Maddux Sports Blog

That sound you hear is, I fear, the sound of floodgates opening. For a couple of glorious years now college basketball has been, in my mind, significantly better off for the presence of a few spectacularly talented young players - even if they only stayed for a year. The NBA’s change in minimum draft age meant that we got to see guys like Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley make the college game their personal playgrounds. That has made the world a better place. Now that might all be threatened thanks to a guy named Brandon Jennings.

Jennings is perhaps the top 18 year old point guard in the country. He first committed to USC, then decommitted and eventually settled on Arizona. But then he ran into academic problems. His first SAT score was too low for admission. His score in the second test was so much improved that the authorities guessed he cheated and he didn’t fight it enthusiastically enough to make us think otherwise. He took the test a third time, but he made the decision I dread before he got the results.

Jennings is going to turn pro and play in Europe next year. It’s frustrating to me because it is a good move for the player. Or at least it isn’t a bad one. Provided he lands on a good team he’ll play against decent competition including several NBA draft picks or future draft picks. He’ll also play against older players, so he will be well seasoned for the toughness and experience he will face when he makes his inevitable jump to the pros in a year. European basketball is so closely scouted now that he will get seen just as often as he would in college, and he may even stick out more if his style of play and athleticism are different than the league norm. In other words, on balance he’ll get an experience not too far removed (on the basketball side if not the lifestyle side) from what he would experience in college, and he’ll make a whole lot of money at the same time.

I can guarantee that there are a bunch of younger players watching this very closely, and even more agents. Going to Europe would allow agents to get their claws into stud players a year earlier, and the open availability of other pro options could allow them to leverage the NBA into better contracts down the road. This one year plan was working way too well to last, so a loophole was inevitable. I just wish it hadn’t been found so soon.

This season isn’t over yet, so it is way too early to be thinking seriously about next year’s NBA season. The hiring of Mike D’Antoni by the Knicks is so interesting in so many ways, though, that it is worth looking ahead for a bit.

The first place to start is the money. The Knicks clearly make way too much of it. They will be paying D’Antoni $6 million a year for four years. That’s on top of almost $50 million in dead money that they have paid or will pay Larry Brown and Isiah Thomas to not coach. Imagine what a competent, reasonably managed team could do with all of that cash.

There are some reasons to like this hire. The guy has averaged 58 wins a year for four years, so he can obviously coach. His style is great to watch, and offensive players who fit in love it, so the team shouldn’t struggle to bring in players when they have space for them. Combined with Donnie Walsh, D’Antoni finally represents a much-needed new era of good management.

That paints a pretty picture, but reality is far more bleak. D’Antoni’s success was largely fueled by the fact that Steve Nash is a hall-of-fame lock. Now he has to work with Nate Robertson and Jamal Crawford. That’s like trading a Porsche for a Pinto. This could all change if they get lucky and land Derrick Rose of Jerryd Bayless in the draft, but for now there just isn’t a floor general with the skill and basketball IQ to make D’Antoni’s system work. D’Antoni is fiercely proud of his system - he wouldn’t change even a bit in Phoenix even though that meant his departure - so it seems unlikely that he would adapt to his team. That means it could be a long year.

Zach Randolf and Eddy Curry ensure that the Knicks have no payroll flexibility, and that they won’t have the speed and creativity to make D’Antoni’s system work. Walsh will have to work miracles to get rid of them. There won’t be any real salary cap space clearing up any time soon, so D’Antoni will have to find patience he hasn’t had to show.

The Knicks haven’t known the meaning of the word defense since Jeff Van Gundy left the team. They’ve also only made the playoffs once since he left in 2002, and that was without a winning record. With that in mind it doesn’t necessarily make sense to look to D’Antoni as the solution to the woes.

Back to the money for a second. The fact that D’Antoni went to New York instead of Chicago even though the Bulls have a much more talented roster full of players that are much more suited to his style is a clear sign that the coach made a money-driven decision. That’s fine, but it is tough to believe that his motivation and inspiration will be all that it could be if (wen) the road is rough because he was looking to get away from Steve Kerr and bit into the shiniest apple.

