Maddux Sports Blog

Thoughts from the biggest of games:

7:36 p.m. - Not much has been proven in the first six minutes of the game. The teams are just feeling each other out and trying to figure out what will work. Neither team seems uncomfortable or ineffective, so it should be a good game. I am a little surprised that it has been a reasonably low scoring start, but it feels like that could change. I don’t think that we can rule out or elevate either team ion any way based on what we have seen so far.

7:40 p.m. - As a Memphis fan I am a little concerned by how effectively Kansas is forcing Memphis’ big men to take fouls.

7:48 p.m. - Neither Rose nor Douglas-Roberts are plaing their games, and both look uncomfortable. That should change. It had better for the sake of Memphis.

7:51 p.m. - The game has really sped up all of a sudden. The word I would use to describe it is frantic.

8:05 p.m. - Chalmers is doing a great job of containing Rose.

8:12 p.m. - Kansas figured it out at the end and owned the last four minutes. It will be key for Memphis to come out strong in the second half. Rose and Douglas-Roberts look to be lacking confidence. Needless to say, that needs to change. Calipari is a master of halftime adjustments, so this game is far from over.

8:33 p.m. - That was a quietly good half for Douglas-Roberts. He wasn’t as visible as he usually is, yet he is the leading scorer in the game.

8:35 p.m. - Rose looks like a different player in the first minute of the second half.

8:46 p.m. - Memphis seems to have forgotten how to shoot.

8:56 p.m. - Rose has a different look in his eyes the last minute or so. For the first time all game he is aggressive and looks confident. That is bad news for the Jayhawks. It’s not great for the sportsbooks, either - there is heavy action on Memphis.

9:10 p.m. - This is why Memphis is so dangerous - they haven’t really changed much, but they quietly put their foot on Kansas’ throat. It still could change, but for now the Tigers are in control.

9:17 p.m. - With 2:12 left in the game the foul parade begins. That means that the game should end about three hours from now.

9:24 p.m. - Kansas is using fouls to claw back as well as a team can. They are down by two with 44 seconds left. Memphis needs to calm down and keep their head.

9:25 p.m. - Let me say this before we have a final result - this has been a great game that is very worthy of a championship, and the winners will be deserving.

9:30 p.m. - After all that, the foul shooting came back to haunt Memphis. They are going to overtime instead of cutting down the nets because Douglas-Roberts and Rose couldn’t shoot fouls at the end. Mario Chalmers will never have to buy a drink in the state of Kansas again.

9:35 p.m. - Statement of the obvious - not having Dorsey in overtime is bad news for Memphis.

9:37 p.m. - What a stunning turn of fate. Memphis has fallen apart when they had it in the palms of their hands. All the credit in the world to Kansas at this point.

9:42 p.m. - Maybe finally hitting a shot will make a difference, but Memphis looks like they have forgotten how to play basketball. They have given up everything that got them to where they are.

9:48 p.m. - Well, congratulations Kansas. They turned their game around and asserted themselves when it mattered. That one is going to burn in the throats of Calipari and the Memphis players for a long, long time.

9:50 p.m. - College basketball is over for the year. Now what do we do?

That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? Few people ever thought that Memphis and Kansas would be playing in the final game, so we didn’t spend a lot of time thinking about what would happen if they did. THe public seems to have a pretty good feeling about Memphis. More than two-thirds of bets placed have been on Memphis, and the line has moved significantly from where it opened with Kansas as 1.5 point favorites to the current level of Memphis -2.  So, how is this game going to turn out?

If you go by form of the last couple of weeks then one team is going to blow out the other, and it will only be interesting for the first half hour or so. That seems unlikely in this game, but then it has seemed unlikely in a lot of games that have followed that form, too.

Some experts are saying that it is going to be a defensive battle. There is reason to believe that that could be true. Both teams have played outstanding defense recently, and both did a very good job of shutting down players who had been punishing other teams all tournament. Both teams have the ability to shut down the other team, and both have shown at times this year that they can be frustrated by the right defense. So, a defensive battle could happen.

Unfortunately, so could an offensive battle. Both teams are coming off games that they mostly scored at will, they both have dynamic, explosive offensive weapons, and both can be deadly if they get hot. Kansas has several dangerous offensive weapons, and Memphis has a deadly set of guards of their own. Both teams are stunningly athletic and tough to control. This one could light the board up.

So, what’s going to happen? Well, based on my thought process so far, either Kansas or Memphis is going to win a game that will either be a low scoring defensive battle, a high scoring thrill-fest, or some combination of the two. Helpful, isn’t it? All I can say for sure is that my gut says Memphis, it has been saying that since before the tournament started, that’s worked pretty well for me so far, so I am going to go with it again. I’ll check in throughout the game to see how it is working and share what I am seeing.

I’m going to weigh in tomorrow with in-game analysis during both games. Until then, I just wanted to share a couple of interesting things that have popped up today and provide us with more to think about as we try to make winning picks on the big games:

Kansas loses a player - The Jayhawks become the second team to have to cope with the loss of a minute-eating reserve. Unlike Memphis, though, this was not for disciplinary reasons. In a bizarre incident, guard Rodrick Stewart broke his kneecap in an open practice today. He was mugging for the crowd by doing a big slam and he obviously landed very badly. Stewart, a senior, added just 2.8 points per game, but was good for 11.6 minutes. Like the Allen situation with Memphis situation, I’m not too worried about this one - teams are very likely to shorten their bench and rely more heavily on their starters in a game that is so crucial as this. That’s especially the case when the season ends with a loss, and is almost over with a win, so there is no future to save your players for.

The ‘experts’ weigh in - It is time for the paid geniuses to make their wise picks. There is an interesting contrast between two of the major media outlets. SI.com asked five of their writers who would win. Four came up with UCLA as champions, with three having them beat North Carolina in the final. The fourth has North Carolina beating Memphis. ESPN is a bit different. Three of their five experts has Memphis beating UCLA, though none have Memphis winning it all. Two of them have Kansas winning it all, while UCLA and North Carolina get the nod once. The boldest pick is that he team that is playing best in the final will win it. That’s how you really go out on a limb. If you buy into these expert opinions at all then you have to think that UCLA presents pretty good value in their Saturday game since they are underdogs. The SI writers might want to make a futures bet, too - the Bruins are the longest shots on the board to win it all at 16/5 according to Bodog. Kansas is 3/1, Memphis is 27/10, and North Carolina is fairly significantly favored at 8/5.

The books like their number in the North Carolina game - Almost 80 percent of the bets made so far have been on the Tar Heels, yet the number is still at the -3 that it opened at in most places. That either means that the smart money is hitting Kansas hard enough to balance things out, or that the books are willing to expose themselves at this number. Memphis has had about two thirds of the action, and the line has moved from -1 to -2, so that one is acting more as expected.