Pac 12 College Football Betting Week #5: Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon State Beavers

Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon State Beavers
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon

Saturday, September 28, 2013, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Oregon State -10 1/2
Current Line: Oregon State -11
Opening Total: 59 1/2
Current Total: 59 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon State -360 / Colorado +300
Current Money Line: Oregon State -460 / Colorado +365

Oregon State is an 11 point favorite at home against Colorado.
Oregon State is an 11 point favorite at home against Colorado.

The 2-0 Colorado Buffaloes haven’t played in three weeks after their game September 14 against Fresno State was postponed due to the devastating flooding in the Boulder area. The Buffaloes had a scheduled week off last week. Colorado now travels to Oregon State in the Pac 12 opener for the Buffaloes. Oregon State is 3-1 this season including 1-0 in the Pac 12. Oregon State leads the series 3-2 against Colorado, and won the last meeting in 1988 in Boulder.

Colorado is coached by Mike MacIntyre in his first year. The Buffaloes beat rival Colorado State in Denver 41-27 to open the season, and beat Central Arkansas 38-24 in Boulder before the flooding. Colorado has already doubled their win total from last year after winning just once last year. Colorado is 2-0 ATS and the total is 1-1. The Buffaloes barely covered the 13.5 point number against Central Arkansas and the game went under the 63.5 point total.

Colorado jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Central Arkansas tied it up before halftime. In the 3rd quarter, the teams exchanged field goals to make it 17-17. The Bears scored on the first play of the fourth to go up 24-17. The Buffaloes would rebound by scoring the last 21 points of the game to win by 14. Colorado had 425 total yards including 341 passing yards. CAU had 340 total yards including 60 rushing yards. each team had 4 turnovers but Colorado had 2 pick sixes, including the game-tying score in the fourth.

Colorado is outscoring teams 40-26 this season. The Buffaloes are averaging 467 total yards per game including the nation’s 7th best passing attack at 370.5 yards per game but the rushing attack is #112 out of 125 teams at 96.5 yards per game. On defense, Colorado is allowing 317.5 total yards per game including the 7th best rush defense in the country at 77 yards per game. The Buffaloes are +2 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Colorado is averaging 66 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 51. The Buffaloes are 12/30 on third down conversions, and opponents are 11/39 on third and fourth down conversions. Colorado is 4/4 scoring in the red zone with one touchdown, and opponents are 6/8 with 4 touchdowns. The Buffaloes have 3 defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Connor Wood has completed 68.3% of his passes for 741 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Tony Joness and Christian Powell will split the carries, but neither has more than 85 yards. Receiver Paul Richardson has 21 catches, 417 yards and 4 touchdowns. Nelson Spruce has 12 catches, 161 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Justin Castor is out for the season with a hip injury.

Oregon St is coached by Mike Riley. After a season opening loss at home to Eastern Washington 49-46, Oregon State has three straight wins at home over Hawaii 33-14, and at Utah 51-48 in overtime and San Diego St 34-30, The beavers are   1-3 ATS and the total  is 3-1. Oregon State was a 7 point favorite at San Diego St and the total was 55.

After San Diego St  scored first to take a 7-0 lead, Oregon State scored 14 straight to go up 14-7. The Aztecs scored 20 unanswered to take a 27-14 going into the fourth. The Beavers scored early in the 4th to pull within 27-21. SDSU added a field goal to go up 30-21. Oregon State scored with 2:40 left to make it 30-28, and then 9 seconds later took the lead on a 16 yard pick six 34-30, but failed on a two point conversion attempt. San Diego st’s final drive ended with an interception at midfield, and the Beavers ran out the clock. Oregon State had 377 total yards but just 10 rushing yards. San Diego St had 325 total yards and 74 rushing yards. Each team had 2 turnovers, and they combined for 22 penalties for 186 yards.

Oregon State is outscoring teams 41-35 this season. The Beavers are averaging 475.8 yards per game including 420.8 passing yards. The Beavers are third in the nation in passing yards but are #124th out of 125 teams in rushing at 55 yards per game.  On defense, Oregon State is allowing 432 total yards per game including 287 passing yards. OSU is 93rd or worse in total defense, against the pass and points allowed. The Beavers are +3 in turnovers with six takeaways. The Beavers average 65 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 62. OSU is 31/63 on third and fourth down conversions. The Beavers have forced 11 sacks so far in four games and allowed 4 . Oregon State is 22/22 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. The beavers have 2 pick sixes and have allowed one.

OSU quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 71.5% of his passes for 1,604 yards with 15 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Storm Woods has 45 carries 152 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 143 yards. He is listed as doubtful with a concussion after missing last week. Terron Ward started last week and will continue to get most of the carries until Woods comes back. Ward has 30 carries for 69 yards and 2 touchdown,along with 7 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 43 catches, 639 yards and 7 touchdowns. Richard Mullaney has 22 catches, 344 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Connor Hamlett has 20 catches, 41 yards and 2 touchdowns. Three Beaver offensive linemen are listed as questionable to out Saturday.

Colorado is 4-1 ATS overall, 8-3 after passing for more than 280 yards, 16-35 in road games, 8-20 in Pac 12 games, 4-12 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 4-13 against teams with winning records, 1-4 after both a win and a cover, 2-8 on fieldturf, and 1-5 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less.

Oregon State is 6-1 ATS after failing to cover, after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 6-2 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 7-3-1 against teams with winning records, 9-20-1 in September, 1-4 at home, against teams with winning home records, and overall, and 1-5 after a straight up win.

Both of these teams have explosive offenses especially in the passing game. Colorado hasn’t been terrible on defense, but they haven’t played anyone yet. Colorado has been effective at stopping the run but Oregon State doesn’t really run the ball a lot. This should be a high scoring game, and I see Oregon State pulling away late and potentially even covering the spread.

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