I think that D’Antoni is a wildly talented coach, and I am not willing to count out his chances of winning in New York entirely. I just sure won’t be in a real hurry to bet on him next year until he gives me a reason to. That being said, the Knocks are instantly about 112 times better with him at the helm instead of the Thomas train wreck.

I’ve touched on it before, but I am endlessly fascinated by the home court advantage we are seeing in the NBA playoffs so far this year. San Antonio and Boston both won last night. That means that the home squad is a perfect 10-for-10 in the second round. It’s not quite as one-sided overall, but it is still impressive - home teams were 30-14 in the first round, meaning they are 40-14 overall. More significantly to sports bettors, Cleveland in their first game against Boston is the only road team in the first round to cover a spread.

Two of the series have already switched venues for their third game. Orlando won game three over Detroit by 25 points after losing the first two by a combined margin of 26 points. New Orleans beat San Antonio by 19 and 18 at home, and then fell short by 11 in San Antonio.So far in those series you only have to look at the logo on the court to figure out which team is going to be the better one.

You can take this trend beyond interesting and into the realm of highly profitable by tweaking it just a bit. It makes sense that the higher seeded team should have a fairly significant advantage at home in the first two rounds of the playoffs because, at least theoretically, there should be a fairly significant talent gap between the higher seeds and the lower ones when there are still four or eight teams left in a division. It’s no surprise that that is true this year, but the extent to which it is true is shocking. In the first round the higher seeded teams were 16-7 ATS, and they have improved to 7-1 ATS in the second round. That’s a combined 23-8 ATS so far. It’s not too hard make money when you are covering 74 percent of your games.

Before we get too excited about those numbers, though, we should take a look back to last year to see just how much a fluke this year is. That’s where it gets ugly. The higher seeded teams were just 8-12 ATS in the first round last year. In other words, the money was from the visitors last season. Whoever said sports betting was easy or logical? All you can really dois sit back and enjoy the craziness this year while it lasts, because it isn’t going to last forever. Unfortunately.

The NBA playoffs get going this weekend. The first round series range from the totally uninteresting - Boston and Atlanta - to the wildly unpredictable - New Orleans and Dallas or Phoenix and San Antonio. When it comes to early playoff action my interest in always in finding the potential upsets. I generally assume that the first round will go to seed form unless I can come up with a good reason for an upset. Here’s how I see the matchups breaking down in terms of the likelihood of an upset.

Virtually no chance of an upset

Boston and Detroit won’t be upset, and I won’t bother spending much time talking about it.

Chances are low but they exist

The Lakers are rolling, and the Nuggets did a nice job of jumping into playoff contention but weren’t exactly dominant. On top of it all, they have the distraction of Melo’s arrest to deal with. L.A. should be fine.

Yao Ming is out, and Rafer Alston will miss the first two games of the series. Houston put together a nice run, but the reality of losing Ming has come home to roost. Utah is deeper and healthier, and they should be able to milk their strong home court advantage for a win.

An upset wouldn’t be much of a surprise

Orlando is better than Toronto, but the Raptors shoot free throws well and they don’t turn over the ball, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Canada will be represented in the second round.

Phoenix and San Antonio should not be a first round matchup. These teams are both so good that they deserve better. Unfortunately, the same cane be said for most of the West (and almost none of the East). San Antonio probably has more talent, but not by much, and they were lousy down the stretch. This one is as close to a coin flip as there is.

New Orleans has been a great story this year, but they are inexperienced in the playoffs, and they have some matchup problems with the Mavs. The teams split the season series, and neither team looks to have a big edge in the series. Dallas should be looking to erase the memories of their playoff embarrassment last year.

An upset seems likely

Cleveland hasn’t been very strong since making the trade that changed the face of their team, and LeBron James doesn’t seem to be at the top of his health. Washington is playing well, and Gilbert Arenas is back from injury and is probably the best sixth man in the league. If there was just one upset in the first round I would expect this to be it.

