Maddux Sports Blog

As I sit here thinking about the tournament, and about the sports betting world in general, here are 10 questions that are bouncing through my mind:

1. Can Western Kentucky be remotely competitive against UCLA? - Their center is Jeremy Evans, a 6′9″ sophomore who weighs in at a whopping 190 pounds. Kevin Love is taller and 70 pounds heavier. I think I fear for Evans’ life.

2. Is Lofton’s injury for real? - Tennessee’s heart and soul is reportedly wearing a walking cast after suffering a light injury against Butler. Maybe. Everyone says he will be fine for the game, and I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Pearl to mess with Louisville’s heads by overplaying the injury. At the very least it takes attention off the fact that the Vols don’t have a point guard.

3. Can Davidson do to Butch what it did to Hibbert? - Davidson’s speed and brilliant guard play frustrated Hibbert all day and rendered him close to useless. That’s almost entirely why they won. That was against the best team in the country at defending the field goal. Now they have to do it all over again against the third best team. Butch is a bit more versatile than Hibbert, but if Davidson can work the same magic then this game could be very interesting. If Davidson can turn it into a shooting contest then they win. And then Stephen Curry could run for president and win.

4. What will Mitch Johnson do? - The Lopez twins get the attention, but Stanford beat Marquette because point guard Johnson got 16 assists. His previous season high was eight. Texas is a huge step up in class, and Johnson will have to perform well again to help his team. Can he? What can we expect? He obviously won’t have 16 again, but Marquette plays solid defense and Johnson only turned it over once, so he is obviously in a zone of some sort. Good play from Johnson will allow the Lopez boys to exert their serious size advantage over Texas.

5. Is Xavier being disrespected? - Xavier is a three seed and West Virginia is a seven, yet the Mountaineers are favored by as much as 1.5 points. Is that unfair or is it a reflection of reality? I like Xavier much more than West Virginia in general, but depth-on-depth I don’t see how the Musketeers don’t have an edge. I also think that West Virginia is in for a shock because unlike Duke this team actually plays very tight defense and actually gets a rebound or two. I’m explaining West Virginia’s unexpected (to me) favoritism away by them beating Duke, the ultimate public team, and because Joe Alexander is way more visible than any of Xavier’s players.

6. Is David Padgett ready for the big time? - I don’t want to oversimplify, but if the Louisville big man steps up and has a huge game then Louisville will win because Tennessee has no good answer for him. Padgett definitely can do it. It’s just a question of whether he will.

7. Does Villanova have a chance against Kansas? - The odds say no given that the spread is 11.5, and my instinct is the same, but then I didn’t think they had much of a chance in their first game, either, and that turned out just fine. Scottie Reynolds is firing on all cylinders, and he will give Kansas a test. I’m not saying I am picking Nova by any mens. I just think it could be interesting.

8. Was Josh Howard making a statement? - In the first game without Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas’ de facto leader came out and had a huge game with 32 points. I’d say that that was a statement game, and that he is showing he is readying to lead a team that desperately needs a leader, but I have two reservations. First, it was only against the Clippers. I think I could get 15 against the Clippers, and I haven’t played on a team since junior high. Second, Howard was sent to the line a ridiculous 15 times, and he was perfect in those attempts. Lower the opportunities and his shooting percentage down to more reasonable levels and you are left with a more pedestrian game. Howard could certainly step up, but I am still reserving judgment over whether he will because this game proved nothing.

9. Can we fold the NBA East? - The Nuggets are sitting outside of the playoffs in the West at 43-28. The Hawks have the eighth spot in the East at 30-40. That is wrong on so many levels. There is a decent chance that a 50 win team won’t make the playoffs in the West. In the East that would get you home court advantage.

10. What’s wrong with Tiger? - How bizarre is the world of golf when a guy finishes fifth in a tournament out of well over 100 guys and you have to wonder what went wrong?

I want to take a minute away from the tournament for a second because it is on hiatus and focus instead on the pros. One thing I am fascinated by more than almost anything in the NBA is the impact of serious injuries on a team from a betting perspective. Given that, what is going on with Dallas right now is as good as it gets. Dirk Nowitzki went down to the ground with a crash against San Antonio, and it was immediately obvious that he was in trouble. It appears that he has sprains to his knee and ankle. Initial reports were that he was out for two weeks, but the team has shied away from setting a timeline and it could reasonably be much longer. It never seems like a big guy comes back from a leg injury faster than expected.

The Mavs have lost their best player while they are in the heart of a playoff race. It seems ridiculous to think that a team that is on pace to win 50 games would be in danger of missing the playoffs, but the West is truly ridiculous and that is indeed the case. They are currently in seventh place, but Golden State is right on their tales and can score a ton and ninth place Denver is right behind and has found their stride recently. Dallas, on the other hand, is neither playing particularly well nor consistently lately - they have won just five of their last 11, ad the losses have come in two three game streaks. The addition of Jason Kidd hasn’t been a disaster, but it hasn’t lifted the team particularly, either, and now they have to make due without the big man.

The statistical numbers are bleak for Dallas. Nowitzki leads the teams in scoring, rebounds and assists, he is tied with Josh Howard for most minutes per game, and he’s a strong second in blocks and right up their in shooting percentages. To state the obvious, he is the heart and soul of the team. They already aren’t a high scoring team - at 100 points per game they lag behind six of the eight teams they are racing for the playoffs with. More significantly, it seems more reasonable that Josh Howard will take a step back instead of a step forward without Nowitzki, and it is hard to see who is going to step up and fill the scoring void. Points could be hard to come by. Unfortunately we can’t look back to see how the team typically performs without the German giant because he has never missed a significant block of games.

It’s not just the offensive side of the ball that will struggle without Nowitzki. Dallas makes up for the lack of explosive offense by playing disciplined defense - seventh in the NBA. Unfortunately, Nowitzki is at the heart of that, too. The team will sorely miss his blocks and rebounds, and he is one of the relatively few big men who is committed to defensive play. Scoring fewer points and allowing more points does not seem like a formula for sucsess.

All in all, the outlook is pretty bleak. Teams can often rise up in the face of adversity - just look at Houston without Yao Ming. Unlike Houston, though, this isn’t a team that has been playing with an overwhelming amount of heart or passion, and they don’t have a lot of thrilling talent to step up and take the lead. Houston had Tracy McGrady, and while Josh Howard is a very nice player he doesn’t have the leadership or the credibility to step up and lead. That leaves the burden on a bunch of guys who were much better once than they are now. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors, either - seven of their remaining 12 games are against West playoff contenders including three against the two teams that are chasing them. They also are only at home for five games, and they have struggled on the road all year.

In the end I don’t think that things are going to go well for the Mavericks. What I am very curious about, and what I will be watching closely is what that means to bettors. On one hand the team will likely struggle, but the public is also likely to run away from them in droves because of the injury. If the team performs reasonably well then that could create some real value, but then they are just 30-36-4 ATS on the season, so they haven’t exactly been value stars to begin with. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Until I have a better sense I’ll probably stay away from them, but the Nuggets and the Warriors, both playing the Mavs at home, will be pretty tempting this week.