NFL Week 13 Picks: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 12/2/12, 1:00 PM EST, TV:  CBS
Opening Point Spread:  New England -7
Current Betting Line:  New England -7
Opening Total:  51
Current Total:  51.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL Preview

The New England Patriots have the NFL’s best offense heading into Week 13

New England improved to 8-3 on the season with a resounding 49-19 victory over the New York Jets as seven-point road favorites on Thanksgiving Day, while going OVER the total for a ninth consecutive contest.  The Patriots have an NFL-best 41-5 record in the month of December since the 2001 campaign, including a perfect 4-0 mark a season ago.  New England is 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, which is important to consider when making your NFL picks against the spread in Week 13.

The Patriots have won eight of their last 10 games against the Dolphins, including last year’s two-game sweep in the series, but are just 14-33 all-time when playing in South Beach.  New England leads the league in scoring 37.0 points and averaging 435.8 yards per game, while quarterback Tom Brady owns a dominating 53-12 record against divisional opponents as a starter.  He has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,454 yards with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions during the team’s current five-game win streak.

Miami snapped a three-game losing streak by capturing a 24-21 come-from-behind victory over the Seattle Seahawks as three-point home underdogs last week, while going OVER the total for the first time in seven contests.  The Dolphins have lost the statistical battle in six of their last seven games, but did manage to out-gain the Seahawks by 123 yards.  Miami is 4-4 ATS in December the last two years, which should be considered when looking at the pro football odds page.

The Dolphins are minus-seven in turnover differential in losing the last four games in this series, which is something that’s significant in playing a first-year quarterback.  “They’re an opportunistic defense,” stated Dolphins signal-caller Ryan Tannehill this week.  On the other side of the ball, Miami ranks seventh in the league in stopping the run, but will be facing an attack that averages 143.7 yards per game on the ground.

Sports bettors will likely back the Patriots due to the road team covering eight of the last 10 meetings in this series, while the Dolphins are 23-52-1 ATS at home.

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