Maddux Sports Blog

I have had to laugh over the last 15 hours or so since the American League won yet another all-star game – their 13th in a row. The media has felt the need to explain this total and utter domination, and they have come up with all sorts of truly ridiculous theories. I’ve hard about the pitching, the hitters, the different styles managers embrace in the different leagues, and so on. All of that, frankly, is really, really stupid.

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Opening Day is here. Or, technically, it was yesterday, but today is the one that counts. The National Championship game certainly isn’t holding my attention here in the first half, so I’ll take a second or two to look at all the opening day action to pick out some interesting tidbits:

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Arizona Diamondbacks – 86.5 - I am all over the under here. A lot of people like this team this year, but I am not one of them. Beyond Brandon Webb I don’t trust their pitching, and there is a fair bit of the lineup that doesn’t excite me. They will be a solid team, but this is too many wins for them.

Cincinnati Reds – 78.5 – I wanted to be optimistic about this team. They have a lot of talent that is easy to like. I just think this number is too big, though. If it was 72.5 I would be all over the over, but this seems ambitious. I’d probably lay off entirely here, but if I had to take a side I would go under.

Colorado Rockies – 77.5 – This number is silly. They are going to have pitching problems, and they will seriously miss Jeff Francis. Todd Helton is getting old, and the rest of the starters have a lot to prove. I will be very surprised if they go anywhere close to this number, never mind going over.

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Baseball season win totals have started popping up on sports books over the last couple of days. As I have said before, these are by far the most interesting of the season long props in my mind. Today I want to take a look at the American League for value opportunities, and I’ll follow up by looking at the National League tomorrow:

Cleveland Indians – 85.5 – I’d certainly jump on the under here. I don’t trust their rotation, I don’t love their depth, and frankly I have been burned by this organization before.  They are a contender in the AL Central, but it is a weak division this year. I don’t think that they will go under by a lot, but I think they will go under.

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On to the National League. The American League was very chalky. Hopefully the NL is more interesting.

NL East – This is the toughest division in baseball this year. Three teams all have a good chance of winning it. Neither the Nationals nor the Marlins are among those teams, though.The Nationals are making  baby steps forward, upgrading  their rotation and adding some power in Adam Dunn. They still have a long, long way to go, though. They will improve on the 102 loss season last year, but they still won’t be respectable. (more…)