Maddux Sports Blog

A couple of things have me scratching  my head this morning.

First, the Bulls are reportedly about to hire Doug Collins as their next coach. Huh? With the first pick in the draft and a pretty decent existing lineup the best you could do is pull a guy off the scrap heap? Surely the lure of coaching Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose would have been enough to hire someone who is, well, good. Collins has already been a coach for the Bulls, and not a particularly good one. He’s also been at the helm for the Pistons and he wasn’t very good there, either. Finally, he was reunited with Michael Jordan with the Wizards. How can we possibly forget what a rousing and inspiring success that whole era was? Overall, he has a decent but not overwhelming regular season record of 332-287, but it’s in the playoffs that he has shown hs true incompetence - 15-23. He didn’t manage to get anything done with the Bulls in the playoffs, but soon after he left the team won three in a row. This move is totally without logic for the Bulls management team. Or maybe not. This must be what they are thinking - Collins hired Phil Jackson as an assistant, and when Collins was fired for being inept Jackson took the helm and won six titles in nine years. Maybe management sees this as the easiest way to identify the next Phil Jackson. That’s the only thing that makes sense, because as a coach Collins make a decent broadcaster. I wrote earlier that I was very optimistic about the Bulls next year because of the first pick and their other tools. A lot of that optimistic will drain away if they go through with this ridiculous hire. It’s not just his record that makes it ridiculous, though. They fired Scott Skiles because he was loud and fiery and it wasn’t working for the players anymore. The mogical thing, then, is to bring in a guy who is loud and fiery and shouts at his players. That’s the ticket. If I was a Bulls season ticket holder I’d be on the phone to cancel them as soon as they hired this goof. I suspect that I would have to wait on hold for a while.

The other thing that I don’t understand at all is why James Blake insists on sucking at the French Open. He was favored at -240 to win his second round match today against Ernests Gulbis, a 19 year old Latvian who is ranked 80th in the world and has only played in four previous grand slams. Not only did Blake lose the match, but he lost it in four sets. The first set went to a tiebreaker, but Gulbis dominated it. Blake fought back to take the second set, but then he folded. He looked confused, and he wasn’t playing his typical game. This is very frustrating. Blake is the 8th ranked player in the world. He’s not a clay specialist (the fact that Americans have a mental block against clay is another entirely different, though equally ridiculous, issue that I won’t deal with here), but he has had some success on clay both in the past and this year. He made the finals in clay in Houston this year. He made the quarters in the Rome Masters before losing to Stanislas Wawrinka, who went on to make the final and take a set off of Novak Djokovic. Blake has better surfaces, but the 8th ranked player in the world should be able to win their second round match in a major against an outmatched opponent on any surface. Period. Further, we should be able to trust an American ranked in the top ten to come through as a -240 favorite. Blake is an immensely talented player, but he really needs to get his head together before his window closes completely.

Big Brown returned to the track sooner than expected yesterday after suffering a quarter crack injury. He was back again today with a solid gallop. As far as I’m concerned the injury isn’t going to factor into my handicapping of the Belmont at all unless something comes up between now and then to make me think otherwise.

Casino Drive, Big Brown’s biggest threat, had a truly bizarre outing this morning. He was to work with a stable mate, but he was acting up in the warmup so they sent him off alone instead. His time was more than 1:12 for five furlongs. Even fairly average horses race six furlongs in less time. The time was so slow that Belmont clockers couldn’t record it as an official work. Bizarre. They obviously do things differently in Japan. One good thing happened for the horse today - he secured Edgar Prado as his Belmont rider. I like that a lot better than the idea of bringing a jockey over from Japan.

The White Sox scored three in the seventh to come back and beat Cleveland 6-5 today. I don’t know if the Indians suck or the White Sox are pretty good. I am finding it increasingly difficult to like anyone better than Chicago to come out of the Central, though.

Baltimore is above .500 at this point of the year. They are a ridiculous 16-7 at home. If they could play on the road even a little they would actually be competitive. That’s yet another thing that doesn’t make any sense about this season so far. It’s obvious that bettors and oddsmakers didn’t see this coming, either. Despite being just one game above .500 going into tonight’s action they are up about five units on the season on the moneyline.

Maria Sharapova won her second round match at the French Open today, but it sure wasn’t pretty. Serena Williams cruised. The women’s draw sure was easier to figure out when Justine Henin was still playing. Ana Ivanovic, the second seed, won her second match easily as well. The more I see her, the more I think she is the one to beat here. Things make much more sense on the men’s side where Rafael Nadal made it look easy.

My best guesses - Boston and Pittsburgh both look pretty good in earning home playoff wins tonight. I’ll especially be shocked if Boston doesn’t come out on put on a clinic.

There are a couple big events happening this weekend. We’ll take a look at the Indy 500 tomorrow, and look at the French Open today:

Men’s Draw

I don’t see this half of the tournament being particularly competitive. There is always the chance that someone could break through - Nikolay Davydenko, for example. It seems by far more likely, though, that one of these three men will win it. If I were forced to pick, I would predict that for the third straight year Nadal would beat Federer in the final. Not original, but fairly safe:

Rafael Nadal - You can certainly pick against the Spaniard if you want to, but you had better have a good reason for doing so. He’s won the last three French Opens, and he has given us little reason to believe that he won’t win a fourth. It looked questionable a couple of weeks ago when he got knocked out of the Rome Masters on clay in the second round. He rebounded very nicely by winning Hamburg the next week, though, and he beat both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to do so. Nadal has won 108 of his last 110 on clay. When he is at his best he is unbeatable, and he can be a long way from his best and still be just fine. His dominance is obvious in the odds - Bodog has him as a -150 favorite to win it all. Even if you don’t think he can win four in a row like only Bjorn Borg has done before him, you can still play him in the early rounds with full confidence. The payoffs will be tiny for those games, but they can be handy when played in a parlay.

