NFL Postseason Picks; Betting Trends: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay at San Francisco

Time: 5:40 PM CST (FOX)

Spread: SF -9

Total: 45.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The San Francisco 49ers have won nine straight games and finds itself 9-point favorites at home against the visiting Green Bay Packers. The over/under is set at 45.5 total points according to NFL oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

SAN FRANCISCO

The San Francisco 49ers finished 13-3 on the season and have won its last three. It defeated the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 last outing.

San Francisco has the league’s No. 2 rush offense at 144.1 yards per game, while it ranks middle-of-the-pack in passing at 237 yards per. The 49ers have the second-highest scoring offense at 29.9 per game, and it limits its opponents to just 19.4 per game.

49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo started the season slow, but he has come on strong since. He has thrown for 3,978 yards on 69 percent passing, no longer relegated to having to sit the bench behind the legendary Tom Brady in New England. Garoppolo has 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and he has been sacked 36 times for a total loss of 237 yards. His passer rating of 102 is weak, but it is not that representative of how well he has played since his poor start.

The 49ers have three rushing options all topping 500 yards on the season, using a runningback-by-committee approach that has worked darn well. Matt Breida is No. 2 in yardage (623), while Tevin Coleman and Rasheem Mostert have the most attempts (137), and Mostert leads in yards-per-carry (5.6) and total yardage (772). The 49ers average 4.6 yards-per-carry as a team, and though Garoppolo has struggled as a carrier (just 1.3 yards-per-attempt) he has a touchdown and 13 rushes for first down.

49ers ATS Trends:

49ers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.

49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

49ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.

49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.

49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

49ers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

 

GREEN BAY

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers keeps on ticking. He has over 1k yards on the season at a 62.3 percent completion ratio with six TDs and just one interception. The Packers rush attack has fared less well: Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are the top-two rushers but both average just 3.3 yards-per-attempt. Jones does have four TD rushes, but Williams has none nor are there any others with a TD to their name. Lead wideout Davante Adams also has no TDs to his credit despite 378 yards and 25 catches.

Tight end Jimmy Graham has two TDs but just nine catches and Geronimo Allison adds two more touchdowns on his eight catches. The Packers are averaging just 21.3 points per game this season, but its defense has limited opponents to 17.3 per. The +4.0 point differential is solid, while the offense has hardly been. Green Bay ranks No. 14 in pass offense and No. 26 in rush offense, generating just 86.3 yards per game from its weak backfield. Green Bay still can leverage this season to be a good one, but the team has had its glaring deficiencies even while going 3-1 thus far.

Packers ATS Trends:

Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Packers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.

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