NL Betting: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds  (11-11) AT Milwaukee Brewers (11-10)
April 25, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  MIL -122, CIN +112
Current Moneyline:  MIL -127, CIN +117
Opening Total:  7
Current Total:  7

SP:  CIN:  Bronson Arroyo, MIL:  Chris Narveson

Arroyo is 2-2 on the season

The Reds began hot, and this is the team they did it again, sweeping the Brewers en route to establishing the longest undefeated streak of the MLB at 5 games.  Things haven’t been nearly as good since that time, and the Reds have now dropped to .500.

Reds’ starter Bronson Arroyo has lost both his last two starts as well, and currently has a 2-2 record with a 4.24 ERA.  He received a victory for his first outing this season despite being very sick with mononucleosis.  He is probable for today’s game, but could be a last minute scratch.  Last game against Milwaukee, Arroyo threw 65 of his 87 pitches for strikes, or 74.7%.   “He’s in good shape. He knows how to pace himself and knows his body, probably as well as anybody I’ve had,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said.  “He takes pride in winning, innings pitched and going deep in ballgames.”  Arroyo helped the Reds complete a sweep on April 3rd, as he gave up 3 runs in 7 innings of pitching, his last quality start.  Arroyo’s PECOTA projections are a 13-12 record with a 4.31 ERA.

“There are times when they come easy and it seems like they’re just going to keep coming,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official website. “You know eventually that you’re going to go down the other side of the mountain. Those are the times you have to come to the ballpark and try to simplify things.”

Joey Votto is hot, but no one else is.  The NL MVP of last year is batting .409 on the season with 6 HR and 19 RBIs in his last 18 games against Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has been very good offensively.  They are batting .332 with 42 runs & 6 HR in their last 6 games.  Ryan Braun has been a big part of the offensive onslaught.  He is batting .480 with 3 HR and 9 RBIs over the last six games.  He’s also reached base safely in 21 straight games to start the season, which is a club record for the Brewers.  In the last series with the Reds, Braun went 4 of 11 with 2 solo HRs.

Brewers’ starter Chris Narveson is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA.  In his first two starts against the Reds, he only had 3 runs of support, so he lost the only decision, despite an impressive 3.18 ERA.  In the last two Brewers’ losses, he gave up 6 runs in 11 2/3rds inning.  His PECOTA projection calls for a 6-6 record with a 4.74 ERA, down slightly from last year’s 4.99.  If the early season is any indication of his future performance, he will shatter that projection.

Some betting trends:

Cincinnati is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games.  It has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 road games while the Reds are 8-17 SU in their last 25 road games.  The Reds are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Reds are also 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 6 games.  The total has also gone OVER In 4 of their last 6 at home while the Brewers are 4-1 SU in their last 5  at  home.  Milwaukee is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Cincinnati Reds and the Brewers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home against the Reds.

Milwaukee is slightly favored in this game due to their offensive production.  With Arroyo struggling a little, this could be trouble for the Reds.  The Reds have to give Joey Votto some help offensively if they are going to regain the form they started the season with.

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