Maddux Sports Blog

People will look at the draft from a thousand different ways over the next couple of days. I will certainly resist the temptation to deliver meaningless draft grades, but there are a few things worth mentioning from a betting perspective about this draft:

• First, let me whine for a bit. My football fan rules are very simple - I am fiercely and blindly loyal to Michigan, and I hate anything to do with anyone named Manning. You can imagine my joy, then, that Mario Manningham went to the Giants and Mike Hart is a Colt. I’m not sure what I did to deserve that.
• I hope people keep saying lots of nice things about Kansas City. They had a great draft, and they improved significantly, but they are still going to be pretty lousy this year. The more nice things that are written about them the more the public will  like them and the harder it will be for them to cover spreads. Most significantly, this draft tells us that Brodie Croyle is still seen as the best option. Ouch. I love overly enthusiastic support of NFL teams.
• It’s pretty obvious what the Patriots are blaming for their late-season comparative weakness - the defense. They picked three outside linebackers and two corners. It makes sense - the average age of their linebacking core is about 142. It’s also pretty bad news for the other teams out there - the Pats are very good at continuing to fill their gaps and stay competitive.
• I’m probably going to live to regret this, but at this point the Bills are going to be a team I expect to rise this year. They had a very strong draft - the first corner off the board, the big, impressive receiver they need with a great value pick in the second round, and a ton of bodies to fill needs. On top of it all they are like a new team because they get back the ridiculous number of players that were hurt last year. They won’t win their division, but they will be in the wild card hunt.
• I guess the Jets believe in Kellen Clemens. The only quarterback they picked was Erik Ainge, and he’s a third stringer if he’s lucky. I didn’t see anything at the end of last year to make me that that was a good idea.
• Proof that the draft can be cruel - despite what seems like a ton of picks, lots of good players go undrafted. Prime example - Adarius Bowman was a beast of a receiver at Oklahoma State with 20 touchdowns in 24 games, and he was athletic enough to play basketball  for the Cowboys as well, but he went unpicked. He had a problem with the cops and pot a couple of times, but bigger things haven’t scared teams off of other players.

My draft thoughts as they occur:

1:02 p.m. - To the shock of no one (I hope), Jake Long was the first pick. New York fans stayed classy by booing him. Nice.

1:12 p.m. - Chris Long goes to St. Louis second. The draft definitely isn’t as interesting to watch when the picks are already known. I’m fairly confident that we know that Matt Ryan is going next, too, but we’ll see what happens.

1:17 p.m. - Matt Ryan is kissing his mother, so the Michael Vick era is about to end. A good pick, and it should make things very interesting now. Teams could be active to get Glenn Dorsey. The guy who benefits most from this is Chad Henne - I see him getting picked inside the top 20 now because there are a lot of teams who need a QB.

1:23 p.m. - Darren McFadden is tempting, but I am not completely sold on him, or on Oakland’s need to get a running back this high. If I was the Raiders I think I would have to go with Dorsey.

1:27 p.m. - Goes to show what I know. The best part of McFadden going to Oakland is that it pissed off the Jets fans. I don’t really have any problem with the Jets. It’s just their fans that are so unlikeable.

1:31 p.m. - That means that JaMarcus Russell will be handing off to Mcfadden. It’s handy when players I don’t really believe in are concentrated in the same place.

1:34 p.m. - Dorsey goes to Kansas City. Good pick and good value in that spot. He could have easily gone in any of the first five spots. The only guy left in the green room is Vernon Gholston. There’s a decent chance that he could be there for a while. It depends how badly teams want Sedrick Ellis. If I had to guess I would say that the Jets would trade down to New Orleans or Cincinnati, and that the Patriots are trying desperately to move down as far as they can. On the other hand, the Jets may not be able to resist the perceived value of Gholston.

1:43 p.m. - Gholston it is. I expect him to be a mild disappointment in his career. When he’s good he’s really good, but that’s not all the time.

1:45 p.m. - I’ll be surprised and verging on boredom if the Pats don’t make a trade here.

1:46 p.m. - It’s more fun watching Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn go through hell than it is seeing the green room empty out early. Is that wrong?

1:51 p.m. - The trade did happen. New Orleans is on the clock and should take Ellis.

1:53 p.m. - Ellis it is. Now Baltimore should trade down to pick a QB.

1:54 p.m. - Sure enough - Jacksonville trades up. Baltimore is in 26 now. I could see them try to move up a few spots to make sure they get Henne or Flacco - their guy may be gone by then. Jacksonville needs D-line help, so Derrick Harvey would be my guess. I like Harvey more than Gholston.

