Picking Over The Props

I want to take a look at some of the Super Bowl props that I find interesting. Before I do, though, I want to make it clear that I think props are good for a bit of fun, but absolutely nothing else. They are worth playing for entertain, but if you are looking at them as a serious bet then, in my eyes, you are fooling yourself. They are a gamble, and the Super Bowl is all about gambling, so have at it. Just be sure to shop around for the best odds. Here are five props that I like:

Player to win MVP – Santonio Holmes (+1500)
– Looking at all the possible players, this is the one I like best. Holmes is Pittsburgh’s best chance at making the type of acrobatic play that MVP voters love. I don’t necessarily think he will win, but his price best reflects value. For less value I don’t mind the idea of playing both QBs, either. It would return a profit either way.

Player to score first TD – Tim Hightower (10/1)
– There are a lot of ways that this game could play out, but one is that Arizona’s offense could find a way to move early on and then punch it in when they get close. If that happens then Hightower would likely get the score. The chances of that happening seem better than 10/1 to me.

Will the Cardinals score in every quarter? – Arizona has scored in 11 of 12 quarters in the playoffs. It pays +295 if they do it again here. Seems like it is worth a shot.

Will the team that scores last win the game? – The Steelers did not score last in theirs against the Chargers, and the Cardinals did not score last against the Panthers and the Falcons.  Therefore, the winners haven’t scored last in three of the teams’ five playoff games. The odds are +195 that the last team to score won’t win. It seems worth a bet at that price.

Total punts in the game by both teams? – The Steelers have punted an average of 5.5 times per playoff game. The Cardinals are at five. The pressure and intensity of the Super Bowl is probably good for an extra punt or two because of the nerves teams will have early on. It’s probably not likely to lead to fewer punts. That makes the over attractive – especially since it pays +105.

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Posted by on Jan 29 2009. Filed under NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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