Maddux Sports Blog

1. Notre Dame is awful. I was pretty sure that the experts who were saying that Notre Dame was going to win nine or ten games this year were crazy. Now I know for sure. They rallied to beat San Diego State, but that’s not much of an accomplishment when you are playing one of the worst teams in division one and you are favored by 21.5 points. The Irish looked confused, lethargic, unprepared and very predictable. They were sloppy, and they got lucky. Charlie Weis is a terrible coach, and I have no faith in his ability to turn ths mess around.

2. Peyton Manning is human. The Colts just didn’t look good on Sunday against the Bears. Manning’s numbers were decent, but he just couldn’t get anything going, he didn’t look comfortable, and the Colts could never establish the run. I’ve repeatedly suggested that the Colts are in for a step back this year, and I’m feeling better about that tonight. I would love nothing more than to be right about that one. I think it is especially striking that the team was opening a new stadium and yet they looked like they didn’t care.

3. East Carolina is no fluke. It doesn’t take a genius to figure this one out. When a Conference USA team beats Virginia Tech and then dismantles West Virginia in consecutive weeks they are doing something right. I know which team I am going to boldly pick to win the C-USA East.

4. There is no need to panic about Ohio State. Beanie Wells wasn’t playing, no one cared about playing Ohio, and the last thing they wanted to do before playing USC is risk an injury or let the Trojans see into anything meaningful from their gameplan. I’m not saying the Buckeyes will win, but I do know that this will help make their odds more attractive.

5. Oklahoma is really good. I was undecided about this team before the season, but I am sold now. Sam Bradford has been spectacular. Ryan Broyles made a heck of a debut. The offensive line is amazing. The Big 12 is tough, and the Sooners have a tough schedule, but I have high expectations for them.

6. The AFC is a mess. Things seemed so straight forward a couple of days ago. But then the Colts lost. And the Jags. And the Chargers. The Pats won, but suffered the worst possible loss in Brady and could be in trouble. It’s too early to panic, of course, but if today’s results didn’t shake your confidence a bit then you aren’t human. What are the chances of all those losses hapening in the same weekend? There were a lot of seemingly safe moneyline parlays lost this weekend.

7. BYU was disappointing. The Cougars wanted to be a BCS buster. Those hopes are still alive, but they have a heck of a lot of work to do. The Huskies aren’t that good, yet they came within a terrible call from a referee of a win.

8. The Bills are legit. Seattle wasn’t good, and they have no receivers right now, but Buffalo still was impressive. They played a pretty complete game, and have to be considered a legitimate outside shot at a playoff spot. I hope people don’t catch on quickly so they can delier some ATS pleasure.

9. Arkansas State is a great story. Last week they upset Texas A&M. This week they scored 83 points. The Sun Belt wasn’t supposed to be competitive, but now it certainly is. These guys play Alabama this year in a game that could give Saban nightmares if these guys haven’t come down to earth by then.

10. The Chiefs are doomed. So are the Rams. And the Bengals. I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again - Marvin Lewis is the worst coach in the NFL and desperately needs to be fired. He’ll run that team into the ground if they don’t get him out of there. I guess he pretty much has already.

As we get down to the point where we can start counting down to the NFL season in hours or even minutes, I find myself constantly looking at the upcoming season from every different angle. It will be a very good thing when the season finally gets underway, because then I can’t start looking at what actually happens instead of driving myself crazy thinking about what might happen. Until then, though, all I can do is ask questions I can’t answer. Here are ten of those questions that keep coming back to the top of my mind:

1. Does 0-4 matter? - The Patriots were absolutely brutal in the preseason. If I thought that that mattered then I would be worried about the team that are still assumed to be the class of the AFC. It’s not that simple, of course. Bill Belichick has an almost irrational disdain for the preseason, and his star quarterback has been missing in action. It would be easy to read between the lines and see brewing troubles in football paradise, but ts too early to do that yet. Isn’t it?

2. How long will public insanity last with the Jets? - I don’t have a lot of interest in how Brett Favre will do with the Jets. I’m bored by the story, and I’m sure he’ll look like what he is - a hall of famer surrounded by unfamiliar talent who is at the head of a decent team which will never be mistaken for a really good one. What I do want to know, though, is how long it is going to take for the public honeymoon with the team to wear off. Until Favre is viewed mostly as just another quarterback then the public won’t be obective about the Jets and the lines might be out of whack. The novelty factor is just annoying.

