Maddux Sports Blog

• It doesn’t really mean much on the grand scheme of things from a betting perspective, but one of my favorite things in baseball happened tonight - Minnesota’s Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle. He did it in what was an epic 13-1 beatdown of the White Sox by Minnesota. The usually solid Mark Buehrle got the start for Chicago, but it didn’t go well. After five decent innings the wheels fell off in the sixth when he allowed five earned runs. That was much better than Ehren Wassermann was in relief - he allowed five earned runs and only recorded one out. This is more of the same for the White Sox recently - they have on win in their last eight. Buehrle and his boys were favored tonight, though you wouldn’t guess it by the final score.
• I like it any time the Yankees lose, but I especially liked it tonight because it was the first loss for ace Chien-Ming Wang. He allowed three runs in seven innings against Cleveland, but that was too many. Cliff Lee started for the Indians, and he was magical - seven strikeouts with no runs or walks in seven innings. Lee has been one of the truly great stories of the season so far. He’s mostly a journeyman type, though he was 18-5 in 2005. This year he is 6-0 in his six starts, and his ERA is a ridiculous 0.81. His strikeout to walk ratio is alright, too - 39/2. He’s far from the biggest name in the league, but if the Cy Young was awarded today he would be a shoo-in. The best part tonight was that he was up against Wang and the Yankees, so Lee went off as +131 underdog despite being essentially unhittable all year. That’s a nice bargain.
• There have been eight games in the second round of the NBA playoffs so far. The home team has won all eight. A monkey could make money on that. If only it were always so easy.

White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd just can’t buy a break. The guy has come very close to a no-hitter twice in a month, and both times he has come up short. Tonight he had an out in the ninth against the Twins  before Joe Mauer found a massive gap in left center field for a double. Against the Tigers on April 12 he had an out in the eighth before giving up his first hit to Edgar Renteria. Those two games are closer to a no-hitter than most guys will come in their lives. Floyd is handling his near-misses with a sense of humor, but that’s the kind of thing you’ll see when you close your eyes for the rest of your life iunless you finally do get one.

Though Floyd missed the magical no-hitter, I started thinking about no-no’s as I was watching Floyd’s progress. More specifically, I was wondering what the right thing to do with the White Sox tomorrow would be if they did get a no-hitter today, and what I should do in Floyd’s next start if he got it done. That made me want to look back at recent no-hitters to see how the teams and pitchers bounced back. Is there a trend? Here’s a look at the last 10 no-hitters. (Keep in mind that this is a painfully small sample so it is pretty much meaningless, but it’s late and it’s raining and I’m bored so bear with me):

September 1, 2007 - Clay Buchholz, Boston - Boston won 3-2 the next day against Baltimore. In a truly bizarre move, Buchholz was rewarded for his amazing performance by being moved to the bullpen.

June 12, 2007 - Justin Verlander, Detroit - Detroit lost to Milwaukee as favorites the next day. Verlander had a stellar outing next time out - four hits, one run and 11 strikeouts in seven innings.

April 18, 2007 - Mark Buehrle, White Sox - Chicago beat Texas the next day as favorites. Buehrle was solid in winning his next outing - three earned runs in seven innings.

September 6, 2006 - Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Florida was blown out by Philadelphia the day after this game. Sanchez through seven solid innings (three earned runs in seven innings) in his next start.

May 18, 2004 - Randy Johnson, Arizona - The D-Backs won on the road as favorites in their next game. Johnson allowed two earned runs in seven innings in his next game.

June 11, 2003 - Six pitchers, Houston - The Astros lost to the Yankees the next day, but they were heavy underdogs. No pitcher lasted three innings, so that’s not relevant.

April 27, 2003 - Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia - The Phillies won against the Dodgers the next day as mild underdogs. Millwood was okay in his next start - three earned runs in six innings - but he ended up without a decision.

April 27, 2002 - Kevin Lowe, Boston - The Red Sox lost to Baltimore in their next game as very heavy favorites (-190). Derek Lowe had what seems to be the typical game post-no-hitter - three earned runs in seven innings. He didn’t get a decision, but the Sox did win.

