Maddux Sports Blog

Larry Brown has a new coaching gig. Again. The Charlotte Hornets become the ninth team he has helmed, following Denver, New Jersey, San Antonio, Indiana, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Detroit and New York. The prevailing attitude seems to be that he will be a miracle worker in Charlotte. Jim Rome went as far today as to virtually guarantee that the team would make the playoffs next year under his leadership. That’s quite a claim for a team that only won 32 games last year. But what has history taught us about what we can expect from Brown when he joins a new team?

The first place where Brown really established his legend was in San Antonio. He led that team to what was then the single biggest turnaround in league history - 21 wins in 1989 to 56 in 1990. That was impressive, but it is an incomplete story. Brown was also the coach when the team won the 21 games. He took over a team that had won 31 the year before and made little obvious improvement. It was only when the team added Sean Elliott from the draft. David Robinson fresh off his military duty, and Terry Cummings by trade that they were able to turn things around. Brown was in charge, but it hardly took a heroic effort to show improvement with that new talent.Of more note, the team’s number of wins decreased in each of the next two seasons and the team was knocked out of the playoffs in the first round both years.

His previous job at New Jersey could make Charlotte fans more optimistic - he jumped from 24 wins to 44 in year one. He didn’t win a playoff series in two years their either, though. With the Clippers he took over a team that was 22-25 and went 23-12 the rest of the year. The next year the team was 41-41, and Brown left for Indiana. With the Pacers he improved by six wins in his first year and by five more in year two. The team matched the 52 win total in year three but then slumped all the way to 39 wins before Brown resigned.

Brown’s first year in Philly had its struggles. Iverson was only in his second year. The team improved from 22 to 31 wins, but they still weren’t exactly good. A rapid improvement started after that, though, and they were in the NBA finals three years later.

Brown next went to Detroit, but we don’t learn much from that. He won the championship in his first season, but he was handed a complete team that had won 50 games in each of the two previous seasons. We also can’t really learn much from his year in New York because it was such a circus.

So what’s the conclusion? Brown is a very good coach, but he needs two things to succeed - talent and time. Not a lot of time - certainly less than a lot of coaches would need in the same situation - but some at least. There is some decent talent in Charlotte with Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace, and guys with untapped potential like Raymond Felton and Emeka Okafor. Adam Morrison will be back from a knee injury next year, and they will likely have a new lottery pick in the fold by next season. Brown will have something to work with, but he can’t work miracles, and it will take time for him to get his systems in place and to tweak the talent so that it fits his needs. In other words, I’m sure he will turn the team around (if he sticks around more than a year), but it won’t likely be next year. That could provide an opportunity for bettors - the public is likely to overcompensate for the Bobcats now that Brown is at the helm. This is especially likely early in the year. It doesn’t help his case that he has Michael Jordan behind him - he’s hardly been proven to be the most astute manager of talent.

A few quick thoughts on draft-day-minus-one (incidentally, I will be live-blogging throughout the first round tomorrow):

• I can’t decide if I was surprised to see Tyler Hansbrough stay in college for his senior season or not. On one hand, he was a guaranteed first rounder who would make a few million dollars over the next couple of years, and there is always the chance that he could be hurt or do something to fall out of favor. On the other hand, his game is clearly made more for college and he will be the runaway early favorite for Player of the Year next year, so the risk is going to be relatively low. Given that he decided to stay I was a bit surprised that Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington declared, though neither has an agent so anything could still happen. If I were betting I would say that Lawson will come back for another year because this is a guard-heavy draft and he isn’t going to be in the lottery. He easily could be with a strong year next year. If that happens then Ellington should return, too - he’s likely a second rounder as it is. And if all three guys come back then North Carolina will unfortunately be at least as good as this year. No matter what happens, Roy Williams is having a very good day.
• The Raptors and the Wizards earned much needed bug wins in the NBA playoffs last night. Unless I am missing something that means that in seven of the series only one road team - Philadelphia in game one against Detroit - has won a game so far. If only handicapping were always that easy. The only exception is the Utah-Houston series. In that one the home team has yet to win through three games. Other than that series the home team is at 13-3 ATS.
• Larry Brown has quit his gig with the 76ers to free himself up to take a coaching gig. In related news, Larry Brown really needs to go away.
• Another interesting reminder of how tough it is to draft players on the eve of this year’s edition: Five years agao the Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson from Kentucky fourth overall. He was seen as a beast, and was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of guys like Terence Newman, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Troy Polamalu. He was healthy but unimpressive in his first few years, and unhealthy and equally unimpressive more recently. The Jets tried to trade him to Cincinnati in March, but it fell through. Now they have sent him to Denver for a conditional draft pick that will fall somewhere in the mid rounds depending on how much he plays. Robertson was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect, but he missed pretty badly. We’ll be able to tell the same story about several of the can’t miss blue-chippers this year. It’s just a matter of which ones. My first bet is Vernon Gholston. I was also thinking today of another Big Ten offensive tackle now that Jake Long is locked in on top this year. Robert Gallery was the second pick in 2004 out of Iowa. He went behind only Eli Manning, and he was as close to a sure thing as anyone. Gallery was only okay as a right tackle his first two seasons, terrible as a left tackle in season three, and was moved inside to guard last year where he was adequate but not much more.