The sports info that has caught my eye today:

• The Calgary Flames, my home town team (unfortunately), managed to do something last night in the second game of their playoff series against San Jose that I didn’t think was possible - they got outshot 27-3 in the second period. I am a bit surprised that either 27 shots in a period or three is possible. Disgusting. They have allowed more than 80 shots in the first two games. Not going to win a lot of games that way.
• It will be very interesting to see what Tiger Woods does this weekend. 14 holes into his second round he is still at par. That’s eight strokes off the lead. He’s not out of it by any means, but he certainly needs to start looking far less mortal pretty soon. Since we are talking about my hometown today, Calgary resident Stephen Ames is sitting in sixth and playing very well.
• The Orioles blew both ends of a doubleheader last night. I hope they enjoyed their time at the top, because the fall is going to be swift and painful.
• I was happy to see the Nuggets beat the Warriors yesterday to take the lead in the race for the playoffs. It’s not just that I like the Nuggets better - they should be more interesting to watch, and bet on, in the playoffs, too.
• Felix Hernandez goes tonight for the Mariners. He gets my vote as the unluckiest pitcher in the league so far this year - he has been brilliant and has nothing to show for it. He has allowed no earned runs over 15 innings in two starts, but run support and relief have been non-existent. He’s at home against the Angels tonight.
• New Orleans and the Lakers play tonight in a game that could decide the MVP. As much as I like Chris Paul, I think he would have to have a truly massive game, because I don’t see how voters won’t give it to Kobe otherwise - it is almost impossible to believe he has never won one, and this is the chance to fix that. Paul will have lots more opportunities.Unless the Hornets crush the Lakers and shut down Kobe.

The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports

Baseball - Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.

NFL - Jack Del Rio has signed a five year contract extension with the Jaguars. That’s quite an investment in a guy who has just one playoff win. Unless he has something in his bag of tricks that I haven’t seen yet, this just tells me that the Jags will be decent but not great for the next five years.

College football - There are two quarterback races I am watching closely in spring practices - USC because they have three decent choices, and Michigan because they don’t have any. So far it seems like neither school has an early leader. Michigan only has a week and a half to find one.

NBA - Pau Gasol played 32 minutes in his first game back. He had 10 points, six boards and seven assists. That’s much better than I expected in his first game back, and a good sign for a team that needs a boost.

College basketball - Memphis has suspended reserve guard Andre Allen for the Final Four. I don’t think it is much cause for concern. One on hand he averaged 14.1 minutes per game and played in 37 games, so there is definitely a hole to be filled. He only averaged 3.3 points, though, so chances are pretty good that his time was going to be cut in this game, anyway - Calipari will go with what works best without worrying about the future too much. I’m not going to change my thoughts about the team at all, though I’m a little concerned that whatever happened to get him booted could have an impact on the psyche of the team.

This is the second week in a row that I have written this same type of article. It’s almost as if it is a recurring feature or something.

Here’s what is bouncing through my mind on this hump day:

1. Memphis is still favored? - I am shocked. It’s not that I don’t think that they should be - I have them narrowly favored to win it all. It’s just that I never thought that the public would go this way. It goes to show just how short the attention span of people is - a week ago Memphis was doomed and UCLA was the power.

2. Did Tom Crean get a huge raise? - I sure hope so. I understand the allure of a major program like Indiana, and I know that coaches have gigantic egos that will make them believe that they can do anything - including turning around a broken program. I just can’t imagine the headaches that he is exposing himself to by going from Marquette to Indiana. He probably has no returning starters, he may very well have sanctions to deal with, and his program is as tarnished as one can be. He’ll turn it around eventually, but not before he drives himself insane.

3. Sean Sutton ‘resigned’ from Oklahoma State? - I’m sure that that was a decision that he came to by his own free will. You’ll be able to knock me over with a feather if Bill Self ends up there.

4. What is wrong with the city of Miami? - It’s not just the Heat that are disgusting - The Marlins are a disgrace, too. Mark Hendrickson was their opening day starter. I am fairly surprised that he even made a roster, never mind that he is at the top of a rotation. Of course, you don’t get much when you are paying 33 players less combined than the Yankees are paying A-Rod. That is wrong on so many levels.

5. The Royals are 2-0 and the Tigers are 0-2?!? - Need any more proof that it is a long season and true trends take time to emerge?

