Pac 12 College Football Picks: #7 Stanford Cardinal at #10 Washington Huskies
#7 Stanford Cardinal at #10 Washington Huskies
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Friday, September 30, 2016, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Washington -3 1/2
Current Line: Washington -3 (-125)
Opening Total: 47 (under -125)
Current Total: 44 (under -115)
Opening Money Line: Washington -155 / Stanford +135
Current Money Line: Washington -170 / Stanford +150
The playoff picture should start to solidify as six of the top ten teams in the rankings play against each other. It all starts with a Pac 12 North showdown between the #7 Stanford Cardinal and #10 Washington Huskies Friday night in Seattle. The Cardinal are 3-0 and the Huskies are 4-0 this season. Every other team in the North Division has at least two losses, so the winner of this game will obviously be in the driver’s seat.
The series is tied 41-41-4 between Stanford and Washington. The Huskies are 21-20-3 in Seattle against the Cardinal. Stanford has won seven of the last eight games in the series, including 31-14 last year in Stanford. The last Washington win in the series was in 2012.
Stanford is is coached by David Shaw and is 2-0 in conference. The Cardinal have home wins over Kansas State 26-13 and USC 27-10, along with a road win at UCLA 22-13 last week. Stanford trailed 10-3 at halftime and 13-9 with 6:32 left in the fourth. The Cardinal took the lead with 24 seconds left on an 8 yard touchdown pass. Stanford added another touchdown on a 42 yard fumble return as time expired to make the final 22-13. The Cardinal were 2 point favorites against UCLA and the total was 47.5. Stanford is 3-0 ATS and all three games have gone under the total.
Washington is coached by Chris Petersen. The Huskies are 1-0 ATS in the PAC 12. Washington has home wins over Rutgers 48-13, Idaho 59-14, and Portland State 41-3. The Huskies won the Pac 12 opener at Arizona last week 35-28 in overtime. The game was back and forth as neither team led by more than 7 points. Arizona tied it up at 28 with 17 seconds left to send it into OT. The Wildcats got down to the 11 yard line but instead of kicking the field goal, they went for it on fourth and ten but were not successful. It didn’t matter as the Huskies scored a touchdown on their possession to survive 35-28. The Huskies were 16 point favorites against the Wildcats and the total was 58.5. Washington is 2-2 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.
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Stanford is outscoring teams 25-12 this season. The Cardinal are #96 in scoring but #8 in points allowed. Stanford averages 342 yards per game on offense including 140 passing and 202 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #109 or worse in total and passing offense. On defense, Stanford allows 338 yards per game including 242 passing and 95 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #17 in rush defense nationally and #32 in pass defense. Stanford is even in turnovers with 4 takeaways and 4 giveaways. The Cardinal average 32 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. Stanford is 20/40 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 21/51. The Cardinal have forced 11 sacks and allowed 4 this season. Stanford is 5/5 scoring in the red zone with 2 touchdowns and opponents are 7/9 with 3 touchdowns.
Quarterback Ryan Burns has completed 61.4% of his passes for 395 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and has 13 carries for 21 yards. Keller Chryst has also taken a few snaps.
Running back Christian McCaffrey is again a Heisman contender, but the Cardinal’s lack of overall offensive performance could hurt his chances. He has 79 carries for 436 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 12 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. He is also the primary punt and kick returner. Bryce Love has 16 carries for 102 yards. Fullback Daniel Marx is out Friday for undisclosed reasons.
Receiver Trenton Irwin has 9 catches for 105 yards. Michael Rector has 6 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 carries for 57 rushing yards and a touchdown. Tight end Greg Taboada is questionable for undisclosed reasons. Receiver Francis Owusu is out with a concussion.
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Washington is outscoring teams 46-15 this season. The Huskies are #15 or better in both categories. Washington averages 445 yards per game on offense including 250 passing and 196 rushing yards. On defense, the Huskies allow 321 total yards including 175 passing yards and 146 rushing yards. Washington is #26 or better in total and pass defense. The Huskies are +9 in turnovers with 13 takeaways. Washington averages 47 penalty yards per game and opponents average 29. The Huskies are 19/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 30/78. Washington has forced 13 turnovers and allowed 9 sacks this season. The Huskies are 24/30 with 22 touchdowns and opponents are 18/24 with 12 touchdowns.
Quarterback Jake Browning has completed 70.5% of his passes for 904 yards with 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 19 rushing yards and a touchdown. K.J. Carta-Samuels has thrown for 95 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Running back Myles Gaskin has 64 carries for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 6 catches for 29 yards and a touchdown. Lavon Coleman has 27 carries for 261 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 19 yards. Jamon Dotson has 23 carries for 118 yards.
Receiver Chico McClatcher has 12 catches for 269 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 62 yards. John Ross has 17 catches for 195 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 28 rushing yards and a touchdown. Dante Pettis has 11 catches for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns. Darrell Daniels has 10 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown. Three other Huskies have a touchdown catch.
Stanford is 5-0 ATS in Friday games, 4-0 in road games, 6-1 against teams with winning home records, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 8-2 after allowing less than 20 points, 10-3 after a cover, 20-6 after passing for less than 170 yards, 22-8 in September, 38-16-1 in Pac 12 games, 52-24-1 overall, 34-16-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, and 40-19-1 after a win. The under is 9-3 in this series recently including 5-1 in Seattle.
Washington is 5-1 ATS on fieldturf, 7-2 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 16-5-1 after accumulating less than 170 passing yards, 5-2 after allowing 450 total yards or more and overall, 15-7 after failing to cover, 2-6 against teams with winning road record, and 1-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.
Washington scores a lot of points but they haven’t played a good team yet. Not even Arizona is very good this year. The defense has been strong as well. We will find out how good this team really is though against Stanford. The Cardinal have struggled on offense but has faced a tough schedule. I think Stanford wins a tough game on the road in a low scoring game.