NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Betting: Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay, Florida

Monday, November 11, 2013, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Miami -3 1/2 (-105)
Current Line: Miami -1 1/2
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 41
Opening Money Line: Dolphins -145 / Buccaneers +125
Current Money Line: Dolphins -115 / Buccaneers +105

The Dolphins are a slight road favorite at the Buccaneers Monday night.

The Dolphins are a slight road favorite at the Buccaneers Monday night.

It has been a quiet and uneventful week for the Miami Dolphins with almost no media coverage about the team. I am being sarcastic of course because the whole Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin scandal has been  covered to death even on non-sports shows.  I won’ rehash it here because everyone knows most of the details. All you need to know is neither Incognito nor Martin will be playing for the Dolphins for the time being if they even return to the Dolphins.

In the midst of the media circus Miami still has a road  game to prepare for Monday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.The 4-4 Dolphins are a half game behind the New York Jets for the last wild car spot in the AFC but can tie them with a win Monday. Four AFC teams are at 4-5. The 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFL’s only winless team after the Jacksonville Jaguars won their first game of the season Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins and Buccaneers have only place twice since 2001, with each winning on their own home field. The Dolphins won the last game in Miami 25-23 in 2009. The in-state rivals do play every year during the pre-season though. The Buccaneers won this year’s game in Miami 17-16 for what it’s worth.

Miami is coached by Joe Philbin. The Dolphins opened the season 3-0 before losing 4 straight games. They snapped the losing streak on Halloween night at home against the Cincinnati Bengals with a 22-20 overtime victory. Miami also has a home win over the Atlanta Falcons 27-23, along with road wins over the Cleveland Browns 23-10 and the Indianapolis Colts 24-20. The Dolphins have road losses at the New Orleans Saints 38-17 and New England Patriots 27-17, along with home losses to the Baltimore Ravens 26-23 and Buffalo Bills 23-21. Miami is 4-4 ATS and the total is 5-2-1 this season. The Dolphins were 3 point underdogs at home against the Bengals and the total was 42.

The Dolphins took a 10-3 lead into halftime against the Bengals. Miami would expand the lead to 17-3 on a 94 yard pick six. Cincinnati  scored 17 straight points including the go ahead 54 yard field goal with 1:24 left in the fourth. Miami tied it up with a 44 yard yard field goal with 11 seconds to go. In overtime, Bengal’s quarterback Andy Dalton was tackled in his own end zone for the game winning safety for the Dolphins. It was only the third time in NFL history that  game ended on a safety in overtime. The safety made the score 22-20 which was right on the 42 point total. Cincinnati had 465 total yards including 302 passing. Miami had 345 total yards including 157 rushing yards. The Bengals were unable to overcome 4 turnovers to the Dolphin’s one turnover.

Miami is being outscored 23-22 this season. The Dolphins are averaging 315.2 yards per game including 217.6 passing and 97.6 rushing. Miami is 20th or worse in all offensive categories in #29 in total offense. On defense, the Dolphins are allowing 368.8 yards per game including 252.2 passing and 116.5 rushing. Miami is #22 or worse in all three categories. The Dolphins are even in turnovers. Miami is 43/116 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 50/125. The Dolphins have forced 25 sacks but allowed 35 this season. Miami has 2 defensive touchdowns and has allowed one this season. The Dolphins average 37 penalty yards per game and opponents average 49.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,977 yards with 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and he also has 22 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown. He has taken every snap this season despite being sacked 35 times this season. The offensive line struggled even before Martin left the team and Incognito was suspended indefinitely.

Running back Lamar Miller has 93 carries for 448 yards with and 2 touchdowns along with 13 catches for 72 yards. Daniel Thomas has 60 carries for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Mike Wallace has 36 catches for 480 yards and a touchdown. Brian Hartline has 38 catches for 477 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Charles Clay has 32 catches for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brandon Gibson had 30 catches for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns but is out for the season with a knee injury.

Tampa Bay is coached by Greg Schiano. The Buccaneers have road losses at the Jets 18-17, Patriots 23-3, Falcons 31-23, and last week at the Seattle Seahawks 27-24 in overtime, along with home losses to the Saints 16-14, Arizona Cardinals 13-10, Philadelphia Eagles 31-20 and Carolina Panthers 31-13. Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season. The Buccaneers were 16 point underdogs at the Seahawks last week and the total was 40.

Many thought the Buccaneers would get crushed in Seattle having to travel across the country to a place where the Seahawks are nearly impossible to beat at home. Well, someone forgot to tell Tampa Bay that. The Buccaneers jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, before the Seahawks finally scored just before halftime to make it 21-7. Tampa expanded the lead to 24-7 midway through the third. They would not score again, as Seattle ended the game on a 20-0 run including the game winning field goal in overtime to avoid the massive upset 27-24. The Buccaneers had 350 total yards including 205 rushing yards. Seattle had 415 total yards including 198 rushing yards. The Seahawks had the only 3 turnovers of the game. The two teams combined for 14 penalties for 166 yards.

Tampa Bay is being outscored 24-16 this season. The Buccaneers are #31 in scoring in the NFL. Tampa Bay is averaging 304.2 yards per game including 196.8 passing and 107.5 rushing yards. The Buccaneers are #31 in total offense and #28 in passing. On defense, Tampa Bay is allowing 348 yards per game including 240.5 passing and 107.5 rushing yards. The Buccs are +2 in turnovers. Tampa Bay is 51/134 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/108. The Buccaneers have forced 17 sacks and allowed 20 this season. Tampa Bay has one defensive touchdown and has allowed one as well. The Buccaneers are averaging 80 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 60.

Tampa Bay released quarterback Josh Freeman after three games, and he is now with the Minnesota Vikings. Rookie Mike Glennon has started ever since then. Glennon has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,165 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 47 rushing yards. He has been sacked 13 times this season.

Running back Doug Martin is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Martin was the leading rusher for the Buccs with 456 yards and a touchdown, along with 12 catches. Mike James has 55 carries for 254 yards along with 10 catches, and a touchdown pass. Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey are behind James on the depth chart but neither has more than 9 carries this year. Receiver Vincent Jackson has 43 catches, 634 yards and 4 touchdowns. Timothy Wright has 24 catches, 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike Williams is out for the season with a hamstring injury. Williams had 22 catches, 216 yards and 2 touchdowns. Leonard has 16 catches for 124 yards. Tiquan Underwood and Kevin Ogletree both have a touchdown catch. Receiver Chris Owusu is doubtful with a foot injury. He has only six catches this season. Kickers Connor Barth (Achilles’ tendon) and Lawrence Tynes (staph infection) are both out for the season. Rian Lindell is the kicker for the Buccs.

Miami is 4-1 ATS after rushing for 150 yards or more, and after allowing 350 yards or more, 5-2 after a straight up win, after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, and on grass, 3-7-1 in week 10, 2-6 in road games, 1-4 overall, 0-4 in Monday games, and 0-3-1 against teams with losing home records.

Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in November, 7-2-2 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 2-5 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 4-10-1 after allowing 350 total yards or more, 10-28-1 at home, 1-5 after a straight up loss, overall and on grass, and 0-4-2 in Monday games. The Buccaneers have covered the last 4 times against the Dolphins.

This whole week has been full of distractions for the Dolphins. However, playing an actual game might be a welcome respite from the intense media scrutiny the team has been under the last two weeks. Miami could come out fired up with an us against the world mentality. It also helps that the Buccaneers are not very good. I like Miami to win a low scoring game with a late field goal, something like 13-10.

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