SEC Betting Picks: Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Ole Miss Rebels

Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Saturday, November 7, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Ole Miss -11
Current Line: Ole Miss -10 (-105)
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 54
Opening Money Line: Ole Miss -430 / Arkansas +345
Current Money Line: Ole Miss -400 / Arkansas +325

Ole Miss is a 10 point favorite against Arkansas Saturday.
Ole Miss is a 10 point favorite against Arkansas Saturday.

The 7-2 Ole Miss Rebels are 4-1 in the SEC West. The Rebels could find themselves in a tie for first place with a win Saturday against Arkansas if Alabama beats 4-0 LSU later that night. Arkansas is 4-4 this season and in sixth place in the division at 2-2 ahead of only 1-4 Auburn.

Arkansas leads the series 33-27-1 in a series that dates back to 1908. This is only the tenth meeting ever in Oxford between the teams with the Razorbacks holding a slim 5-4 advantage in those games. Arkansas won last year in Fayetteville 30-0.

Arkansas is coached by Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks have home wins over UTEP 48-13, Auburn 54-46 and last week against UT-Martin 63-28 and at Tennessee 24-20. Arkansas has home losses to Toledo 16-12 (in Little Rock) and Texas Tech 35-24, a neutral site loss to Texas A&M 28-21 in overtime in Arlington, Texas, plus a road loss to Alabama 27-14.

Arkansas was a 37 point favorite against Tennessee-Martin and the total was 61.5. The Razorbacks jumped out to a 21-0 lead early and never looked back. They led 35-14 at halftime, but the Skyhawks scored early in the third to pull within 35-21. However, Arkansas scored 28 straight points to put the game out of reach. UT-Martin scored a late touchdown to get inside the huge spread making the final margin 35 points. Both teams had over 500 yards of offense, but the Skyhawks had the only three turnovers of the game. Arkansas is 4-4 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels have home wins over UT-Martin 76-3, Fresno State 73-21, Vanderbilt 27-16, New Mexico State 52-3, and Texas A&M 23-3. Mississippi has a road win at Alabama 43-37 and last week at Auburn 27-19. The Rebels have road losses at Florida 38-10 and at Memphis 37-24.

Ole Miss was an 8.5 point favorite against Auburn and the total was 57.5. The two teams were tied 10-10 at halftime. The Rebels would take a 20-13 lead into the fourth. Auburn kicked two short field goals early in the fourth to pull within 20-19. Ole Miss scored with 10:13 left in the fourth to expand the lead to 27-19. Auburn had 3 more chances but the Tigers were unable to score. The Rebels had 558 total yards to 427 for Auburn. Mississippi is 5-4 ATS and the total is 3-6 this season.

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Arkansas is outscoring teams 33-27 this season.  The Razorbacks are averaging 458 total yards per game including 260 passing and 198 rushing yards. Arkansas is in the top 40 in all three categories nationally. The Razorbacks are allowing 391 total yards per game including 273 passing and 118 rushing yards. Arkansas is #21 in rush defense but #115 in pass defense.  The Razorbacks have forced 12 turnovers and have 8 giveaways this season. Arkansas averages 50 penalty yards per game and opponents average 38 per game. The Razorbacks are 53/113 on third and fourth down conversions, while opponents are 57/120. Arkansas has forced seven sacks and has allowed seven this season. The Razorbacks are 27/36 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns and opponents are 26/31 with 19 touchdowns.

Quarterback Brandon Allen has completed 63.4% of his passes for 2,034 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and has 39 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Alex Collins has 166 carries for 960 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 55 yards. Rawleigh Williams has 56 carries for 254 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches. He is out for the season with a neck injury. Kody Walker has 26 catches for 117 yards and 3 touchdowns. Little used Juan Day is questionable Saturday with a knee injury.  Running back Jonathan Williams is out for the season with a broken foot. He rushed for over a 1,000 yards last year.

Receiver Drew Morgan has 35 catches for 498 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Hunter Henry has 28 catches for 409 yards and 1 touchdowns. Jeremy Sprinkle has 13 catches for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dominique Reed has 11 catches for 237 yards with 3 touchdowns. Three key wide receivers are listed on the injury report. Keon Hatcher is questionable with a foot injury. Hatcher has 13 catches for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Eric Hawkins is questionable with a concussion. Cody Hollister is questionable with a foot injury. Four defensive players are also listed on the injury report.

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Ole Miss is outscoring teams 39-20 this season. Mississippi is #13 in scoring and #27 in points allowed.  The Rebels are averaging 520 yards per game including 347 passing and 173 rushing. Ole Miss is #11 in total offense and #11 in passing nationally. On defense, Mississippi is allowing 348 yards per game on defense including 227 passing and 122 rushing yards. Ole Miss is #35 or better in total and rush defense. The Rebels have forced 17 turnovers and have 21 of their own. Ole Miss averages 62 penalty yards per game and opponents  average 50. The Rebels are 56/136 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 65/176. Ole Miss has 16 sacks and has allowed 15 this season. The Rebels are 34/41 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns, and opponents are 27/32 with 14 touchdowns. The Rebels have three defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Chad Kelly has completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,856 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and has 63 carries for 162 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ryan Buchanan has thrown for 96 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. DeVante Kincade has thrown for 79 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 87 yards on 9 carries.

Running back Jaylen Walton has 100 carries for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 14 catches for 116 yards.  Akeem Judd has 51 catches for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 8 catches. Jordan Wilkins has 58 carries for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Eugene Brazley has 17 carries for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Laquon Treadwell has 61 catches for 870 yards and six touchdowns, and also threw a touchdown pass. Cody Core has 25 catches for 452 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 30 catches for 446 yards and 6 touchdowns. Damore’ea Stringfellow has 28 catches for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Markell Pack has 24 catches for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evan Engram has 22 catches for 232 yards and a touchdown. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Arkansas is 7-1 ATS against teams with winning home records, 6-1 in road games, 5-1 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 9-2 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-1 in November, 6-2 after failing to cover, in SEC games, and after gaining 450 total yards or more, 5-2 after a straight up win by 20 points or more, 12-5 against teams with winning records, and after allowing 450 total yards or more, 14-6 overall, 35-17 after scoring more than 40 points, 3-9 after passing for more than 280 yards and 1-4 on fieldturf. The underdog has covered the last four games in this series. Arkansas is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games in this series.

Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS at home, 7-3 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 21-10-1 on fieldturf, 5-17 in November, 1-7 after allowing less than 20 points, and 0-4 after a straight up win. The under is 7-2 in this series recently. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Ole Miss still can win the SEC West title. The Rebels already have a win over Alabama and play LSU later this month. However, Ole Miss can’t overlook a dangerous Arkansas team that is trying to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks offense struggled earlier in the season but they have scored 54 and 63 points in the last two games, granted against weak competition. I like the Rebels to win in a high scoring game by pulling away late.

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