6. Are the Mets doomed? Cursed? - Pedro Martinez left his first game with a hamstring injury. He needed the dreaded MRI. Fragility - that’s why I am not as high on the Mets as I am apparently supposed to be. Pedro is far from the only one on the team who is a longshot to last the season unscathed.

7. Did you see the display of closing power put on by the Cubs and the Brewers on Monday? - Both Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne were dishing up meatballs that I KNOW I could have hit. It was as bad as two pitchers not named Brad Lidge can look in their role. I sure don’t like the chances of either of those guys being the answer for their teams.

8. Can anyone get past Denver? - I sure like the Nuggets right now - They have won six of seven, they have a pretty easy remaining schedule, and they are currently in a playoff spot. If they can hold on, and I think they will, then they will be incredibly dangerous. I loved how they bounced back from a lousy loss to the Suns to beat the the next game. A.I. may be a freak, but he’s ridiculously good.

9. The closer I get to Saturday, the less I like Kansas - That’s not a question, just a statement of fact. They could certainly win, but they will have to really surprise me to do so.

10. Is Pau Gasol ready? - He’s not 100%, but he is due back tonight. Think maybe Kobe is just a little happy about that? The last ten days have not been pretty for the heroes of Hollywood.

As I sit here thinking about the tournament, and about the sports betting world in general, here are 10 questions that are bouncing through my mind:

1. Can Western Kentucky be remotely competitive against UCLA? - Their center is Jeremy Evans, a 6′9″ sophomore who weighs in at a whopping 190 pounds. Kevin Love is taller and 70 pounds heavier. I think I fear for Evans’ life.

2. Is Lofton’s injury for real? - Tennessee’s heart and soul is reportedly wearing a walking cast after suffering a light injury against Butler. Maybe. Everyone says he will be fine for the game, and I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Pearl to mess with Louisville’s heads by overplaying the injury. At the very least it takes attention off the fact that the Vols don’t have a point guard.

3. Can Davidson do to Butch what it did to Hibbert? - Davidson’s speed and brilliant guard play frustrated Hibbert all day and rendered him close to useless. That’s almost entirely why they won. That was against the best team in the country at defending the field goal. Now they have to do it all over again against the third best team. Butch is a bit more versatile than Hibbert, but if Davidson can work the same magic then this game could be very interesting. If Davidson can turn it into a shooting contest then they win. And then Stephen Curry could run for president and win.

4. What will Mitch Johnson do? - The Lopez twins get the attention, but Stanford beat Marquette because point guard Johnson got 16 assists. His previous season high was eight. Texas is a huge step up in class, and Johnson will have to perform well again to help his team. Can he? What can we expect? He obviously won’t have 16 again, but Marquette plays solid defense and Johnson only turned it over once, so he is obviously in a zone of some sort. Good play from Johnson will allow the Lopez boys to exert their serious size advantage over Texas.

5. Is Xavier being disrespected? - Xavier is a three seed and West Virginia is a seven, yet the Mountaineers are favored by as much as 1.5 points. Is that unfair or is it a reflection of reality? I like Xavier much more than West Virginia in general, but depth-on-depth I don’t see how the Musketeers don’t have an edge. I also think that West Virginia is in for a shock because unlike Duke this team actually plays very tight defense and actually gets a rebound or two. I’m explaining West Virginia’s unexpected (to me) favoritism away by them beating Duke, the ultimate public team, and because Joe Alexander is way more visible than any of Xavier’s players.

6. Is David Padgett ready for the big time? - I don’t want to oversimplify, but if the Louisville big man steps up and has a huge game then Louisville will win because Tennessee has no good answer for him. Padgett definitely can do it. It’s just a question of whether he will.

7. Does Villanova have a chance against Kansas? - The odds say no given that the spread is 11.5, and my instinct is the same, but then I didn’t think they had much of a chance in their first game, either, and that turned out just fine. Scottie Reynolds is firing on all cylinders, and he will give Kansas a test. I’m not saying I am picking Nova by any mens. I just think it could be interesting.

