Maddux Sports Blog

1. New England Patriots – The Patriots are heavily favored to win it all – probably too favored. Still, they have as good a chance as anyone. If Brady is healthy, and it seems reasonable to assume that he will be, then he’ll be hungry to make up for lost time. He has all the tools he needs to do that – a good line to protect him, a strong wide receiver corps, perhaps the best running back battalion he has had in his time in New England, and so on. Defensively, the team is more than sound as well. On paper they are clearly the best team in the league, and they have the track record for living up to their potential.

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Heading into the NFL Draft it seems fitting that Jason Peters was just traded by the Bills to the Eagles. He’s one of those rare cases where the NFL draft machinery just totally missed the boat. Peters was an undrafted tight end out of Arkansas. Someone with the Bills had the bright idea to try Peters on the O-line, and voila – a two time Pro Bowl left tackle. Peters held out at the start of last year and still hadn’t come to terms on a new deal, so the Bills really had no choice but to get rid of him. It was an equally logical move for the Eagles – they lost Tra Thomas in free agency, so they needed a replacement. With Peters they not only got that but an upgrade. The lingering effect of this is that it will likely change up some draft boards. The Bills will definitely need a new left tackle, and the draft is probably more promising than a free agent at this point. Buffalo wasn’t one of the many teams in the market for a tackle before this move, but they certainly are now. Things like this are why the draft is so interesting – six years after no one wanted him, Peters is essentially Philly’s second first round pick.

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Matt Cassel is a Chief. Bizarre. It seemed destined to happen – the Chiefs didn’t have a true number one in town, and Scott Pioli left the Pats on good terms to go to K.C. as the main man. What is so surprising, though, is that the Pats essentially gave Cassel away. New England packaged linebacker Mike Vrabel with Cassel, and all they got in return was a second round draft pick, 34th overall. The Chiefs get two starters in two positions of high need, and they give up just a pick that is far from guaranteed to produce an instant (more…)

1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling – he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though – he’s only played one BCS team – Illinois – and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest – his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games – Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.

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Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:

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