2:01 p.m. - It is Harvey. Third defensive end gone in eight picks. So far the draft has been pretty predictable, but it should get more interesting now as players get a bit more interchangeable.

2:06 p.m. - Wow, that Jacksonville move was expensive - two thirds and a fourth. I still expect Baltimore to use one or two of those picks to move back up a few spots.

2:07 p.m. - Keith Rivers goes to Cincinnati. Good day for USC so far. Given that they couldn’t get Ellis I like the pick. This pick will work out well as long as the Bengals keep building their defense. He’s a piece, not a complete answer.

2:10 p.m. - Cornerback if the biggest need for New England, and that would likely mean McKelvin. They could have a good corner further down, though, so I would suspect a trade or a pick of Mayo or Albert.

2:13 p.m. - Jerod Mayo is the pick. I love this pick - Mayo is a gem at this spot. Buffalo is next. I will be shocked if it isn’t Devin Thomas. I don’t love that choice, but I think it is the choice. It could be a corner - McKelvin - too. I wish that the Bills would trade down a bit instead.

2:17 p.m. - It was McKelvin. I feel relieved. I like the Bills, and I think that this pick pays off better now and in the future than Thomas. They can get a receiver later on that is not a major step down from Thomas.

2:19 p.m. - Branden Albert can’t fall past Denver, can he?

2:22 p.m. - Yep. Ryan Clady is the pick instead. I’m glad, actually - it’s good to see that Albert isn’t getting rewarded just for being a Combine freak.

2:27 p.m. - Carolina is next, and Johnathan Stewart is getting the buzz. I saw this guy play in person and he was impressive. He’s excellent value here.

2:28 p.m. - He was the pick. I like it. Bears next. Probably an offensive tackle, but we could make this really interesting if they took a quarterback. Won’t happen, but I can dare to dream.

2:37 p.m. - Chris Williams from Vandy is the OT of choice. he and Jeff Otah were fairly interchangeable, so this pick addresses a need. I just hope that the long term plan isn’t for him to protect Rex Grossman and block for Cedric Benson.

2:39 p.m. - Lions next. My first thoughts for them are all gone. I would love to see them take Rashard Mendenhall. They need a running game, and I am really high on this guy. If they don’t take him then Arizona probably will. If Mendenhall ends up behind a decent line I could see him having the top running year of the nice rookie crop.

2:43 p.m. - Finally something out of the blue. The Chiefs traded up into this spot to take Branden Albert (presumably). I like Albert here better than higher up because he is athletic and versatile. He’s very solid value at this pick. Great draft for the Chiefs so far. Great week really - they got maximum value for Jared Allen, and they are so far using their assets well. Mendenhall should go to Arizona now.

2:52 p.m. - If Arizona takes a corner, which is a real possibility, then Matt Millen may have just made the first really good move of his career - trading down for more picks and still getting his guy.

2:53 p.m. - Sure enough - Arizona takes Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie and his one kidney. No complaints about that pick. They can get a second running back later on to complement James.

2:57 p.m. - Wow. The Lions surprised me with that pick - Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. If that was who they wanted they could have traded further down to get better value. I don’t like the pick - not the best available player, nor does it fill the biggest need for the team. That saves me from having to say something nice about Matt Millen at least.

3:00 p.m. - Houston is next. My guess is Jeff Otah, the tackle from Pittsburgh. They need line help. I’d really like to see them move down a bit - say with Baltimore - because they aren’t getting a slam dunk here, and they need lots of help.

3:01 p.m. - Sure enough. Baltimore moves up to get Henne or Flacco. Great move either way. I would love it to be Henne, but my guess is Flacco. Henne will contribute sooner, but Baltimore will probably fall in love with Flacco’s arm.

3:04 p.m. - It was Flacco. Very good day for Baltimore. They got their guy (not my guy, but their’s), and they gained some picks doing it.

3:07 p.m. - Strange how this game works - Flacco is being worshipped as the next coming now, but he left Pitt after two years because he couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko.

3:09 p.m. - Iggles are up. Wide receiver? I like James Hardy and Mario Manningham, but they both have baggage, so Devin Thomas would probably be the choice.

3:10 p.m. - Scratch that - the Panthers traded up for the pick. I would love to see them take Chad Henne.

3:11 p.m. - Nope. They took Jeff Otah to shore up the line and make room for Johnathan Stewart. Not sure I love them trading back into the round for that, but it’s not a total disaster by any means. A decent deal as long as they didn’t have to sell their souls to do it.

