Houston Rockets AT San Antonio Spurs
Jan 29, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  San Antonio -8.5
Current Line: San Antonio -8.5
Opening Total:  210
Current Total: 212
Opening Moneyline:  SA -425 / Hou +355
Current Moneyline: SA -460 / Hou +350

Things have been going smoothly as usual for the Spurs, who have won 17 straight at home, but part of that can be attributed to an easy schedule, which will take a severe turn after tonight’s game; the Spurs have a nine game road trip that leads up to the All-Star weekend.

San Antonio dropped a bad game to the Hornets (mentioned in another writeup today), but that’s acceptable given the Hornets’ play of late.  They went on to win their next two against Golden State and Utah, with Manu Ginobili leading the Spurs with a 23 point average for the two victories.  The high scoring games that the Spurs are playing are not typical San Antonio Gregg Popovich victories, but Manu Ginobili hasn’t forgotten what made the Spurs the great team they have been over the last decade.  “We are better offensively this season than we were in our championship seasons. But we need to raise the defensive level to what we had then, and we will be very, very good,” Ginobili said.  If the Spurs start playing typical Spurs defense and keep up the red hot offensive play, they will be near unstoppable, as they are already a league best 39-7.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games and it has gone OVER In 5 of their last 5 on the road.  The total has also gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 meetings against San Antonio and the Rockets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 against the Spurs.  The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the last 22 meetings against the Spurs, as well, and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 17 road games against San Antonio.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 road games in San Antonio, too, and the Rockets are 4-21 SU in their last 25 road games against the Spurs.

The Total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio’s last 11 games and they are 10-1 SU in those games.  They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 home gamse.  The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of their last 5 home games but it has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Houston.  San Antonio is 15-8 SU in their last 23 against the Rockets and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against them.  San Antonio is 21-4 SU in their last 25 home games against Houston and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against Houston.  The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 17 games at home against the Rockets, as well.

Key Matchups:

Luis Scola vs. Tim Duncan

Scola is the second leading scorer on the Rockets with 19 a game, and while Duncan is far from the defensive stalwart he was during his prime, he is still very good.  Scola will be forced to rely on his outside jumper as taking the ball to the hole against Duncan can be very tricky and unrewarding.  Scola has the outside game though to still have a big night and he did indeed have one last game against the Spurs, scoring 20 and grabbing 8 boards, though the Rockets lost the game by 3.  Duncan had a big night in his own right, though, as well, as he scored 19 (5 above his season average) and grabbed 11 rebounds.  This matchup will go a long way towards determining the outcome of the game since both players are relied on heavily for both scoring and rebounding.  While they battled to a stalemate pretty much in the first meeting, it may be different tonight.

Kyle Lowry & Aaron Brooks vs. Tony Parker & George Hill

This duo matchup at point guard should prove to be an exciting one.  All four of these players are among the fastest in the league and will look to push the pace as much as possible.  Parker has had a recent history of excellent games against the Rockets and had a monster 21 point 14 assist game in the last meeting.  Lowry did not play that game, and he is currently starting for the Rockets, so that may make a difference as Lowry’s all around game translates well to the fast paced game.  Brooks scored 18 and will come off the bench to provide a spark tonight.

Tonight’s game will be fast paced and exciting and it’s an interesting bet on the total. Given the fact that they vastly exceeded it last game, an ‘over’ bet on it would be prudent to make.