September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith, St. Louis - The Cards won the next day as favorites. Smith didn’t appear again for two weeks, but he was very good - a shutout over seven innings.

May 12, 2001 - A.J. Burnett, Florida - Florida won easily the next day at even money. In his next start (which was just the third of his career) allowed just one run in six and a third to earn a win.

So, what have we learned? Nothing conclusive, but a couple of interesting things. First, there seems not to be a consistent way for a team to respond - the teams were 6-4 in the following games, but were probably only barely profitable because of the lines. On the other hand, it seems like a pitcher is a pretty solid bet coming off a no-hitter. All eight starters that were given a chance to start again in their next start were decent. None lost, and all managed to maintain some of their momentum from the previous game. Definitely worth a bet.

I’ve been sidetracked by the draft for a few days, but it is time now to get back to thinking about baseball. Here are a few of the things that caught my attention as I was getting caught back up:”

• Barry Zito makes $126 million and now he is heading to the bullpen. That’s ugly but not surprising - he’s o-6 after all. Still, this is a massive fall from grace for a guy who was supposed to be one of the elite arms in the league. A lot of bettors are probably pretty happy to see him go, too - he’s been an underdog in every game he has played, and at some juicy prices, so a lot of people have probably been sucked in by thinking that his next game could finally be the one in which he turns it around. When he’s in the bullpen that temptation is eliminated.
• James Shields had a ridiculously good game against the Red Sox - a two hit complete game shutout with seven strikeouts and just one walk. It was no fluke, though - this guy can pitch. He was 12-8 last year for a team that only won 66 games, and his strikeout to walk ratio was better than 5-to-1. This year he has allowed just 11 runs in six games, and he hasn’t allowed more than three in a game. His ERA dropped a full point from his first year in 2006 to last year, and it has dropped more than 1.3 points so far this year. Best yet he’s only 26, so the best is still ahead of him.
• Since we’re on the topic of pitchers, I owe a mea culpa to Chien Ming Wang. At the start of last year I was positive that this guy was a half-weight masquerading as a top-of-the rotation starter. He’d gone 19-6 the previous year, but I had no faith in his ability to recreate it. He didn’t - he went 19-7 instead. Now he has started out 5-0 on a team that is otherwise struggling, He has had one disastrous start - eight earned runs in four innings against the Red Sox - but in that one his team managed to bail him out and win 15-9 to leave him without a loss. I still can’t say that I’m in love with his stuff or that he’s a guy I like to watch pitch, but I really have no choice but to admit that this guy is an elite starter. Now if only the Yankees had another one to join him.

I know that I spend more time talking about the AL Central than anything else in baseball, but it is just so darned fascinating that you can’t look away - it’s like simultaneous car crashes. I was just about to sit down and right a comment of some sort about how the Tigers were finally showing some signs of life - they had won three straight after all, and their offense was hitting on all cylinders. I was also going to throw in a comment about how troubled Cleveland was - they were supposed to be neck and neck with Detroit, and they were, but it wasn’t supposed to be at 5-10. I had been busy all day, and I hadn’t checked out the scores all day, so I took a quick look before making my comments. So much for that article. After Detroit blew away the Indians 13-2 yesterday, they are now trailing Cleveland 11-1 in the 8th.

Cleveland’s best pitcher is C.C. Sabathia. Supposedly. You’d never guess it from the mess that he put out yesterday - nine earned runs in four innings. That moves him to 0-3, and raises some real concerns for backers of the team. I probably would have talked about that for a while, and then tried to find a comparison with the Tigers that made Detroit look better - you know, to build the the argument that Detroit was getting better. So much for that. Justin Verlander, Detroit’s best pitcher, went out tonight and threw out another stinker. He allowed five earned runs in five innings, and unless the Tigers make a miraculous comeback in the ninth he will move to a matching 0-3 record. To confound my problems, I probably would have made some comment about how Fausto Carmona signed a rich new contract and promptly went out and sucked badly in his first game as a rich man. That argument is pretty irrelevant now that Carmona went out and allowed just one run in six and two thirds tonight.