3:13 p.m. - Now the Bucs are up. Jeff Garcia could use a target, so I would guess receiver. See my earlier comments regarding the Eagles - I would like it to be Hardy or Manningham, but think it will be Thomas.

3:15 p.m. - I can’t believe we are at number 20 in just over two hours. This isn’t nearly painful enough to be the first round of the draft.

3:16 p.m. - Okay, I hate the Jeff Otah pick. The Panthers gave up next year’s first round pick plus a second and fourth this year. Too much for a team that is more than a player away from being competitive - especially when that player is talented but not polished.

3:20 p.m. - Wow. Another surprise. Aqib Talib of Kansas goes to Tampa Bay. I thought his attitude issues would drop him behind Mike Jenkins. My complaint about this guy is that he takes too many risks that leave him out of position. This pick really tells us what teams think of this year’s receiver crop - not much.

3:22 p.m. - Washington is next. My guess would be Calais Campbell, but the last hour or so has shown how sharp my guesses are lately.

3:27 p.m. - Another trade. After a slow start this is getting very interesting. My guess is that someone is moving up to take a running back.

3:28 p.m. - Atlanta is the team that traded back up. Probably not a runner, then - they have Michael Turner. Could be anything - they have holes almost everywhere.

3:30 p.m. - They took Sam Baker, the OT from USC. I like the guy, but I am surprised that they had to move this high to get him. Still, nice to see them spending to protect Ryan and Turner. No complaints. Dallas is up next. Now they have the fortunate situation of picking whatever running back they want now that Mendenhall has fallen. They might even pick someone else with this pick and take a running back with their next one if they don’t have a strong preference between Mendenhall and Felix Jones. If they did that I would guess Mike Jenkins - Pacman Jones can’t be trusted. If I had to make one pick it would be Felix Jones.

3:38 p.m. - It’s good to get one right again. It was Jones.

3:40 p.m. - Someone is going to get a steal with Mendenhall.

3:42 p.m. - Pittsburgh next. They would have loved an OT but there isn’t one worth taking. A receiver? James Hardy would look good in these colors.

3:43 p.m. - They took Mendenhall. Had to take the best player on the board. He and Willie Parker will be a great backfield. I like the pick, obviously.

3:48 p.m. - Tennessee up next. I’ll make two guesses - they’ll either go receiver with Thomas or defensive end with Campbell. I’d list them in that order.

3:50 p.m. - Wow. The Titans stretch a bit to take Chris Johnson, the ridiculous fast guy running back from the Combine (4.24). A stretch for a team that has plenty of needs. Nice kick return potential, though. Again, this tells us how little people think of the receivers.

3:52 p.m. - Seattle is up. I have had Kentwan Balmer penciled in for quite a while for them and he is available so I won’t change my opinion.

3:59 p.m. - Seattle figures they can drop and still get their guy. Dallas moves up to take someone. Either a receiver or a corner. I guess Jenkins, but wouldn’t be surprised if it was Thomas or Desean Jackson.

4:00 p.m. - Jenkins it is. Nice pick.

4:01 p.m. - Houston is up now in Jacksonville’s spot which they got from Baltimore. Either they stretch a bit for the O-line or they take the best available. DeSean Jackson and Andre Johnson would be a pretty fun duo. I think it is O-line, and I’m pretty sure I won’t like it.

4:05 p.m. - Sure enough - Duane Brown from Virginia Tech is the pick. He’s a guy they probably could have had without worry 20 picks later. It’s not too hard to figure out why Houston has struggled for so long. Lousy pick in my eyes.

4:06 p.m. - San Diego up next. I have had Brandon Flowers here for a few weeks. My opinion hasn’t changed, but surprises are everywhere.

4:10 p.m. - Right position, wrong guy. Antoine Cason of Arizona. No complaints - I like the guy, too. Good pick to fill one of the few needs on the team.

4:12 p.m. - Seattle up next. Still going to stick with Kentwan Balmer.

4:16 p.m. - Lawrence Jackson of USC. Wow. The world loves the Trojans - that’s the fourth one. A bit of a reach in my mind. They could have traded down again if that was their pick.

4:17 p.m. - Still no receivers gone. San Francisco is on the board. I think that they will take Balmer because he is available. It will be someone in the defensive front seven. I would guess.

4:19 p.m. - There it is - Balmer. Very nice pick for them. This defense is getting better and better.

4:20 p.m. - Green Bay up next. Have to think they would love to trade down a bit. A team wanting a QB could be a partner. If they keep it my guess is Kenny Philips of Miami.

