NFL Week 14 Betting: Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 9, 2012, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Candlestick Park – San Francisco, California
Opening Line: San Francisco -10 1/2
Current Line: San Francisco -10
Opening Total: 40
Current Total: 38 1/2
Opening Money Line: 49ers -525 / Dolphins +425
Current Money Line: 49ers -525 / Dolphins +425
The 8-3-1 San Francisco 49ers host the 5-7 Miami Dolphins Sunday. The Dolphins are technically still alive for the AFC playoffs but they need to win their remaining 4 games and get help from a lot of other teams. For the 49ers, this game is very important. San Francisco leads Seattle by a game and a half in the NFC West Division. The 49ers also lead Green Bay and Chicago by a half game for the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs and the first round bye that comes with it. The 49ers also have a shot of catching the 11-1 Atlanta Falcons for the #1 seed, but need some help.
The Dolphins have lost 4 of their last 5 games under first year coach Joe Philbin. Miami lost at home last week to the New England Patriots 23-16. The 9-3 Patriots clinched the AFC East title with the win last week. The other three teams in the division are 5-7 including Miami. The Dolphins are 6-6 ATS and the total is 4-8 this season.
San Francisco is coached by Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers are coming off a disappointing 16-13 overtime loss at the St. Louis Rams last week, despite having an 8 point lead late in the game. This came 3 weeks after the two teams tied 24-24 in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-5 ATS and the total is 5-6-1.
Miami has won 2 of the last 3 meetings with San Francisco, but they only play every 4 years because the teams are in different conferences. The Dolphins won the last meeting at home 14-9 in 2008.
Miami is averaging 317.6 yards per game on offense, including 209.1 passing and 108.5 rushing yards. The Dolphins are being outscored 21-19 this season. Miami is -10 in turnovers. The Dolphins have forced 29 sacks and allowed 22 this season. Miami is 55/151 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, the Dolphins are allowing 355.3 yards per game, including 257.7 passing and 97.7 rushing yards. Miami is #8 in rush defense, and #11 in points allowed. The Dolphins have 3 special teams touchdowns this season.
Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has completed 57.9% of his passes for 2,559 yards with 7 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, along with 82 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Tannehill has been sacked 23 times this season. Though his numbers aren’t terrible, they suffer in comparison to the spectacular numbers fellow rookie QB’s Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are putting up this season.
Reggie Bush has 165 carries, 726 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 189 yards. Daniel Thomas has 88 carries, 316 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 156 yards. Lamar Miller and Javorskie Lane will also get a few carries. Marcus Thigpen has a punt return and kickoff return both for touchdowns Receiver Brian Hartline has 60 catches, 891 yards and a touchdown. Davone Bess has 56 catches, 728 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Anthony Fasano has 28 catches, 224 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fullback Charles Clay has 15 catches, 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a rib injury.
San Francisco is averaging 363.2 yards per game, including 201.2 passing yards and 161.9 rushing yards. The 49ers are #2 in rushing but #25 in passing. San Francisco is outscoring teams 24-14 this season. The 49ers are +5 in turnovers this season. San francisco has forced 30 sacks and allowed 34 this season. The 49ers are 58/152 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, the 49ers are allowing 279.6 yards per game including 189 passing yards and 90.6 rushing yards. San Francisco is in the top 3 in the league in all defensive categories. The 49ers have 3 defensive touchdowns this season.
A few weeks ago, Alex Smith suffered a concussion in the first game against the Rams. He was replaced at quarterback by Colin Kaepernick. Even after Smith got healthy Harbaugh stuck with Kaepernick, saying he had the “hot hand”, but Harbaugh has said Smith needs to stay ready. Many thought Harbaugh would go back to Smith when a costly Kaepernick fumble late in last week’s game against the Rams that was returned for a touchdown allowed the Rams to tie up the game with a two point conversion. Kaepernick remains the starter though. Smith has completed 70% of his passes for 1,731 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 29 carries for 134 yards. He has been sacked 24 times. Kaepernick has completed 65.1% of his passes for 888 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, along with 40 carries, 298 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has been sacked 9 times this season.
Running back Frank Gore has 199 carries, 972 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 21 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a wrist injury. His primary back-up Kendall Hunter is out for the season with a badly sprained ankle. Other than the quarterbacks no other 49er has more than 12 carries.
Receiver Michael Crabtree has 57 catches, 668 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Vernon Davis has 37 catches, 502 yards and 5 touchdowns. Mario Manningham has 41 catches, 449 yards and a touchdown, along with 64 rushing yards. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Randy Moss has 19 catches, 296 yards and 2 touchdowns. Delanie Walker has 12 catches, 186 yards and a touchdown. Kyle Williams is out for the season with a knee injury. Kicker David Akers is probable with a pelvis injury.
The Dolphins are 11-2 ATS against teams with winning records, 4-1 in December, 23-6 in road games against teams with losing road records, 9-3 after a straight up loss, 8-3 in road games, 9-4 after a cover, 6-2 in Week 14, and 15-7 overall.
The 49ers are 4-1 ATS after scoring 15 points or less, 13-4-1 at home, 17-6-3 after failing to cover, 19-7-2 after a straight up loss, 18-7-1 on grass, 21-9-1 overall, and 0-4 against teams with losing records.
Despite the loss last week, the 49er offense is moving a little better with Kaepernick at the helm than Smith. The Niners scored 30 points or more against the Bears and Saints in wins. The Dolphins’ defense might be able to keep this close for awhile, but San Francisco simply has too much.