The point is that I have given up trying to figure out what is going on in this division. To make it more confounding, the teams that were supposed to be fighting for the spot at the bottom of the league - Chicago and Kansas City - are instead dueling at the top. It’s things like the start this division is enjoying (some of the teams, anyway) that are good for sports bettors - they remind us that logic isn’t an infallible tool. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, so you might as welll just sit back and enjoy the ride. Enjoy the car wreck, and just make sure that you don’t get caught in it.

I’m sitting here watching the Diamondbacks pound the life out of the Giants. That’s not much of an accomplishment, of course - I could take all the guys that live on my block and probably play the Giants tight. What is pretty clear, though, is that the D-Backs are a pretty fine team. I’m not exactly going out on a limb to say that - the win they are pretty much guaranteed to get this afternoon will move them to 10-4, which is the best record in the league (tied with the surprising Cardinals if they beat Milwaukee tonight). Unlike some of the teams that have jumped out to fast starts (that means you, Baltimore), Arizona has the look of a team that will be there until the end. This doesn’t come as a huge surprise - they are the third choice in the National League behind the Cubs and the Mets to win the World Series in the futures market.

The thing I like most about this team is that, with the exception of Justin Upton (ore about him later) the team isn’t hitting at an unsustainable level. Many of the other frontrunners are hitting out of their minds, but the D-Backs only have two players hitting over .300. That means that they can basically keep doing what they are doing, and keep winning as a result. They aren’t wining a lot of games by just one run (just one of their ten wins), so there is room for their offense to struggle a bit more than it is and still be sufficient to keep them competitive.

Back to Justin Upton. This rightfielder is just 20 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, but you would never guess it by the way he is playing. He is hitting .388 with a ridiculous OBPS of .1143. It’s always a gamble when you pass the reins over to a guy so young, but he is certainly holding up his end of the bargain so far. He’ll obviously slow down from this ridiculous pace, but he has so much natural talent that the fall shouldn’t be extreme. This guy is the real deal, and he will be a big part of this team for as long as they keep him.

There isn’t a team out there that has a rotation any more effective in the top three spots than Arizona. Brandon Webb is obviously an elite starter, and his 3-0 start with a 2.14 ERA shows that he is right back in his own habits. Micah Owings has matured nicely, and looks as if he will live up to the potential he showed in his first year last year. He’s 2-0 to start, and will move to 3-0 when today’s game is finished. Danny Haren is also 2-0, the addition from Oakland who is making the switch of leagues look as  easy as it can possibly be. Add in Randy Johnson, who looked pretty good in his first action in a long time yesterday, and you have a solid rotation.

So, what’s my point? This is one of those teams that you will be able to rely on when you need a win over the season. They aren’t going to pay a lot because they are no secret to the public, and they won’t present a huge amount of value very often, but they are just a well built, reliable, solid team. A bettor needs a few of those in their repertoire.

Things catching my eye today:

•  I know I have been writing about my hometown a lot recently, but, well, I can, so you’ll just have to deal with it. I was as shocked by the Calgary Flames as I have ever been in a lifetime (most of it, anyway) of watching them. They fell down 3-0 in the first three and a half minutes against San Jose on Sunday night. Normally, the team would just quit when that happens. They didn’t. They tightened up, fought back, and won it 4-3 with a late goal. I never would have said this a week ago, but the Flames are worth a serious betting look. That kind of heart can be deadly in the playoffs.
• The Spurs got smoked by the Lakers this afternoon. They have also been beaten badly by the Suns and the Jazz in the last ten days. Not that it makes me sad in any way, but this does not look like a strong, confident team going into the playoffs.
• Jimmie Johnson won at Phoenix. It was the first win for Hendricks this year after they won 18 last year. I expect this to open the floodgates for wins for the team. They clearly have caught up in testing, and they are not the kind of team that will tolerate losing.
• Congrats to Trevor Immelman, but is it just me or was this a pretty flat Masters? It didn’t seem to have a lot of spark or interest, and it is telling that Tiger can play as badly as we have seen him play in a long while and still end up in second. With all due respect to Immelman, if a guy like him can win it wire-to-wire then it isn’t as good as it can be.
• Michael Beasley is announcing his decision on his future tomorrow. If he stays in school I will chop of my right foot and eat it raw.
• David Ortiz was benched on Sunday after starting the season 3-for-43. Ouch. Big Papi can’t be a very happy guy right now, and he is kinda scary when he is happy, so he would be terrifying when he is mad.
• The game that Ortiz missed was not a pitcher’s duel. Dice-K looked pretty rough, allowing four earned runs in five innings. He was the reincarnation of Cy Young compared to the Yanks’ Phil Hughes. The young prodigy got dinged for seven runs in two innings. If both of those teams lost every night I would be a happy guy.

