SEC Week Five Betting Picks: Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs
Tennessee Volunteers at #5 Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, September 29, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Sanford Stadium – Athens,Georgia
Opening Line: Georgia -15 1/2
Current Line: Georgia -14
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Georgia -550 / Tennessee +450
Current Money Line: Georgia -550 / Tennessee +450
The Tennessee Volunteers and #5 Georgia Bulldogs meet Saturday in Athens in a crucial SEC East showdown. This is the 42nd meeting all time between the schools with Tennessee holding a narrow 21-18-2 advantage, including 10-9-1 in Athens. Georgia ha won two in a row in the series and 3 of the last 4, including 20-12 last year in Knoxville. Last year’s meeting was the first in 7 years decided by 12 points or less. The two schools first played each other in 1899.
Tennessee is 3-1 this season under Derek Dooley. The Volunteers are 0-1 in SEC play with a home loss to Florida 37-20. Tennessee has wins over North Carolina St 35-21 in Atlanta and home wins over Georgia St 51-13 and last week against Akron 47-26. The Volunteers were tied at 23 with the Zips at halftime, but Tennessee outscored them 24-3 in the second half. The Vols racked up 633 total yards including 401 passing yards from quarterback Tyler Bray, who threw four touchdowns and a pick. The two teams combined for 5 turnovers. Tennessee never came close to covering the 31.5 point spread against Akron bu the game did go over the 65 point total.
Tennessee is averaging 513.8 yards per game including the #7 ranked passing offense with 341.2 passing yards and 172.5 rushing yards. On defense, Tennessee is allowing 392.2 total yards including 228 passing yards and 164.2 rushing yards. The Volunteers are outscoring opponents 38.2-24.2 this season. Tennessee is 1-3 ATS and the total is 0-3 this season.
Bray has completed 94 of 148 passes (63.5%) tis season for 1,301 yards with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Running back Rajion Neal has 80 carries, 356 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 8 catches, 52 yards and a touchdown. Marlin Lane has 27 carries for 154 yards and 5 catches for 80 yards. Receiver Justin Hunter has 30 catches, 410 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cordarrelle Patterson has 19 catches, 259 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. Zach Rogers has 8 catches 198 yards and a touchdown. Mychal Rivera has 11 catches, 173 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Georgia is 4-0 this season under coach Mark Richt. The Bulldogs have won every game by at least 21 points, and are 2-0 in conference so far. Georgia has home wins over Buffalo 45-23, Florida Atlantic 56-20, and last week against Vanderbilt 48-3. The Bulldogs also have a 41-20 road win at Missouri. In the rout over Vanderbilt, Georgia had 575 total yards incuding 302 rushing yards. The Bulldogs held the Commodores to 337 total yards, 15 first downs and just 3 points. Georgia easily covered the 14.5 point spread and the game went over by a point and a half.
Georgia is averaging 530 yards per game on offense, inluding 287.5 passing yards and 242.5 rushing yards. On defense, the Bulldogs are allowing 343.2 total yards, including 207.8 passing yards and 135.5 rushing yards. Georgia is outscoring opponents 47.5-16.5 this season. The Bulldogs are 2-2 ATS and all four games have gone over the total so far this season.
Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray has completed 69 of 104 passes (66.3%) for 1,092 yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Murray has been sacked 6 times, but he does have 3 rushing touchdowns on 19 carries. Running back Todd Gurley has 44 carries, 406 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Keith Marshall has 42 carries, 264 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ken Malcome has 26 carries, 152 yards, and a touchdown. Receiver Michael Bennett has 19 catches, 275 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tavarres King has 14 catches, 269 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Marlon Brown has 16 catches, 264 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Tennessee hasn’t beaten a top 5 team since a 2004 upset over LSU. The Volunteers are 2-5 ATS afte failing to cover, 1-3-1 in road games, 1-4 overall, 1-7-1 in conference games, 0-3-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 0-5-1 after a straight up win, 0-6-1 against teams with winning records, 0-3-1 in September, 0-5 after passing for more than 280 yards, 0-4 on grass, and 0-3-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more. In the last 8 games in this series playing Athens, the under is 6-2.
Georgia is 12-2-2 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-2 after scoring 40 points or more, 7-3 in SEC games, 9-4 after a straight up win, 1-5 at home, and 0-4 after gaining more than 450 total yards.
These are the two most prolific offenses in the SEC. The main difference is Tennessee relies mostly on the passing game with Bray, Hunter, and Patterson. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. The Bulldogs have scoed over 40 points in every game. This could be a shootout as neither defense is that great, especially by SEC standards. I think Georgia wins by double digits with lost of points scored by both teams.
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