SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs College Football Picks & Predictions

SMU Mustangs at No. 20 TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, 10/1/11, 3:30 PM EST, TV:  N/A
Opening Point Spread:  TCU -11.5
Current Betting Line:  TCU -13
Opening Total:  54
Current Total:  56.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

College Football Sportsbook
The TCU Horned Frogs are 25-11 ATS as a home favorite

SMU rides in on a three-game win streak and the defense has allowed just 265 total yards and seven points in the last two games.  The Mustangs have not allowed an offensive touchdown in nine quarters and the stop unit ranks ninth nationally in total defense.  SMU and TCU will continue a long-standing rivalry Sunday, with the Mustangs trailing, 44-39-7, in the series.  Last year’s meeting resulted in a 41-24 loss as 17.5-point home favorites, as the team actually was out-gained by just 14 yards.  SMU is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points and 2-0 ATS versus Mountain West Conference opponents.

The Mustangs offense has totaled more than 500 yards of offense in each of the last two games, passing for a combined 773 yards.  “We’ve gotten better over the years, so it’s obviously a much more appealing game to the fans than it was previously when they were beating up on us,” commented SMU quarterback J.J. McDermott about the program’s competitiveness under head coach June Jones.  The Mustangs have a big-time weapon in running back Zach Line, who ran for 139 yards on 17 carries in last year’s meeting.

TCU has tallied a 36-1 record in day games and 62-4 mark when playing on Saturdays since the 2005 campaign.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 under head coach Gary Patterson’s direction against the Mustangs.  It’s hard to imagine that the team doesn’t come away with a victory in this contest, as the school has won a record 22-straight at home.  In their last 12 home games, the team has outscored opponents by an incredible 545-135 margin.  TCU’s defense has recorded five shutouts in its last 28 games in front of the home faithful.  The team is 16-12 ATS over the last two-plus seasons and the ‘over’ holds a slight 14-13 advantage.

The Horned Frogs have won 30 of their last 32 games and are 41-4 in their last 45 contests.  Quarterback Casey Pachall’s 69.2 completion percentage through the opening four games is on pace to break Andy Dalton’s school record.  Running back Waymon James has a team-best 344 rushing yards on 8.6 per carry, as that amount of yards per rush ranks second in the Mountain West Conference.  The offense has been extremely balanced in gaining 874 rushing yards and 875 passing yards.

Bettors will likely back the Horned Frogs due to their 25-11 ATS mark as a home favorite, while the Mustangs are 1-5 ATS versus winning teams.

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