Pac 12 Betting Picks: #6 Stanford Cardinal at #25 Oregon State Beavers
#6 Stanford Cardinal at #25 Oregon State Beavers
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon
Saturday, October 26, 2013, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Stanford -6 1/2
Current Line: Stanford -4
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Stanford -180 / Oregon State +155
Current Money Line: Stanford -185 / Oregon State +160
The 6-1 Stanford Cardinal are 4-1 in the Pac 12 North as they travel to the 6-1 Oregon State Beavers Saturday night. Oregon State is 4-0 in the Pac 12 North and tied with Oregon for first. This is an important game for both the Cardinal and the Beavers because the winner will stay alive for a possible BCS at-large berth plus the conference title. Stanford leads the series 51-26-3 against Oregon State. The Cardinal have won three straight against the Beavers and four of the last five. Stanford won last year at home 27-23.
Stanford is coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal suffered their only defeat of the season two weeks ago at Utah 27-21. Stanford has home wins over San Jose State 34-13, Arizona State 42-28, Washington 31-28 and last week against UCLA 24-10, along with road wins at Army 34-20 and Washington State 55-17. The Cardinal are 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Stanford was a 4.5 point favorite at home against then undefeated and #9 ranked UCLA last week and the total was 55.
Stanford took a 3-0 halftime lead over UCLA. The Bruins tied it up early in the third, but the Cardinal scored 14 points in the third quarter to go up 17-3. UCLA pulled to within 17-10 early in the fourth quarter. UCLA would have two punts and an interception before Stanford put the game away with a touchdown with 1:42 left to make it 24-10. Stanford had 419 total yards including 192 rushing yards. UCLA had 266 total yards including 192 passing. The Bruins had 2 turnovers and the Cardinal had one.
Stanford is outscoring teams 34-20 this season. The Cardinal are #39 in scoring and #24 in points allowed. The Cardinal are averaging 407.1 yards per game on offense including 208.3 passing and 198.9 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #88 in passing and #38 in rushing nationally. On defense, Stanford is allowing 363.8 total yards per game, including 247.1 passing yards and 116.4 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #18 in rush defense and #35 in total defense, but the pass defense is #86 nationally. Stanford is -2 in turnovers with 10 takeaways. Stanford is 53/105 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 46/122. Stanford averages 43 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. The Cardinal have forced 19 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Stanford is 22/24 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns and opponents are 17/20 with 12 touchdowns. The Cardinal have two pick sixes this season and 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns.
Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has completed 62.9% of his passes for 1,405 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 picks, along with 40 carries for 174 yards and a touchdown. Running back Tyler Gaffney has 144 carries, 744 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 9 catches, 66 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Wilkerson has 53 carries, 207 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 38 yards. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 36 catches, 564 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus two kickoff returns for touchdowns. Devon Cajuste has 21 catches, 377 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable Saturday with a knee injury. Michael Rector has 4 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. Stanford kicker Jordan Williamson is questionable with a leg injury. Conrad Ukropina will handle the kicking duties if Williamson can’t go.
Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. After a season opening home loss to Eastern Washington 49-46, Oregon State has won 6 straight games. The Beavers have home wins over Hawaii 33-14 and against Colorado 44-17. OSU also has road wins at Utah 51-48 in overtime, San Diego State 34-30, at Washington State 52-24 and last week at California 49-17. The Beavers are 4-3 ATS and the total is 5-2 this season. Oregon State was an 11 point favorite at Cal and the total was 71.5.
Oregon State took a 28-3 halftime lead at California last week, and cruised to a 49-17 win. The Beavers had 570 total yards including 496 passing yards. The Golden Bears had 366 total yards including 291 passing yards. Each team had 8 penalties. Cal had 4 turnovers and Oregon State had 2.
Oregon State is outscoring teams 44-28 this season. Oregon State is #9 in scoring but #75 in points allowed. The Beavers are averaging 515.9 yards per game including 442.1 passing and 73.7 rushing yards. The Beavers lead the nation in passing yards but are #124 out of 125 teams in rushing. OSU is #8 in total offense. On defense, Oregon State is allowing 396.7 total yards per game including 265 passing and 131.7 rushing yards. OSU is #103 in pass defense but #29 against the rush. The Beavers are +10 in turnovers with 19 takeaways. The Beavers average 58 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 64. OSU is 51/107 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 36/104. The Beavers have forced 14 sacks and allowed 9 this season. Oregon State is 40/46 scoring in the red zone with 34 touchdowns and opponents are 21/22 with 12 touchdowns. The Beavers have 2 pick sixes and have allowed one.
OSU quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 68.6% of his passes for 2,992 yards with 29 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Mannion has been mentioned as a possible Heisman contender. Running back Storm Woods has 64 carries 193 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 290 yards and a touchdown. Terron Ward has 64 carries for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns,along with 18 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 76 catches, 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Richard Mullaney has 32 catches, 538 yards and touchdowns. Tight end Connor Hamlett has 25 catches, 198 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Kevin Cummings, Caleb Smith and Kellen Clute each have at least two touchdown catches and Smith has 3.
Stanford is 9-2-1 ATS against teams with winning home records, 11-3 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 20-7-1 after a cover, 19-7-1 in road games, 20-8-1 in Pac 12 games, 17-7 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 35-15-1 after a straight up win, 9-4 in October, 17-8 against teams with winning records, 35-17-1 overall, and 0-4 after allowing 20 points or less. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 in this series, including 5-1 in Corvallis. The Cardinal have covered four of the last five games against the Beavers.
Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in Pac 12 games, and on fieldturf, 7-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 4-1 after a straight up win, after rushing for less than 100 yards, and overall, 9-3-1 against teams with winning records, 42-15-1 in October, 8-3 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 47-23-2 after passing for more than 280 yards, 2-5 after a cover, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more. The home team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Beavers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 in Corvallis against Stanford.
Oregon State has one of the most explosive passing offenses in the country but they can’t stop anyone. The Beavers haven’t played a defense that is nearly as strong as the Cardinal and I think Stanford’s defense will be able to slow down OSU just enough to take a tough road win by a field goal.