When the Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for mostly underwhelming talent it was seen as a steal - a major coup. The conventional wisdom was that he was the most dominant pitcher in the American League, so he would dominate in the weaker National League. He’s only three games into his new career, so it is far too soon to draw any conclusions yet, but if he plans to be dominant then he is easing into it. He’s just 1-2 after a loss on Saturday against Milwaukee, and as such he has burnt a fair bit of bettor money up so far. That’s not going according to plan, but is it time to panic yet? Of course not. Here are six reasons why:

1. K/BB ratio - One of the most glaringly impressive stats that Santana consistently puts forth is his strikeout to walk ratio - between 4/1 and 5/1 the last four years when he has been at his best. This year he has 18 strikeouts and just four walks - a 4.5/1 ratio. I love that stat as a solid indicator of quality, and Santana is at a significantly high level of quality this year as he always is.

2. Run support - Simply put, he hasn’t had any. The Mets have scored just two runs while he has been in the game during his last two outings. The lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Cy Young would struggle to win under those circumstances. The Mets have scored more runs than 18 other teams in the league, and they have the real potential to do much better than they are, so the problems that Santana has faced will be less of a problem as the season continues.

3. Schedule - His losses have come against Atlanta and Milwaukee. Those are two of the better teams in the league - they should both be competitive right to the end in their divisions. If he stays healthy then he will pitch against Washington twice and Pittsburgh once in his next half dozen starts. He’ll look much better in those games. The schedule will soften up and he’ll get his chance to shine against lesser competition through the season. His first start was against Florida, and he had by far his best start of the year.

4. Not typically a fast starter - Santana has won the Cy Young twice - in 2004 and 2006. He has stumbled at the start of both seasons. He had no decisions in each of his first starts in 2004, and was just 2-4 at the beginning of June, but he only lost twice after that point. He wasn’t nearly as bad in 2006, but he did go 0-3 in his first four starts before finding his stride. If he is still underwhelming two months from now then we should be concerned, but not now.

5. It’s not as easy as it seems - Moving from the AL to the NL has been proven to be very hard time and again in recent years. Tim Hudson has looked no better in the lesser league - he has had the same number of wins in his first three years in Atlanta as he had in his last three in Oakland. Barry Zito seemingly forgot how to pitch when he crossed the bay from Oakland to San Francisco. Derek Lowe was lousy in his first year in L.A., and it took Andy Pettitte a year to find his way in Houston. Interleague play and better video technology mean that new pitchers aren’t as mysterious as they used to be when they switch leagues, and batters aren’t as lost as people may think. Santana is going to be fine, and it probably won’t take a whole season, but if it does that’s just fine.

6. It takes time to love a catcher - For the last 3+ year, Santana has been throwing to Joe Mauer every time out. Mauer is among the best in the league, and they obviously worked well together. Now he has to get used to another catcher, Brian Schneider. There are signs that the comfort isn’t there yet - Santana has never had more than seven wild pitches in a season, and he has three in his first three games this year. Schneider has to get used to a new team as well, and he is struggling mightily at the bat, so he isn’t comfortable or at his best yet, either. On top of all that, he has never caught a pitcher anywhere near the caliber of Santana before - he spent his whole career in Washington until this year - so he can’t help but be a bit intimidated. When Schneider finds his stride and he and Santana build a relationship then they will be fine.

So, if you are one of the guys that has lost money on Santana this year and you are trying to figure out what is going on, just don’t worry about it. You may want to lay off him for a while while he gets comfortable, but there is no reason to believe that he is anything other than the Santana we have come to know and love. Maybe we have been watching too much football and college basketball, so we have forgotten just how long the baseball season is, and how meaningless one game is.

