Maddux Sports Blog

The Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) enter the playoffs as the NL East Division champs, beating out the NY Mets for the title in the final days of the season. The Phillies plus-119 RS/RA differential is second only to the Chicago Cubs’. This is the second straight season that the team has taken their division. The Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) won the wild card by one game over the New York Mets. The club’s RS/RA differential stands at plus-61; it is almost half of that of the Phillies.

As a club, Philadelphia’s staff ERA of 3.88 puts them fourth in the NL. Their .260 BAA is the highest of any NL playoff team and is eighth in the league. If pitching wins World Series, this club could be in trouble. Philadelphia pitchers struck out just 1,081 batters, which was 11th in the league. The Brewers’ pitching stats aren’t much better as the club posted an ERA of 3.85, notched a .256 BAA mark and recorded 1,110 strike outs.

Phillie starter Cole Hamels (14-10, 196 SO, 3.09 ERA) leads the team in strikeouts and ERA. His favorite pitch is the fastball, but he’s just as likely to use his superior change up when going for the strikeout. Since coming to the Phils from Oakland in a mid-season trade, veteran righty Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69) has gone 4-0 and garnered an ERA of 4.20. Blanton utilizes four pitches, using his fastball about half the time. He keeps hitters guessing by incorporating his curve, slider and change up in about equal amounts. Starter Jamie Moyer (16-7, 123 SO, 3.71 ERA), who has notched the most wins, primarily uses his fastball, blending in a tricky slider and a decent curve. Batters have been pounding Moyer’s fastball, hitting it 32 percent of the time. Closer Brad Lidge (41 SV, 92 SO, 1.95 ERA) has been perfect, notching 41 saves in 41 save opportunities. He has been unbeatable.

Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo (1.88 ERA), who spent most of the season on the DL, has been activated for the NLDS. In the regular season, he’s pitched 24 innings, giving up three homers, 22 hits and five earned runs. His bread and butter pitch is his fastball, which he throws as much as possible. Although he utilizes a slider and change up, his curve is his second most-used pitch. Lefty CC Sabathia (17-10, 251 SO, 2.70 ERA) dominates with his fastball, throwing in his change up and slider to keep things interesting. Starter Dave Bush (9-10, 109 SO, 4.18 ERA) has had his problems especially with the long ball. He’s given up 29 homeruns. Closer Solomon Torres (80.0 IP, 3.49 ERA, 28 SVS) has appeared in a total of 71 games. As a closer, he’s blown seven saves. His road ERA is an alarming 4.10.

The Phillies have smacked 212 homeruns, which is the most in the NL and more than any playoff team in either league. Their .437 SLG% is second only to the Cubs. The Brewers can knock it out of the park too, having hit 198 homers. Their slugging percentage stands at a hefty .431. Team batting averages are both relatively low—Philadelphia’s is at .255 and Milwaukee’s stands at .253.

For the Phills, first baseman Ryan Howard (.250 BA, 48 HR, 146 RBI) may strike out a lot (199 times this season) but he also has power to spare. He leads the team in homeruns, RBI and games played (162). Shane Victorino (.293 BA, 14 HR, 58 RBI) is tops in batting average. The speedy Jimmy Rollins (.277 BA, 11 HR, 59 RBI) has stolen 47 bases, while Chase Utley’s .380 OBP and 113 runs are best on the team.

For the Brewers, left fielder Ryan Braun (.285 BA, 37 HR, 106 RBI) is the team leader in batting average, homeruns and RBI. Braun has played in 151 games. Prince Fielder, who has been in all 162 regular-season contests, leads the team in OBP (.372). He’s smacked 34 round trippers and driven in 102 runs. Shortstop J.J. Hardy (.283 BA, 24 HR, 74 RBI) has power, while right fielder Corey Hart tops the club in steals with 23. He’s also driven in 91 runs. In the homerun area, center fielder Mike Cameron has 25 and Hart 20.

The Phils won their last and only World Series in 1980. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has guided the club since 2005, has a .539 winning percentage that includes two first place and two second place finishes. In the 2007 post-season, the Colorado Rockies eliminated Philadelphia in the first round three games to none. That will be a great motivator for this team. The Brewers have never won the World Series. The last and only time they made the playoffs was in 1982. They were then in the American League. This is Dale Sveum’s first gig as a Major League manager with any ball club. He’s made quite a debut at Milwaukee. Philadelphia should take the series. They are a tad better, have some speed and are more experienced than Milwaukee.