3. How’s it go, Joe? - The Joe Flacco situation in Baltimore is truly bizarre. Halfway through camp he was clearly the third stringer as he should be given his relative inexpereince (the guy didn’t even play division one ball). But then Boller got hurt and so did Smith. Now Flacco has to start the season as the man, and we have to figure out just how bad that could be. There’s not a lot of reason to be optimistic about this rookie quarterback class right now. Matt Ryan has looked good, but that’s about it. Brian Brohm couldn’t beat out Matt Flynn for the backup position in Green Bay, Chad Henne has done okay, but the Dolphins weren’t ready to trust him yet, and Andre Woodson was cut loose by the Giants in a stunning fall from grace. Those guys were in the same conversations as Flacco, so it makes sense that their lack of success, and the lack of eye-popping performance from Flacco, should make us uneasy about the start of the year in Baltimore.

4. How about Merriman’s knee? - I really have no interest in the debate over whether Shawne Merriman is doing the right thing in playing through his injury instead of getting surgery. My instinct would be to get it, but then I don’t know what the knee feels like, and I have never been a world class linebacker working towards a massive new contract, so my opinion is worthless. I am interested in two things about the story, though - will the situation negatively impact the Chargers’ defense, and will it provide a meaningful distraction for the team now and in the future?

5. Is JaMarcus Russell for real? - I find it odd that there isn’t much buzz about Russell considering he is a former number one pick about to take over his team. He gets talked about, but not as much as some players. Maybe that’s because I’m far from the only one who doesn’t have a good feeling about him. The team around him just isn’t that good, and last year and in the preseason he hasn’t done much to make us think that he will be able to overcome that. He should be helped by having a good running game to rely on, but I get the sense ths could be a long year for the boys in black.

6. Can Adrian Peterson get better? - Peterson was the most exciting part of the season last year. Things could go two ways from here. She could get even better and move towards hs goal or 2,000 yards in a season. Or injuries, opponents’ familiarity, and offensive line issues could conspire to make this year look worse than last year. How he does will go a long way to determining how well the Vikings do.

7. Will the Colts be good? - It’s partly because I really want it to be true, but I can’t get over this sense I have that this could be the year the Colts take a step backwards. Tony Dungy doesn’t seem entirely committed to football, there are obvious questions around Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison isn’t Marvin Harrison anymore, the running game is unsettled - there are just a lot of reasons to think that this team might not be as good as expected.

8. Will the Chiefs win a game? - Probably, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it happening often.

The biggest annual farce of the football season takes place this evening - The Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. Each year, two teams that aren’t even close to ready to play let their rookies have a scrimmage and NBC covers it. It’s a total joke. The only thing that redeems it is that their is a betting line. Betting on this game is absolutely ridiculous, but it’s better than nothing. I guess. Washingtn in favored by six points over the Colts, and the total is 31.5. Every second I think about this game costs me brain cells, but here’s a quick breakdown of the basic points.

1. The Colts will have no one there. Manning, Harrison, Freeney and Sanders are all out. The trip to Canton is optional for the rest of the veterans. Only rookies have to play, and they will get the majority of the time. This team will bear no resemblance at all to the actual Colts.

2. Tony Dungy hates the preseason. He is 2-11 in his last 13 games, so he obviously doesn’t even try. He views it just as extra practice. He has won the first game of the preseason once in the last five years.

3. Jim Zorn is in his first game as a head coach. He spent the last seven years in Seattle, and they tended to play pretty hard in the preseason. They were 7-5 straight up and ATS in their last three years there. We can expect a better effort from Zorn than from Dungy.

4. The starters for Washington will see some playing time. The offense is scheduled to play two series, or 12-15 plays. That’s not much, but way more than the Colts’ regular will play. Last year Manning took just 13 snaps in the first two games combined, and that was when Indy had four games,not five like they do now.

5. Washington legends Art Monk and Darell Green are being inducted into the Hall this weekend. That means that Redskins brass will be in town, and Canton should be full of Washington fans. Jim Zorn has a lot to prove in his new gig, and he should view this game as an opportunity to start doing that given the significance of the weekend for his team. That should be enough to give them a big boost, and, in my view, a likely cover.

I’m going to avoid talking about the All-Star game before it happens because, well, it bores the hell out of me. I love baseball as much as the next guy, but I don’t think it lends itself particularly well to an exhibition format - especially one that none of the players really care about. If pitchers were all supposed to only pitch an inning a game then they’d all be called closers, and each team would have 18 of them. If I had to I would bet on the American League, but I would rather bet on cricket.

While I am avoiding that topic I need another, and I want to revisit something I discussed yesterday - my nemesis, Peyton Manning. There are a few more details coming out of Indianapolis about his situation, and it makes for some interesting pondering.

Given how private Manning and the Colts usually are, it struck me as odd that a story appeared in the Indianapolis Star suggesting that Manning might miss the first game of the season. That struck me as the kind of thing that doesn’t appear accidentally. Even though the team has repeatedly said Manning will be ready, the article struck me as potentially a way to at least advance the possibility that he won’t be. It also points out a problem that Indy has had ever since Manning arrived in town - he pretty much has to stay healthy because they have no other options. Let’s play a little game. Which one of these guys isn’t an Indy backup - Jim Sorgi, Ryan Dawson, Josh Betts? It’s Dawson, but you probably had to think about it, didn’t you? Manning has been ridiculously healthy, but that may not last in this league. Brett Favre is obviously a complete fluke, not a guy to model a franchise after.