8. Was Josh Howard making a statement? - In the first game without Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas’ de facto leader came out and had a huge game with 32 points. I’d say that that was a statement game, and that he is showing he is readying to lead a team that desperately needs a leader, but I have two reservations. First, it was only against the Clippers. I think I could get 15 against the Clippers, and I haven’t played on a team since junior high. Second, Howard was sent to the line a ridiculous 15 times, and he was perfect in those attempts. Lower the opportunities and his shooting percentage down to more reasonable levels and you are left with a more pedestrian game. Howard could certainly step up, but I am still reserving judgment over whether he will because this game proved nothing.

9. Can we fold the NBA East? - The Nuggets are sitting outside of the playoffs in the West at 43-28. The Hawks have the eighth spot in the East at 30-40. That is wrong on so many levels. There is a decent chance that a 50 win team won’t make the playoffs in the West. In the East that would get you home court advantage.

10. What’s wrong with Tiger? - How bizarre is the world of golf when a guy finishes fifth in a tournament out of well over 100 guys and you have to wonder what went wrong?

I want to take a minute away from the tournament for a second because it is on hiatus and focus instead on the pros. One thing I am fascinated by more than almost anything in the NBA is the impact of serious injuries on a team from a betting perspective. Given that, what is going on with Dallas right now is as good as it gets. Dirk Nowitzki went down to the ground with a crash against San Antonio, and it was immediately obvious that he was in trouble. It appears that he has sprains to his knee and ankle. Initial reports were that he was out for two weeks, but the team has shied away from setting a timeline and it could reasonably be much longer. It never seems like a big guy comes back from a leg injury faster than expected.

The Mavs have lost their best player while they are in the heart of a playoff race. It seems ridiculous to think that a team that is on pace to win 50 games would be in danger of missing the playoffs, but the West is truly ridiculous and that is indeed the case. They are currently in seventh place, but Golden State is right on their tales and can score a ton and ninth place Denver is right behind and has found their stride recently. Dallas, on the other hand, is neither playing particularly well nor consistently lately - they have won just five of their last 11, ad the losses have come in two three game streaks. The addition of Jason Kidd hasn’t been a disaster, but it hasn’t lifted the team particularly, either, and now they have to make due without the big man.

The statistical numbers are bleak for Dallas. Nowitzki leads the teams in scoring, rebounds and assists, he is tied with Josh Howard for most minutes per game, and he’s a strong second in blocks and right up their in shooting percentages. To state the obvious, he is the heart and soul of the team. They already aren’t a high scoring team - at 100 points per game they lag behind six of the eight teams they are racing for the playoffs with. More significantly, it seems more reasonable that Josh Howard will take a step back instead of a step forward without Nowitzki, and it is hard to see who is going to step up and fill the scoring void. Points could be hard to come by. Unfortunately we can’t look back to see how the team typically performs without the German giant because he has never missed a significant block of games.

It’s not just the offensive side of the ball that will struggle without Nowitzki. Dallas makes up for the lack of explosive offense by playing disciplined defense - seventh in the NBA. Unfortunately, Nowitzki is at the heart of that, too. The team will sorely miss his blocks and rebounds, and he is one of the relatively few big men who is committed to defensive play. Scoring fewer points and allowing more points does not seem like a formula for sucsess.

All in all, the outlook is pretty bleak. Teams can often rise up in the face of adversity - just look at Houston without Yao Ming. Unlike Houston, though, this isn’t a team that has been playing with an overwhelming amount of heart or passion, and they don’t have a lot of thrilling talent to step up and take the lead. Houston had Tracy McGrady, and while Josh Howard is a very nice player he doesn’t have the leadership or the credibility to step up and lead. That leaves the burden on a bunch of guys who were much better once than they are now. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors, either - seven of their remaining 12 games are against West playoff contenders including three against the two teams that are chasing them. They also are only at home for five games, and they have struggled on the road all year.

In the end I don’t think that things are going to go well for the Mavericks. What I am very curious about, and what I will be watching closely is what that means to bettors. On one hand the team will likely struggle, but the public is also likely to run away from them in droves because of the injury. If the team performs reasonably well then that could create some real value, but then they are just 30-36-4 ATS on the season, so they haven’t exactly been value stars to begin with. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Until I have a better sense I’ll probably stay away from them, but the Nuggets and the Warriors, both playing the Mavs at home, will be pretty tempting this week.