Excellent defensive display in the NFC East tonight. The line movement was interesting in that one, especially on the total. Three quarters of bettors were on the over, yet the total opened at 48 and dropped down to 46.5 or lower. A move like that generally indicates either that either a good deal of smart money is on the under, or that the books favor the under, so they want to do everything they can to encourage bets on the over. Either way, the books would have had a bad night on that front - the teams didn’t just go over, they obliterated the total.

Strange vibes coming out the Yankees camp. Jorge Posada came out in an interview this week and suggested that Joba Chamberlain would be better coming out of the bullpen than as a starter. He said that the tendinitis that kept Chamberlain out of action for a month or so was a sign that he can’t hold up to the strains of being a full time starter. I think that Posada s exactly right, but that’s not the point. What is surprising is that Posada would come out and say it when the organization has seemed committed to the starting path. That’s not the kind of thing that would have been tolerated back in the day, but now it was said in an interview on the Yankees’ own network. That’s all a round-about way of saying that I don’t have a lot of faith in this current admnistration in the Bronx.

Very interesting move by the Brewers today in firing their manager with two weeks left. It was the right move, I guess - they were in freefall and needed a shake-up. It just seems very risky and could backfire. On the other hand, I’m not in the clubhouse so I don’t know how Yost’s relationship with the team was going, and so my opinion isn’t worth much here. Either the brass in Milwaukee will look brilliant or this will look monumentally stupid. The best hope, it seems, would be for the Brewers to hope that some of the karma is ther stadium rubs off on them - The Cbus went for seven hitless innings today after a no-no yesterday while they were borrowing Milwaukee’s stadium because Houston’s was in the path of Hurricane Ike.

It isn’t official yet, but it seems that C.C. Sabathia ia about to become a Brewer. Word is that he will be exchanged for a four player package that centers around Matt LaPorta, an outfielder who is tearing it up in AA this year after being the seventh overall pick in the draft last year out of Florida. A few thoughts on the deal:

1. I like the deal from the Brewers… as long as it works out. The NL doesn’t have a lot of strength this year, so Milwaukee could make a run this year. They may not be able to catch Chicago, but they are currently in the wild card, St. Louis is the only team that is really close,and the Brewers should be better than the Cardinals down the stretch (even without this deal). This move significantly improves their rotation, strengthens the bullpen by allowing them to move a current starter into a long reliever position, and should give them the confidence that comes from a stud pitcher and a player with deep recent playoff experience. My only hesitation from a full endorsement for this deal is that it pretty much has to work this year. It is almost certain that the team won’t re-sign both Sabathia and Ben Sheets, and it is very possible that they will have neither player back next year. This is a bold move for this year, and this year only.

2. That being said, I am okay with them trading away LaPorta. He is hitting well, and he looks like he should be able to continue that in the bigs, but his fielding is reportedly less than stellar. It would be far more attractive to have a player like that around if Milwaukee was still in the AL where they can stick him in at DH.

3. The other piece of upside for the Brewers is that they will get two compensatory draft picks if they are unable to sign Sabathia after this year. That reduces the risk of the deal.

4. It will be very interesting to see what Sabathia can do now that he will get to hit regularly. He certainly has looked good in his occasional attempts.

5. I love the timing for both teams. Cleveland can get on with their season without having the distraction of the inevitable deal hanging over their heads. Milwaukee gets to see him on the mound a couple of times before the all-star break so that he is settled in and ready to go when action heats up again.

6. I will be watching closely to see how he adapts to the change in leagues. We have recent conflicting data on how easy it is for good pitchers to move over to the senior circuit. Danny Haren has pulled it off well, but Johan Santana hasn’t been as good as we might have thought, and Barry Zito has been historically bad.

7. Sabathia’s numbers aren’t great (6-8. 3.83 ERA), but they are deceptive. He was awful at the start of the year, but he has been fantastic since then. Few pitchers have been any better, and he would be even more successful if the Indians could score a run or two.

8. It will be interesting to see if the Indians rise up after this, if they give up, or if little changes. I could imagine each scenario being possible.