SEC Week Seven Betting Picks: Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers
Saturday, October 13, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Faurot Field – Columbia, Missouri
Opening Line: Alabama -17 1/2
Current Line: Alabama -22 1/2
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 43 1/2
Opening Money Line: Alabama -1400 / Missouri +900
Current Money Line: Alabama -1600 / Missouri +1050
The #1 Alabama Crimson Tide and Missouri Tigers meet for the first time as SEC foes, and the fourth time overall. Missouri leads the series 2-1 but they haven’t played since 1978.
Alabama is coached by Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide are coming off a bye after starting the season 5-0, with all five wins coming by 19 points or more. Alabama has wins over Michigan 41-14 in Arlington, Texas, Western Kentucky 35-0, Florida Atlantic 40-7, and Ole Miss 33-14 (all at home), along with a 52-0 thrashing of Arkansas on the road. Although both Michigan and Arkansas were ranked in the top 10 in the pre-season poll, both have proven they were vastly overrated. The Crimson Tide are 2-3 ATS this season and the total is also 2-3. Alabama was a 31 point home favorite against Ole Miss in their last game and the total was 52.
Alabama is averaging 401 yards per game on offense including 212.8 passing yards and 188.2 rushing yards. Alabama is outscoring opponents 40.2-7 this season. No Alabama opponent has scored more than 14 points in any game, and the Tide has 2 shutouts in 5 games. Alabama has forced 15 turnovers with 7 of their own. The Crimson Tide has 16 sacks and has allowed 11 this season. Alabama is 34/67 on third and fourth down conversions and 22/22 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Alabama is allowing 191.6 total yards per game, including 125.8 passing yards and 65.8 rushing yards per game. Alabama is #1 in total and scoring defense nationally, #3 against the pass and #4 versus the run. Crimson Tide opponents are 25/78 on third and fourth down conversions, and 4/7 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.
Quarterback A.J. McCarron has completed 73/111 passes (65.8%) for 999 yards with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times this season. Running back Eddie Lacy has 64 carries, 314 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 25 yards. T.J. Yeldon has 50 carries, 292 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 94 yards. Kenyan Drake has only 13 carries for 126 yards, but 3 of them went for touchdowns. Receiver Amari Cooper has 17 catches, 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kevin Norwood has 9 catches, 179 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christion Jones has 9 catches, 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also returns kicks and punts for the Tide and has a 99 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Four other Alabama receivers have at least 7 catches, but DeAndrew White is out for the season with a knee injury.
Missouri is 3-3 this season under coach Gary Pinkel. It has been a rocky start for Missouri in their first year in the SEC. The Tigers are 0-3 in SEC play with home losses to Georgia 41-20 and last week against Vanderbilt 19-15. The Tigers also lost 31-10 at South Carolina. Missouri has non-conference home wins over SE Louisiana 62-10 and Arizona St 24-20, along with a 21-16 win at Central Florida. Missouri is 2-3 ATS and the total is 1-4 this season. Missouri was a 7 point favorite last week at home against Vanderbilt and the total was 45.
Missouri is averaging 356.2 yards per game, including 216.7 passing yards and 139.5 rushing yards. Missouri is outscoring teams 25.3-22.8 this season. The Tigers are finding it is much more difficult to move the ball in the rugged SEC than it was in the defense-optional Big 12. Missouri has 7 turnovers and has allowed 14 sacks. The Tigers are 32/117 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/20 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Missouri defense has been pretty good this season, allowing 326.7 yards per game including 219.2 passing yards and 107.5 rushing yards. Missouri has forced 15 sacks and 14 turnovers this season. Tiger opponents are 35/99 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/21 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns.
The already struggling Missouri offense took a hit when star quarterback James Franklin was injured last week in the Vanderbilt game. He hurt his knee, but is expected to miss at least a few weeks. Franklin had thrown for 805 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this season. Freshman Corbin Berkstresser will start in place of Franklin. He started in the upset of Arizona St, when Franklin was injured. Berkstresser has completed 42/84 passes for 501 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, along with 2 rushing touchdowns. He has been sacked 3 times this season. Berkstresser has seen action in every game except against UCF. Running back Kendial Lawrence has 85 carries, 487 yards, and 5 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 81 yards. Marcus Murphy has 19 carries for 122 yards. He is probable with a dislocated finger. Murphy is one of the best punt returners in the country averaging 20.1 yards per return with 3 touchdowns. Receiver Marcus Lucas has 30 catches, 309 yards, and 2 touchdowns. T.J. Moe has 24 catches, 231 yards, and a touchdown. Gahn McCaffie has 18 catches for 124 yards.
Alabama has held 15 straight opponents to under 300 total yards. The crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in October, 6-1 in orad games and on fieldturf, and 8-3 in SEC games.
Missouri has forced at least one turnover in 19 straight games. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 8-1 after failing to cover, 4-1 after scoring 20 points or less, 4-10 on fieldturf, 2-7 at home against teams with winning road records, and 1-4 after allowing 100 points or less.
Missouri’s offensive woes should continue against Alabama without Franklin. The Tigers couldn’t move the ball against Vanderbilt last week without Franklin in the disappointing loss to the Commodores last week. The Crimson Tide should roll in this game even on the road.
Our expert college football picks will help you dominate the Books this season. Don’t miss out on any more winners.