Sorgi has obviously never had a start, and he has never played meaningful time in a game that matters when it was on the line. Betts replaced Ben Roethlisberger at Miami of Ohio, but he was undrafted when he graduated. He’s never appeared in a regular season game, and he spent his first season on the practice roster. Neither guy is anywhere close to ready to step in and fill in if Manning isn’t ready.

I really don’t understand why the Colts would put themselves in a situation like this. It makes no sense for their team, and it is very frustrating for bettors - at least teams with an adequate backup might present some value if the starter is hurt. The public will immediately bet any value out of a Manning-less Colts game.

Just one final thought. How excited to do think that the Colts organization would be about opening their fancy new stadium against the Bears on national TV with Sorgi under center. No one will be cheering for him to get healthy more than owner Jim Irsay.

I was passing some time tonight by browsing around the odds at Pinnacle looking for anything interesting (it was a slow night, obviously). As I did that a few lines of interest popped out that are worth a comment:

Men’s Olympic soccer - Anything can happen in a short tournament, but it would be a major upset of the winner of this tournament wasn’t either Argentina or Brazil. They are just that much better than anyone else. Interestingly, they are priced in such a way that you could bet both if you wanted and still make money if you were right. Argentina is +188 and Brazil is at +238 to win them all. That’s not bad for heavy favorites at this point.

Men’s Olympic basketball - There is a prop asking whether the U.S. will win gold. Yes is -297 and no is +277. I absolutely think that the Americans should be favored, and they will have to have a good excuse not to win, but I still think that there is probably value in betting against them here. With the quality that is in this tournament and their performance in recent international play this is just too small a price.

Indianapolis Colts season win total - 11 - This one is interesting to me. I cant stand the Colts, but they are a public team. It’s surprising, then, that they are favored to go under their total. They are at +133 to go over 11, and -149 to go under. I’m pleasantly surprised to see that the public isn’t buying into them this year. It would be nice to not have to see them as a major contender for a while.

Carolina Panthers season win total - 7.5 - This is another surprising one. They are at +147 to go under this total. They are just one quarterbackk injury away from another unimpressive season, and recent history would suggest that that isn’t nearly the longshot that this price would suggest it is.

Men’s Olympic badminton - Chunlai Bao (-119) vs. Jin Chen (+109) - Just kidding - I may be a bit of a degenerate, but nearly enough of one to dig this deep into the barrel to find some action. All I know about badminton is that shuttlecock used to be a really funny word when I was in grade school.

Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:

Buffalo over 7.5 (-180) - The Bills are the heaviest favorite on the board. Books are obviously pretty confident that they will improve on their seven wins of last season. It’s not hard to justify that opinion - their quarterback has more much needed experience, their injury woes will hopefully be a thing of the past, the offense reloaded in the draft, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Their division schedule will be tougher than last year, though, because the Pats are still the Pats and the Jets and Dolphins have improved. The rest of the schedule could be tough, too, including San Diego, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. I like the Bills, but certainly not enough to make this bet.

Oakland over 6 (-170) - The second biggest price on the board isn’t very attractive to me, either. To pay off here the Raiders need to find three more wins. Their running game should be improved (though it was pretty much the lone bright spot last year), but they will be relying on a brand new quarterback who isn’t surrounded with overwhelming tools. It could happen, but I don’t love the chances, and I think that this price is just an attempt to sucker in the suckers that call themselves Raiders fans.

Indianapolis under 11 (-165) - Books are down on the Colts. They would have to drop by three wins here. The arguments can be made - the receiving corps has questions (including whether Marvin Harrison will end up in an orange jumpsuit), and Tony Dungy doesn’t seem to be committed to his job for the long term. I don’t know whether I believe in this one or not, but I would be more than a little thrilled if it were true.

Dallas over 10.5 (-160) - I wonder if America’s team has ever been anything other than a heavy favorite to go over. The public can’t seem to be objective about this team, and the books take advantage of it. The number doesn’t seem that unreasonable, but the price sure does.

Atlanta over 4.5 (-160) - The Falcons need to find one more win than last year to pay off here. They have a new quarterback who has to make a gigantic leap up from the ACC, a coach who has never been at the helm of a team before, a GM who has to rebuild the team almost from scratch in his first year as a GM, and players have defected from several key positions. I have no doubts that this team is on the right path and will figure things out eventually, but I don’t think that their improvement this year is nearly the lock that this price would suggest.