California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Thursday, October 22, 2015, 9:00 Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: UCLA -4
Current Line: UCLA -3 (-120)
Opening Total: 67
Current Total: 68 1/2
Opening Money Line: UCLA -160 / California +140
Current Money Line: UCLA -165 / California +145
Three weeks ago UCLA was undefeated and ranked in the top ten nationally. However, two straight double digit losses have sent them careening out of the top 25. The 4-2 Bruins look to rebound as they host the 5-1 California Golden Bears Thursday night at the Rose Bowl. California is 2-1 and tied with Washington State for second in the Pac 12 North division behind 4-0 Stanford. UCLA is 1-2 in the Pac 12 South behind undefeated Utah.
UCLA leads the series 52-32-1 against Cal. The Bruins have won three of the last four including two straight in the series. UCLA escaped with a 36-34 win at Berkeley last year.
California is coached by Sonny Dykes. Two weeks ago the Golden Bears suffered their first loss of the season at Utah 30-24. Cal has home wins over Grambling 73-14, San Diego State 35-7 and Washington State 34-28. The Golden Bears have road wins at Texas 45-44 and Washington 30-24. California was off last week.
Cal was a 7.5 point underdog at Utah and the total was 60.5. The game was very sloppy with nine combined turnovers including six by the Golden Bears. Heavy rainfall occurred during most of the game. Utah led by as many as 14 points, but could never really put them away. Utah kicked a field goal early in the fourth to take a 30-24 lead. Cal had three more chances but they ended with a punt, an interception and a turnover on downs. The teams combined for over 900 yards of total offense. The Golden Bears are 4-2 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season.
UCLA is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Bruins have losses at home to Arizona State 38-23 and Stanford last Thursday at Stanford 56-35. UCLA has home wins over Virginia 34-16 and BYU 24-23, plus road wins at 37-3 and Arizona 56-30.
UCLA was a 6.5 point underdog at Stanford and the total was 56. UCLA actually had 506 total yards to 441 for Stanford, but the Bruins had two turnovers to one for the Cardinal. Stanford never trailed and led by as many as 25 points in the first half and 36 in the second half. UCLA added 15 points in the fourth quarter strictly for cosmetic reasons. The Bruins are 2-3-1 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season.
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Cal is outscoring teams 40-25 this season. California is #12 in scoring nationally. The Golden Bears average 518 yards per game on offense, including 355 passing and 162 rushing. Cal is #12 in total offense and #8 in passing. California is allowing 395 total yards per game on defense, including 236 passing and 159 rushing yards. The Bears have forced 21 turnovers and have 16 of their own. Cal averages 38 penalty yards per game and opponents average 67 yards per game. The Golden Bears are 42/93 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 37/98. Cal has forced 19 sacks and allowed 15 of their own. The Bears are 28/33 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Opponents are 17/18 with 12 touchdowns. The Golden Bears have two pick sixes and a fumble return for a touchdwon this season.
Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,970 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Back-up Chase Forrest has thrown for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Running back Daniel Lasco is probable with a hip injury. He has 35 carries for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 31 yards. Khalfani Muhammad has 43 carries for 391 yards and a touchdown, plus 7 catches for 64 yards. Vic Enwere has 63 carries for 312 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 5 catches. Tre Watson has 33 carries for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 27 yards.
Receiver Kenny Lawler has 34 catches for 465 yards and 8 touchdowns. Stephen Anderson has 23 catches for 297 yards. Darius Powe has 20 catches for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. Trevor Davis has 15 catches for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bryce Treggs has 18 catches for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. Maurice Harris has 15 catches for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jack Austin is out until late October with a foot injury.
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UCLA is outscoring teams 35-28 this season. The Bruins are #37 in scoring nationally. UCLA is averaging 463 yards per game on offense, including 267 passing and 196 rushing yards. The Bruins are #36 or better in all three categories. On defense, UCLA is allowing 392 total yards including 176 passing and 216 rushing yards. The Bruins are #20 nationally in pass defense but #114 in rush defense out of 128 teams. UCLA has forced nine turnovers this season but has nine of their own. The Bruins average 75 penalty yards per game and opponents average 47 yards per game. UCLA is 37/95 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 41/110. The Bruins have forced nine sacks and have allowed 7 this season. UCLA is 26/30 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns and opponents are 18/22 with 11 touchdowns. UCLA has a pick six this season.
Quarterback Josh Rosen has completed 59% of his passes for 1,568 yards with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Running back Paul Perkins has 114 carries for 699 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 112 yards. Nate Starks has 27 carries for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a concussion. Bolu Olorunfunmi and Soso Jamabo will also get some carries.
Receiver Jordan Payton has 31 catches for 486 yards and 4 touchdowns. Thomas Duarte has 23 catches for 348 yards and 5 touchdowns. Nate Iese has 9 catches for 77 yards. Devin Fuller has 15 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. Mossi Johnson has 8 catches for 41 yards, but is out for the season with a knee injury.
Four defensive players are out for the season, including star linebacker Myles Jack who suffered a knee injury and withdrew from school to prepare for the NFL draft. Jack also moonlights as a short yardage running back and had a rushing touchdown. Four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Cal is 7-1 ATS in road games, 5-1 against teams with winning road records, 5-2 against teams with winning records, 2-5 in Thursday games, 5-14 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 8-24 after a straight up loss, 2-6 after a cover, 4-12 on grass, and 3-11 after allowing more than 200 total yards. The underdog is 13-5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS against the Bruins recently. The under is 4-1 in this series recently and 5-2 in Pasadena between the teams.
UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS after a straight up loss of more than 20 points, 17-7 against teams with winning road records, 9-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 2-6 after a straight up loss and after passing for 280 yards or more, 1-3-1 at home and on grass, and 5-22 in October. The home team is 5-0 ATS in this series recently. The Bruins are 5-1-1 at home against the Golden Bears recently.
UCLA is still a very talented and dangerous team despite the two losses. Cal is improving and gave Utah all they could handle. I think The Bruins win a close game.