Maddux Sports Blog

It hasn’t been easy to watch the Steelers this year – they are just a shadow of their former selves this year, and are going to have to work hard to make the playoffs, never mind to defend their Super Bowl title. Things certainly didn’t get any better on that front today – the team has had to put DE Aaron Smith on the IR for the year because of a torn rotator cuff. Smith isn’t one of the bigger defensive names in the league, but he really should be – he’s a run blocking machine as good as almost anyone in the NFL. In Smith’s absence, the job is going to be filled by committee – by a bunch of guys who aren’t good enough or ready enough to be starters right now. That’s a significant downgrade for a team that was already struggling defensively compared to what we have become used to from the top defensive team in the league the last two years. The Steelers are all but assured to get seven wins – the three they already have, plus Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland twice. That means they need to win four of their remaining seven to comfortably assure themselves a playoff spot. That’s far from impossible, but three of the seven are leading their division, Baltimore falls twice, and there are no soft spots. This team needs to be sharp. Really sharp. Given their early play I think I’d actually bet against a playoff spot.

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The Colts may have got a win to move to 2-0 tonight, but I’m sure not convinced by them yet. They got very lucky to win that one given that they barely had the ball on offense, and they weren’t always impressive when they did. If Miami had any ability at all to manage the clock down the stretch then both of these teams would have been 1-1. I didn’t think that the Colts were going to be elite this year before the season, and I haven’t seen anything yet to make me change my mind.

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There are 32 teams in the NFL and about 33% have new coaches! Head coaches tend to be tough guys to figure out—part disciplinarian, part guru, part psychologist and part military general—successful coaches can be contradictory enigmas. Although last season was all about the quarterback shift as rookie and vet signal callers changed the fates of various teams, this season is about massive shake ups is in the coaching ranks. Of course, it’s almost a cliché to say that an owner can’t fire an entire team so they simply fire the coach, creating a scapegoat. That being said, in this two-part blog I’ll take a look at each of the new coaches. First, I’ll start with the five who have the best shot at getting their team into the playoffs in their first at the helm season.

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1. Notre Dame is awful. I was pretty sure that the experts who were saying that Notre Dame was going to win nine or ten games this year were crazy. Now I know for sure. They rallied to beat San Diego State, but that’s not much of an accomplishment when you are playing one of the worst teams in division one and you are favored by 21.5 points. The Irish looked confused, lethargic, unprepared and very predictable. They were sloppy, and they got lucky. Charlie Weis is a terrible coach, and I have no faith in his ability to turn ths mess around.

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As we get down to the point where we can start counting down to the NFL season in hours or even minutes, I find myself constantly looking at the upcoming season from every different angle. It will be a very good thing when the season finally gets underway, because then I can’t start looking at what actually happens instead of driving myself crazy thinking about what might happen. Until then, though, all I can do is ask questions I can’t answer. Here are ten of those questions that keep coming back to the top of my mind:

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The biggest annual farce of the football season takes place this evening – The Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. Each year, two teams that aren’t even close to ready to play let their rookies have a scrimmage and NBC covers it. It’s a total joke. The only thing that redeems it is that their is a betting line. Betting on this game is absolutely ridiculous, but it’s better than nothing. I guess. Washingtn in favored by six points over the Colts, and the total is 31.5. Every second I think about this game costs me brain cells, but here’s a quick breakdown of the basic points.

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I’m going to avoid talking about the All-Star game before it happens because, well, it bores the hell out of me. I love baseball as much as the next guy, but I don’t think it lends itself particularly well to an exhibition format – especially one that none of the players really care about. If pitchers were all supposed to only pitch an inning a game then they’d all be called closers, and each team would have 18 of them. If I had to I would bet on the American League, but I would rather bet on cricket.

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I was passing some time tonight by browsing around the odds at Pinnacle looking for anything interesting (it was a slow night, obviously). As I did that a few lines of interest popped out that are worth a comment:

Men’s Olympic soccer – Anything can happen in a short tournament, but it would be a major upset of the winner of this tournament wasn’t either Argentina or Brazil. They are just that much better than anyone else. Interestingly, they are priced in such a way that you could bet both if you wanted and still make money if you were right. Argentina is +188 and Brazil is at +238 to win them all. That’s not bad for heavy favorites at this point.

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Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:

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