#17 Arkansas Razorbacks at #21 Auburn Tigers
Saturday, October 22, 2016, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Jordan-Hare Stadium – Auburn, Alabama
Opening Line: Auburn -8
Current Line: Auburn -10 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 55
Opening Money Line: Auburn -375 / Arkansas +305
Current Money Line: Auburn -445 / Arkansas +370
While most eyes in the SEC will be on the battle between undefeated Alabama and Texas A&M, the four other ranked SEC West teams also face off against each other. The #17 Arkansas Razorbacks travel to the #21 Auburn Tigers, while the #23 Ole Miss Rebels travel to the #25 LSU Rebels. Only Mississippi State is not ranked in the SEC West.
Arkansas is 5-2 and 1-2 in the SEC while Auburn is 4-2 and 2-1 in conference. Auburn leads the series 13-11-1 including 6-5-1 at home. Last year, Arkansas won a wild 54-46 shootout in four overtimes in Fayetteville.
Arkansas is coached by Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks have home wins over Louisiana Tech 21-20, Texas State 42-3 and Ole Miss last week 34-30, plus a road win at TCU 41-38 in overtime, and Alcorn State 52-10 in Little Rock. The Razorbacks lost to Texas A&M 45-24 in Arlington. Arkansas lost at home 49-30 to Alabama. The Razorbacks were tied at 20 with Ole Miss. The Razorbacks took a 27-20 lead into the fourth but the Rebels scored the first 10 points of the fourth quarter. Arkansas regained the lead with 2:20 left on a 6 yard touchdown run from Jared Cornelius. Ole Miss had one last chance but a fumble ended any hopes for the Rebels. Arkansas is 3-4 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season. The Razorbacks were 10 point underdogs against Ole Miss and the total was 65.
Auburn is coached by Gus Malzahn. The Tigers have losses at home to Clemson 19-13 and Texas A&M 29-16. Auburn has home wins over Arkansas State 51-14, LSU 18-13, and UL-Monroe 58-7, plus a road win at Mississippi State 38-14 last week. Auburn jumped out to a 35-0 lead at halftime against Mississippi State and cruised to the 24 point win. The Tigers were 4 point favorites and the total was 55. Auburn is 5-1 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season.
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Arkansas is outscoring teams 35-28 this season. The Razorbacks average 446 yards per game on offense including 266 passing and 180 rushing yards. On defense, Arkansas allows 399 yards per game on defense including 223 passing and 176 rushing yards. The Razorbacks are +1 in turnovers with 14 takeaways. Arkansas averages 51 penalty yards per game and opponents average 52 per game. The Razorbacks are 45/104 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/93. Arkansas has forced 15 sacks and allowed 17 this season. The Razorbacks are 30/37 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns and opponents are 21/27 with 16 touchdowns.
Quarterback Austin Allen has thrown for 1,861 yards with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Running back Rawleigh Williams III has 140 carries for 785 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Devwah Whaley has 49 carries for 306 yards and a touchdown. Kody Walker has 31 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown.
Receiver Jared Cornelius has 22 catches for 448 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 7 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. Drew Morgan has 37 catches for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns. Keon Hatcher has 21 catches for 354 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Jeremy Sprinkle has 19 catches for 199 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Four defensive players are listed on the injury report.
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Auburn is outscoring teams 32-16 this season. The Tigers are #10 in points allowed nationally. The Tigers average 479 yards per game on offense including 216 passing and 263 rushing yards per game. The Tigers are #11 in rushing nationally. On defense, Auburn allows 347 yards per game including 200 passing and 147 rushing yards. The Tigers are -1 in turnovers with 9 giveaways. Auburn averages 35 penalty yards per game and opponents average 59 per game. The Tigers are 47/102 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 36/105. Auburn has forced 14 sacks and allowed 15 this season. The Tigers are 26/32 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns, and opponents are 15/22 with 8 touchdowns.
Quarterback Sean White has thrown for 1,187 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and also has 38 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III have also take snaps this season. Franklin has 19 carries for 217 yards and a touchdown, and has thrown a touchdown pass.
Running back Kerryon Johnson has 105 carries for 538 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 4 catches. He is probable with an ankle injury. Kamryn Pettway has 91 carries for 505 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 2 catches.
Receiver Tony Stevens has 24 catches for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyle Davis has 9 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Davis has 19 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Davis has 13 catches for 100 yards. Will Hastings has 8 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. Darius Slayton will also get some targets. Four defensive backs are out indefinitely for Auburn.
Arkansas is 6-0 ATS on grass, 6-1 in road games, 10-2 against teams with winning home records, 7-3 in SEC games, and 17-8 against teams with winning records. The over is 5-2 in this series recently.
Auburn is 6-1 ATS overall, 5-1 on grass, 4-1 at home, in October, and after allowing less than 20 points, 15-6 after a cover, 5-11 against teams with winning records, 3-8 after a win, and 0-4 against teams with winning records. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the series recently and the home team is 5-2.
Neither one of these teams are as good as Alabama or even Texas A&M. However, if they were in almost any other division/conference in FBS football, they would be contenders including the SEC East. Auburn hasn’t allowed more than 29 points in any game, and I think they can slow down the Arkansas offense. I like the Tigers to win but it will close than 10.5 points.