Roger Federer - He may be the best tennis player in the world, but his dominance doesn’t extend to this surface. It’s not like he’s terrible - he has made the last two finals, and has only lost to Nadal in the last three years. It’s just that he doesn’t have the game to beat Nadal if the Spaniard is anywhere near his best. There’s no need to feel sorry for Federer, of course - he has won the last five at Wimbledon and has been the U.S. Open champ the last four years. Federer is tougher to deal with than in recent years because he hasn’t been playing particularly well this year. He has been struggling with illness and generally lethargic, unfocused play. He seems to have sorted things out recently, though - he looked like his usual ferocious self en route to the Hamburg final. I feel nervous about Federer in later rounds, but he can again be used with full comfort early on.

Novak Djokovic - Djokovic reminds me in at least one way of Andre Agassi - he would have been the best player in the world if it weren’t for Pete Sampras. Djokovic is similarly stuck behind Nadal and Federer, but he is closing the gap nicely. He has made at least the semis in each of the last four grand slam tournaments, and he is coming off his first major at the Australian. His problem is that he is on the same side of the draw as Nadal, so he will face a very tough semifinal. He lost to Nadal at Hamburg, and I suspect that that will happen again here. My confidence is equally high, though, that he will make that semifinal. His clay form is excellent - he won Rome and lost in the semis at Hamburg.

Women’s Draw

Unlike the men’s side, the women are a perplexing mess. That’s because Justine Henin has won the last three versions of the tournament with relative ease, but she returned earlier this month. That throws the door wide open.

Maria Sharapova - She’s the closest thing to a favorite in the field. She won the Australian Open this year, and she has only lost twice all year. She made it as far as the semifinals last year, and she has a relatively kind path to the final this year since she became the number one seed when Henin retired. There are a couple of reasons I am not more excited about her prospects, though. She hasn’t played nearly as well at this tournament historically than in the other three majors. More significantly, she pulled out of Rome with a calf injury, so there are questions both about her health and her preparedness for this surface.

Ana Ivanovic - The second seed is virtually anonymous, but she looks pretty darned good here. She made the finals in the French last year, and in the Australian earlier this year. She’s playing fairly well this year, and she has a game well suited to this situation. There are literally ten or a dozen women who could win this tournament without being a surprise, but I like this Serbian as much as anyone.

Jelena Jankovic - Her seasoning is questionable as she has never reached a grand slam final. What can’t be questioned, though, is her current form. She won in Rome - the most significant French Open prep - and she beat Serena Williams pretty convincingly on the way. She made the semifinal here last year, and she had also won Rome last year,too, so she likes the surface. She’s not the most consistent player in the world, though, so I hesitate to trust her here.

Serena Williams - She is absolutely an enigma, but you can never disregard her if she is entered in a tournament. We can’t be sure how her health is because she withdrew from the quarterfinals at Rome with a back problem. She says she is fine, though. At the French last year she won her first four matches with ridiculous ease, and then played one of the worst matches I have ever seen to Justine Henin. This isn’t her best major, but she can certainly win it if she decides she wants to. That’s abig if. She is almost always a pass for me these days - it’s too hard to figure out if she will care enough to show up.

Mondays aren’t supposed to be busy days on the sports front, but this one certainly was. Here are five things that caught my eye today:

1. It was covered here by someone else earlier tonight, but I have to touch on Jon Lester again. Impressive on a couple of fronts - Boston having two no-hitters in less than a year, Jason Varitek catching both games, Lester’s story. It would be an even better story if it had have been against a major league team instead of the Triple-A adequate Kansas City Royals. Based on what I wrote here last week I’ll be taking a very close look at Lester next time out.

2. Man, do I ever hate the Spurs. They keep finding a way to win when it matters - mostly by boring their opponents to death. The worst part isn’t that they are still alive, or that New Orleans would have made for a far more interesting series against the Lakers. It’s that San Antonio now has to be considered the favorite to win it all, and especially so if Kobe isn’t at his best. If I have to see Tim Duncan cut down another net I am more than likely to puke.

3. The Red Wings took a couple games off, but they finally showed up today and exerted their total dominance over the Stars. Pittsburgh did the same thing yesterday after their one game holiday. This sets up the most interesting and likely exciting Stanley Cup showdown we have seen in years. I am leaning towards the Penguins, but it could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised. It takes a lot to get me to watch hockey in June, but this will do it.

4. Andy Roddick pulled out of the French Open today thanks to a shoulder injury. I like the guy and I respect his game, but I couldn’t be happier. He’s lost in the first round the last two years at the French, and I was not at all looking forward to figuring out if he was going to break that bad habit this time around.

5. The NBA draft lottery goes tomorrow night, and as always the stakes are very high for a lot of teams. Derrick Rose is a player to build a team around, and Michael Beasley could ease a lot of woes as well. As much as I hate to admit it, I think I would like to see the Knicks win it most - watching D’Antoni coach Steve Nash for the last few years was a complete pleasure, and watching him and Rose would be no less captivating. I’d also like to see Memphis get the pick - it would be fun to see them struggle with deciding if they should choose the player who best fits them - Beasley - or the player who will sell the most tickets - Rose. Seattle would be fun, too - Durant plus one of these two would make it easy to draw comparisons between the Sonics now and the Penguins a couple of years ago.