public often doesn’t like inexperienced starters unless they are big name call-ups. In these cases, though, the young starter may be the only person on either team who actually cares about the game. That means that he is facing a softer opponent than he normally would, and he could therefore be more attractive at the price that he is available at.

3. A pitcher is going for a milestone. Pitchers might not be at their best at this time of year - injuries, soreness, and a lack of motivation because of the end of the season. A pitcher can have an extra boost, though, if they are on the verge of realizing a personal milestone. It could be 15 or 20 wins, 250 strikeouts, or one of the other impressive marks. It could also be something less obvious but no less meaningful, like a bonus in their contract. Whatever it is, if a pitcher has extra motivation then he could perform better than expected, and might be worth a look.

The NBA playoffs get going this weekend. The first round series range from the totally uninteresting - Boston and Atlanta - to the wildly unpredictable - New Orleans and Dallas or Phoenix and San Antonio. When it comes to early playoff action my interest in always in finding the potential upsets. I generally assume that the first round will go to seed form unless I can come up with a good reason for an upset. Here’s how I see the matchups breaking down in terms of the likelihood of an upset.

Virtually no chance of an upset

Boston and Detroit won’t be upset, and I won’t bother spending much time talking about it.

Chances are low but they exist

The Lakers are rolling, and the Nuggets did a nice job of jumping into playoff contention but weren’t exactly dominant. On top of it all, they have the distraction of Melo’s arrest to deal with. L.A. should be fine.

Yao Ming is out, and Rafer Alston will miss the first two games of the series. Houston put together a nice run, but the reality of losing Ming has come home to roost. Utah is deeper and healthier, and they should be able to milk their strong home court advantage for a win.

An upset wouldn’t be much of a surprise

Orlando is better than Toronto, but the Raptors shoot free throws well and they don’t turn over the ball, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Canada will be represented in the second round.

Phoenix and San Antonio should not be a first round matchup. These teams are both so good that they deserve better. Unfortunately, the same cane be said for most of the West (and almost none of the East). San Antonio probably has more talent, but not by much, and they were lousy down the stretch. This one is as close to a coin flip as there is.

New Orleans has been a great story this year, but they are inexperienced in the playoffs, and they have some matchup problems with the Mavs. The teams split the season series, and neither team looks to have a big edge in the series. Dallas should be looking to erase the memories of their playoff embarrassment last year.

An upset seems likely

Cleveland hasn’t been very strong since making the trade that changed the face of their team, and LeBron James doesn’t seem to be at the top of his health. Washington is playing well, and Gilbert Arenas is back from injury and is probably the best sixth man in the league. If there was just one upset in the first round I would expect this to be it.