4:24 p.m. - Sure enough, Green Bay trades down with the Jets. The trade is to pick Dustin Keller. Nice tight end and nice pick.

4:27 p.m. - Last pick of the round - the Giants. They could do several things - a linebacker like Dan Connor, a safety like Kenny Philips, or whichever receiver they want. I have no clear choice, but I’ll guess DeSean Jackson just because he is flashy and fun. Personally, I just wish that the Giants would fold.

4:35 p.m. - It was Philips. Can’t complain about a guy from the U in the first round.

That’s it for the first round. It was a very interesting one - predictable up top and crazy down below. A lot of teams filled some big holes. It’s obviously way to early to figure out who did well, but kudos to the Chiefs and Baltimore.

I’m going to leave you now. It’s been fun. I’ll be looking to see where the rest of my Michigan boys go - there is some real value in them in my incredibly biased view.

A few quick thoughts on draft-day-minus-one (incidentally, I will be live-blogging throughout the first round tomorrow):

• I can’t decide if I was surprised to see Tyler Hansbrough stay in college for his senior season or not. On one hand, he was a guaranteed first rounder who would make a few million dollars over the next couple of years, and there is always the chance that he could be hurt or do something to fall out of favor. On the other hand, his game is clearly made more for college and he will be the runaway early favorite for Player of the Year next year, so the risk is going to be relatively low. Given that he decided to stay I was a bit surprised that Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington declared, though neither has an agent so anything could still happen. If I were betting I would say that Lawson will come back for another year because this is a guard-heavy draft and he isn’t going to be in the lottery. He easily could be with a strong year next year. If that happens then Ellington should return, too - he’s likely a second rounder as it is. And if all three guys come back then North Carolina will unfortunately be at least as good as this year. No matter what happens, Roy Williams is having a very good day.
• The Raptors and the Wizards earned much needed bug wins in the NBA playoffs last night. Unless I am missing something that means that in seven of the series only one road team - Philadelphia in game one against Detroit - has won a game so far. If only handicapping were always that easy. The only exception is the Utah-Houston series. In that one the home team has yet to win through three games. Other than that series the home team is at 13-3 ATS.
• Larry Brown has quit his gig with the 76ers to free himself up to take a coaching gig. In related news, Larry Brown really needs to go away.
• Another interesting reminder of how tough it is to draft players on the eve of this year’s edition: Five years agao the Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson from Kentucky fourth overall. He was seen as a beast, and was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of guys like Terence Newman, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Troy Polamalu. He was healthy but unimpressive in his first few years, and unhealthy and equally unimpressive more recently. The Jets tried to trade him to Cincinnati in March, but it fell through. Now they have sent him to Denver for a conditional draft pick that will fall somewhere in the mid rounds depending on how much he plays. Robertson was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect, but he missed pretty badly. We’ll be able to tell the same story about several of the can’t miss blue-chippers this year. It’s just a matter of which ones. My first bet is Vernon Gholston. I was also thinking today of another Big Ten offensive tackle now that Jake Long is locked in on top this year. Robert Gallery was the second pick in 2004 out of Iowa. He went behind only Eli Manning, and he was as close to a sure thing as anyone. Gallery was only okay as a right tackle his first two seasons, terrible as a left tackle in season three, and was moved inside to guard last year where he was adequate but not much more.

The NFL Draft is just a couple of days away (50 hours and 42 minutes if anyone is counting), and like many of you I am in the violent final throes of draft fever. I’ve read (and written) so many mock drafts that I am almost blind, I’ve changed my mind on most players several times, and I have firmly embraced my biases (as a Michigan fan you can imagine how giddy I am right now - take that Suckeyes!). The only thing left for us degenerates to do is to figure out if we can make any money from this thing. Of course the sportsbooks are more than happy to help us out in that pursuit, offering us dozens of different props to throw our money at. Here are some of the most interesting:

First pick - I can’t find odds to bet that it will be Jake Long anywhere. Too bad - I’m feeling pretty good about that one.

Atlanta - There are reports out there that the Falcons aren’t going to pick Matt Ryan even if St. Louis picks Glenn Dorsey (incidentally, there are other reports saying that St. Louis is favoring Chris Long). I don’t see how that makes any sense at all, but if that is the case then there are some nice odds out there. Chris Long is 9/2 to be Atlanta’s pick, and Vernon Gholston is 10/1. The field is at 17/4. I still think tha tthe safest bet is Matt Ryan, but the price isn’t that attractive - 20/23.

Oakland - Darren McFadden is a decent fit here, but I am surprised by how heavily he is favored - 10/17.