The sports info that has caught my eye today:

• The Calgary Flames, my home town team (unfortunately), managed to do something last night in the second game of their playoff series against San Jose that I didn’t think was possible - they got outshot 27-3 in the second period. I am a bit surprised that either 27 shots in a period or three is possible. Disgusting. They have allowed more than 80 shots in the first two games. Not going to win a lot of games that way.
• It will be very interesting to see what Tiger Woods does this weekend. 14 holes into his second round he is still at par. That’s eight strokes off the lead. He’s not out of it by any means, but he certainly needs to start looking far less mortal pretty soon. Since we are talking about my hometown today, Calgary resident Stephen Ames is sitting in sixth and playing very well.
• The Orioles blew both ends of a doubleheader last night. I hope they enjoyed their time at the top, because the fall is going to be swift and painful.
• I was happy to see the Nuggets beat the Warriors yesterday to take the lead in the race for the playoffs. It’s not just that I like the Nuggets better - they should be more interesting to watch, and bet on, in the playoffs, too.
• Felix Hernandez goes tonight for the Mariners. He gets my vote as the unluckiest pitcher in the league so far this year - he has been brilliant and has nothing to show for it. He has allowed no earned runs over 15 innings in two starts, but run support and relief have been non-existent. He’s at home against the Angels tonight.
• New Orleans and the Lakers play tonight in a game that could decide the MVP. As much as I like Chris Paul, I think he would have to have a truly massive game, because I don’t see how voters won’t give it to Kobe otherwise - it is almost impossible to believe he has never won one, and this is the chance to fix that. Paul will have lots more opportunities.Unless the Hornets crush the Lakers and shut down Kobe.

The AL Central has been fascinating so far this year, and I’m not just talking about how bad the Tigers have been. The Royals are a team that I was relatively optimistic about. I’m not crazy enough to love the team - by relatively optimistic I mean better than they have been in four years, but that only means that they need a win total that starts with a seven. Even though, I liked them, though, I certainly didn’t see them jumping out to a 6-2 start and a perch at the top of their division. They swept the Tigers to start the season, faltered lightly against Minnesota, and now they have a chance to sweep the Yankees tonight. That is two presumed playoff teams that have fallen to the Royals. It’s unexpected, but can it be sustainable? How are they doing it, and can they keep doing it?

I liked this team for three main reasons - they have a pitching staff which is better than they get credit for, they have a couple of incredible young hitting talents, and they hired themselves a very good first time manager. So far, things have been going as hoped.

Gil Meche hasn’t been great, but Zack Greinke seems to have his mental problems under control, and he has been almost unhittable. Brian Bannister and Brett Tomko have been almost as good. The rotation is full of talented but underappreciated guys, and they are working well. They won’t stay as strong as they have been, but they don’t have the look of a group that are just counting the seconds until their inevitable collapse, either. There are several teams out there with much more to worry about on the pitching side than the Royals.

The young bats - Alex Gordon and Billy Butler - have been every bit as good as expected. Better, even. Butler is hitting .406, while Gordon is at .303 and leads the team in home runs and RBIs. Besides them you have a couple of guys who are better than they get credit for. First baseman Ross Gload has bounced around a bit in his career, but he has a .295 career batting average in almost 370 games. He’s hitting .345 so far this year. Mark Grudzielanek is seen as a journeyman by most people, but the 37 year old has hit a very solid .290 on his career, and better than that in each of the last five seasons. The fact that he is hitting .407 is a bit of a surprise, but that he is leading the team in batting average isn’t.  It all boils down to this - he team has benefited from hot bats, but they haven’t been overachieving to such an extent that the team will be significantly worse down the road.

Trey Hillman, the new manager, is the third and perhaps biggest element in the big start. The guy is a born motivator - just listening to the guy for two seconds makes you want to jump up and do something. Whatever he is doing is working.

This team has been wildly profitable so far - they have been favored just once, and a $100 bet on each game would have generated a total profit of $698 in just eight games. That pace won’t keep up obviously, but I do suspect that their rate of improvement this year significantly exceeds thepublic perception of the team, and that means that they could provide serious value this year. The last time they were any good - in 2003 when they won 83 games - the public never really caught up to them, and they ended the year as the fourth most profitable team in the league.

