NFL Week 3 Picks, Trends: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Giovani Bernard had the lone Bengals' offensive TD last week.

Giovani Bernard had the lone Bengals’ offensive TD last week.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
Time: NOON CT (CBS)
Spread: CIN -3.5
M/L: CIN -190, DEN +165
Total: 42.5

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

The Denver Broncos are 2-0 after defeating Carolina and Indianapolis in Weeks 1 and 2. Week 3 promises to bring a big challenge with the 1-1 Cincinnati Bengals hosting them at Noon (Central) on CBS. NFL oddsmakers have set the line 3.5-points in favor of the hosting Bengals.

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Last week, the Broncos handily defeated the Colts 34-20. Former Northwestern quarterback Trevor Sieman had a strong showing, throwing 22 of 33 for 266 yards. He did not throw a TD and was intercepted, while also incurring a sack, but getting that many yards from the 2015 draft pick was a boon. He has thrown 67.8 percent for completion, and he is averaging 7.53 yards per attempt. Where it gets less impressive is the fact he has thrown three interceptions already with just one TD. He threw two picks in his season debut against Carolina, and the Broncos are a good football team but not enough to overcome regular picks and turnovers.

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Sieman hooked up with Demaryius Thomas for five catches and 90 yards, and five Broncos had at least three receptions in the game. Getting 266 passing yards without a single reception TD is going to sting though. Brandon McManus’ leg was active, as he kicked 4 of 5 FGA and 2 of 2 extra points, while hitting a long of 43-yards and accounting for 14 points.

Aqib Talib scored a TD for the defense off an interception, going 46 yards on the play. Riley Dixon did a superb job punting the football, averaging 49 yards on his two punts. It was those small but game-changing plays by Talib and McManus that made the Broncos Week 2 winners.

The Bengals meanwhile are coming off a 24-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Andy Dalton threw 54 passes in the game (completing 31) while racking up 366 yards and a TD. Dalton is battling an issue with his hip, but he is expected to play.

The Bengals rushed for just 46 yards last week, and averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt on its 18 carries. But the receivers did work: Six Bengals caught for at least 30 yards in the game, led by Giovani Bernard’s 100 yards on nine catches. Bernard also scored the Bengals only touchdown (though he did fumble once and it was lost).

Defensively, Karlos Dansby had a huge game with 10 tackles (eight solo) and two for loss. The Bengals had just one sack and four tackles for loss, but Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick both had interceptions and Ben Roethlisberger was just 19 of 37 passing with the two interceptions.

Anytime “Big Ben” can be held to a passer rating under 75, the defense has done its job. Forcing similar miscues from Sieman may be too easy given his inexperience. Though Cincy is just 3.5-point favorites in this game, it is conceivable that they will by at least a full touchdown with the home cooking and QB experience factors working in its favor.

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ATS TRENDS

Denver
  • Broncos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
Cincinnati
  • Bengals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 3.
  • Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Bengals are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
  • Bengals are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games in September.
  • Bengals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 5-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Bengals are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. AFC.
  • Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

OU TRENDS

Denver
  • Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 20-6-1 in Broncos last 27 games on fieldturf.
  • Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 3.
  • Over is 44-20-2 in Broncos last 66 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cincinnati
  • Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-2 in Bengals last 10 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Bengals last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 games on fieldturf.
  • Under is 7-3 in Bengals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
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Posted by on Sep 25 2016. Filed under Headlines, NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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