Jets - Vernon Gholston is the favorite here at 1/1. I could see that unless McFadden is available (6/5). I also don’t want to rule out seeing the Jets trade down - if Ryan is still available then this will be a prime trade spot because New England would likely trade, too, and Baltimore wants him.

Baltimore - Their favorite is Ryan at 17/10. I don’t love that bet at that price - I don’t see how he is still available there. If he’s not my bet would be for them to trade down, but that’s not a choice.

Buffalo - I’m not positive I understand why they are doing it, but it seems pretty clear that Devin Thomas is their pick. That means that 11/10 is a decent price.

Rashard Mendenhall - You can bet on which team he will end up with. Detroit seems like the most likely choice, but it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest - 1/1. I’ll pass on this one.

Second QB drafted - I think that there is some value here. Brian Brohm is the favorite at 5/9, but I like Chad Henne’s chances a bit better, especially given he is at 9/5. The buzz is big around him, and I especially like the chances if Baltimore doesn’t get Matt Ryan. I don’t think they will, so I llike the Henne bet quite a bit.

Will New England trade their first pick? - I don’t see anyone that they are in love with, and they probably would rather have more picks than a high one. More importantly, New Orleans and Cincinnati could be interested in moving up to get Sedrick Ellis, and there will be a frenzy if Matt Ryan is still alive. The Pats are 13/10 to move down, and that’s worth a look.

Looking back on the first round of the NFL draft last year, there were really only a few players that were relevant from the start of the season. Adrian Peterson was a star from the first snap, contributing more than 100 yards in his debut. He revolutionized the Minnesota running game, and changed how you had to look at the team. Joe Thomas was incredibly reliable right from the start, and his play was a big contributing factor to the success of Derek Anderson and the Browns’ offense. Patrick Willis stepped right into the San Francisco defense and played like the Pro Bowler he became. The Niners were truly lousy, but Willis made them significantly better than they otherwise would have been. Marshawn Lynch caught Denver off guard in the first week of the season, and added more than a thousand yards on the year. Calvin Johnson had two of his four best games of the year right out of the gate, and immediately improved the Lions’ passing game. Others put together decent years and some nice stats, but those are basically the ones that handicappers needed to compensate for right from the start of the season.

That made me think - which of the likely first rounders this year will hit the ground running and significantly impact the outcome of their team’s game from the start? It depends on the team that drafts them, of course, but here are five that strike me as possibilities:

Jake Long, OT, Michigan - Long is a left tackle, but he will possibly be moved to the right side in the pros. Wherever he plays he has the ability to step in and contribute immediately much like Thomas did last year. With the proviso that he ends up on a team that has a quarterback who has the potential to improve immediately if he is protected, Long will be able to help give a passer more time, and should have a quick and lasting impact on the stat sheet.

Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State - Of all the receivers that have first round potential Thomas may not end up being the best pro, but he has a very good chance of being the one who starts off best. There are couple of reasons for this - he has a great mix of size and speed, and he showed a great deal of improvement between his first and second years out of junior college. Most importantly, he excels more than any other receiver at the draft at catching short passes and gaining yards after the catch. He is likely to go high to a team that needs a good first or second passing option, and Thomas will mesh right away as a trustworthy short to mid option.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois - Just looking at this list so far makes me think that those that say I have a Big Ten bias might have a point. Regardless, I really like Mendenhall. He won’t be the first back off the board, but he can step in and start immediately for whoever takes him. He is shifty and very tough to tackle, and I think he should have a very solid rookie year. More importantly, he will go mid to late in the round, so he will end up with a team that is decent and can capitalize on his talents from the start. This is a ridiculously deep draft for runners, but Mendenhall is my choice as the early contributor. Darren McFadden may end up having a better career (maybe), but not in the first year.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal - I wouldn’t want my team to draft Jackson. His size and durability don’t make me believe he has a long career ahead of him. Regardless, I expect big things from him early in his career. That’s because of his versatility. He can be ridiculously dangerous as a kick returner, and he can fill any number of receiving roles. I think that opposing teams will figure him out eventually, but until they do he could make a splash.

Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - As always, teams are valuing the immediate and lasting impact a strong tackle can have on the offense. After Long is off the board, others like Williams, Branden Albert of Virginia, Jeff Otah of Pittsburgh, and Ryan Clady of Boise State should all come off the board in the first half of the round. Of that group I like Williams best - Albert is a project because he is likely to be moved from guard to tackle, and I like the smarts Williams plays with and the competition he has faced playing in the SEC. If he ends up in front of a quarterback that is worth protecting than that QB should be improved right off the bat.