Maddux Sports Blog

It’s time to move on from the Olympics and get back into what matters - football. We’ll find lots of different ways to look at things in the coming weeks, but to ease back into it lets take a quick survey of some of the interesting stories out there concerning the most over-watched and over-hyped position on the field - the quarterbacks. I’m interested in these stories partly because of the impact they could have on the field, and partly because the betting public will almost certainly overcompensate for the situations.

Chicago - The Bears made the surprising early decision to appoint Kyle Orton their starting QB over Rex Grossman. I think that that’s the right move, though I don’t get why they would have announced it now instead of waiting until after another preseason game or two. Regardless, the big thing to note here is that the Bears are in trouble. Orton is better than Grossman, but he’s a long way from good. A couple of years ago they showed that that can be overcome if the team is otherwise dominant, but that’s not the case this year, so it could be a long season in Soldier Field.

Buffalo - Trent Edwards is looking like a star. That doesn’t matter much given that it is the preseason, but it’s nice progress, and Edwards has been showing progress for two years. He has a system that he’ll be comfortable with now that his QB coach is his offensive coordinator, and he has the skills, and the team, to make a bit of noise. I’ll be very carefully watching watching this one - if he plays well then the team will be worth a bet, but if he isn’t clicking on all cylinders then the public might ride the hype too far and create opportunities on the other side.

Miami - I like that they picked up Chad Pennington, but I think that people are expecting too much from him. He’ll be better from the start than Chad Henne would be, but he’s still Chad Pennington, and he’s a long way from his peak. There seems to be a sentiment in the media that the combination of Parcells and Pennington will leap this team forward. I’m not buying it.

Cleveland - Derek Anderson suffered a concussion in the last game. If it is even a little serious then this could be Romeo Crennel’s worst nightmare. His way of managing the potential quarterback battle was to ignore it - leave Anderson in lace, and keep Brady Quinn out of sight. Now Quinn could get some valuable face time. If he plays well then Cleveland will have a situation on its hands, and it could get tense. That’s the last thing a team that is trying hard to make the playoffs needs to deal with.

Minnesota - This one scares me. The Vikings have the potential to be really good. All Tavaris Jackson has to do is not screw up. He’s having a heck of a time staying healthy, though. He has knee problems already, though, and those don’t tend to get better in a hurry. There’s no one else on the roster that I would rather have taking the snap than Jackson on the team, though, and they would suffer a setback if he is not ready. Again, the biggest challenge will be in balancing the challenge the situation presents with the reaction of the public.

The Jets - I just don’t care.

I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.

Jacksonville - I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.

Seattle - At 10/11, the Seahawks are favored to win the NFC West. This is a sad statement on the state of that division. I guess I don’t dislike Seattle. How can you, really? There is just nothing to like about them, either. They are the vanilla ice cream of the NFL. If they were to fold right before the season started it would take six weeks before anyone would notice. I just wish I had enough faith in the Cardinals (2/1) to believe that they can finally realize their potential and win this division.

New England - The Patriots aren’t going to be as good as they were last year. Perhaps not even close. That being said, I will be more surprised than I have ever been by anything in my life ever (and I am a Michigan fan who was expecting to beat Appalachian State by 30) if the Pats don’t win their division this year. Easily. Incredibly easily. I’m not the only one to hold this bold opinion - the team is 1/10 to win the division.

San Diego - The Chargers might not even have to work as hard as the Pats will to win their division. There isn’t another team there that stands even a chance of being elite in my mind. Not even close

Minnesota - As a general rule I try to avoid hype whenever possible. The problem here, though, is that I am not sure I can. Minnesota has a ton of talent, I don’t respect their division or their conference, and they have a decent schedule. I don’t think that Minnesota is the best team in the conference, but I find it hard to convince myself that they aren’t among the elite.

San Francisco - The last two years at this time of year I have touted the Niners. It worked fabulously for me two years ago. It didn’t last year. I’m not going to do that again this year. I wish I could - they have some things to like. They just can’t get their act together. This team is dead to me.

Oakland - Some people say that the Raiders could be significantly improved this year. Some people also say that Elvis is still alive. I don’t think either is true. Maybe they will win a game or two more, but they still have a long way to go before they are respectable.

Tennessee - Here’s a prediction for you - this is the last year that Vince Young will be a full time starter in the NFL. No single reason, just a collection of little feelings.

Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis deserves to still be the coach of this team just as much as Roger Clemens deserves the benefit of the doubt - not even slightly. The Bungles have been a mess for a couple of years now, and they are going to be a mess again. The offensive talent that Lewis has wasted is almost criminal.

Kansas City - The Chiefs are going to be the worst team in the league. I feel pretty good about the chances of that. What do I like about this team? Pretty much nothing. Maybe Larry Johnson, but he’s fragile, and I really don’t like his chances of holding up without a line to protect him or a quarterback to provide other options to distract the opposing defenses.

All sorts of interesting news that affects the sports betting world today:

• The Vikings are taking a big risk with Jared Allen. He’s a very good player and he’s in his prime, but they gave up three picks for him including a first rounder this year and two thirds, and then they had to ante up with a big new contract for him. He had better be really productive for several years or this can be a setback in a big way. One thing that this does do, though, is it makes me reevaluate my expectations for the Vikings this year and adjust then upwards - they must be serious about competing now if this is the investment they are willing to make. You don’t spend this kind of money and assets unless you think it is one of the final pieces in the puzzle.
• Apparently Memphis isn’t attractive without Derrick Rose. In a bizarre move, both Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have declared for the NBA draft. That means that all five starters are now on the list. Obviously the most recent two don’t have agents yet because there is very little chance that either would get picked, and almost none that they would go in the first round and get a guaranteed contract. I never thought that they would look to go now that Calipari has a new contract and super stud Tyreke Evans is headed there next year. Maybe Calipari just suggested that they go through the draft process for the experience and whatever learning they can do. Whatever the reason, I just hope they don’t do something stupid because a senior year at Memphis would probably be a lot more fun than a year in the NBDL.
• Pacman Jones is headed to Dallas. I would say that that is a much needed boost to Dallas’ secondary, but until he gets reinstated, shows that he can stay out of jail for at least a month, and is still in some kind of game shape I am going to assume he is irrelevant. I have no concerns about handling his attitude if everything else is okay - they have done fine with Owens.
• The Reds made a great move. They fired the essentially useless GM Wayne Krivsky and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. Jocketty did great jobs in Oakland and St. Louis, and he should do a great job of turning around a team that has lots of nice young talent but seems to be lacking direction. If nothing else he should provide some stability - he is the fourth GM in six years, so so stability is definitely absent.
• Detroit beat the 76ers easily tonight. The temporary period of panic can end and the sun will come up in Detroit tomorrow after a period of darkness.
• Not that it is surprising because he has always seemed a bit unstable, but Tony Stewart appears to have officially lost his mind. Reports say that Stewart is negotiating to lose Joe Gibbs Racing after this season to go to Haas CNC. If you don’t spend much time following NASCAR it boils down to this - Gibbs is really quite good, and Haas really, really isn’t. Haas has never finished in the top 25 in owner points. The incentive is fairly obvious, though - Stewart is a star, and he will be able to negotiate partial ownership of his new team into the deal. That will allow him to cash in even more on his name and his brand than he does now. From a betting perspective it means that Stewart won’t be an automatic consideration next year like he is now because his car will be behind in development to start, and it will also unleash a chain reaction of driver moves that could further confuse the landscape. NASCAR is a bigger soap opera than the soap operas.