The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports

Baseball - Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.

NFL - Jack Del Rio has signed a five year contract extension with the Jaguars. That’s quite an investment in a guy who has just one playoff win. Unless he has something in his bag of tricks that I haven’t seen yet, this just tells me that the Jags will be decent but not great for the next five years.

College football - There are two quarterback races I am watching closely in spring practices - USC because they have three decent choices, and Michigan because they don’t have any. So far it seems like neither school has an early leader. Michigan only has a week and a half to find one.

NBA - Pau Gasol played 32 minutes in his first game back. He had 10 points, six boards and seven assists. That’s much better than I expected in his first game back, and a good sign for a team that needs a boost.

College basketball - Memphis has suspended reserve guard Andre Allen for the Final Four. I don’t think it is much cause for concern. One on hand he averaged 14.1 minutes per game and played in 37 games, so there is definitely a hole to be filled. He only averaged 3.3 points, though, so chances are pretty good that his time was going to be cut in this game, anyway - Calipari will go with what works best without worrying about the future too much. I’m not going to change my thoughts about the team at all, though I’m a little concerned that whatever happened to get him booted could have an impact on the psyche of the team.

Every year at this time I make a bunch of predictions about the baseball season as it gets underway. I focus on things that will impact the betting side of things, of course. I suppose that it is only fair to disclose that I am wrong more than I am right - predicting what will happen over 162 games is tricky stuff. Regardless, here I go fearlessly plunging into my view of how this season, which is currently in the midst of its third and final opening day of the year.

1. The Tigers will live up to expectations - The hopes are ridiculously high in the eyes of many for Detroit, but they can meet them. They have a stunning amount of power at the plate, more than acceptable fielding, and a very solid rotation. Justin Verlander is going to tear it up this year and has to be the runaway early pick for AL Cy Young.

2. Johan Santana will be all that - A lot of pitchers struggle as they move from one league to another, but Santana is not just any guy. He is an uber-freak, and he has a good team behind him (as long as they don’t face many injuries), so I expect him to pick up right where he left off. Even better, really - he’ll get the wins in solid outings that his teammates couldn’t deliver for him last year.

3. I’m not as excited about the Cubs as many are - I think that they are a solid team, but the rotation doesn’t do it for me, and the bats, though good, don’t have the long history of success that make me feel confident in their virtually certain success. They will certainly contend in their division, and the playoffs are a real possibility, but I’m not ready to give them the World Series yet like some seem to be.

4. Baltimore will be even worse than you think - They have absolutely no pitching, not much hitting, and no reason to be optimistic. Frankly, anything less than 105 losses would have to be seen as a serious victory.

5. I like Cincinnati - They would need some breaks and some quick maturity from their rotation, but they are packed with a staggering amount of talent both on the field and the mound. The upside of their rotation is as good as any in the league. Add Dusty Baker to that and you have a team that could surprise those who expect to see the same old Reds.

6. Sorry Tampa Bay, not this year - I understand the arguments that people are making about why this is finally the year for this pathetic team, but I think that it is still a year or so premature. They have some good pitchers, but they are short on depth. On top of that, their division hasn’t got any easier, and they are too young to stay strong all year. They will be better, but they won’t yet be good.

7. Seattle, Seattle, Seattle - I love this team. I loved them last year and they came through in a big way - they were the second most profitable team in the league. Many seem to think that they will take a step back, but the addition of Erik Berard and the maturity of King Felix makes me believe that the AL West is fully in their sights.

8. I still hate the Yankees and the Red Sox - Nothing short of an apocalypse will change that. I do enjoy watching Papelbon and Chamberlain pitch, though.

9. Prince Fielder may explode - I am watching the Cubs and the Brewers as I write this, and it is perfectly clear that Fielder did not spend a lot of his offseason at the gym or with Jenny Craig. Dude is enormous. I am not a tiny guy, but my wife and I could live fairly comfortably in his pants.

10. Barry Bonds will be somewhere by the end of April - He may be the worst kind of scum, but he still has a very legitimate bat and he’ll sell tickets like crazy, so someone is going to make a deal with the devil. Frankly, I don’t think that it would be a bad move.