NFL Picks Week 12: New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 11/27/11, 4:15 PM EST, TV:  CBS
Opening Point Spread:  New England -3
Current Betting Line:  New England -3.5
Opening Total:  49.5
Current Total:  49.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy leads the NFL in rushing through 11 weeks of the season

New England has taken control of the AFC East division and comes in off a 34-3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs as 17-point home favorites on Monday Night Football.  “We’re 7-3. I don’t think we’re really where we hoped to be at this point,” stated Patriots quarterback Tom Brady stated.  Last year’s MVP has tossed five touchdowns and zero interceptions in outscoring the team’s last two opponents by a combined 71-19 score.  The franchise is an NFL-best 61-15 in games on or after Thanksgiving Day since the start of the 2001 campaign.  New England is 3-2 ATS on the road this season.

The Patriots offense is currently on pace to score 469 points, which would be the third-most in franchise history.  New England is still needing to improve a defensive unit that’s allowing 404.2 yards per game, which is the worst in the league.  These two teams will be meeting up for the 11th time during the regular season, with the Patriots winning just four of those matchups, but did walk away with a 24-21 win in Super Bowl XXXIX.

Philadelphia is still alive in the NFC East discussion with a 4-6 record and tallying a surprising 17-10 win over the New York Giants as six-point road underdogs last week.  The Eagles will be led by backup quarterback Vince Young for the second consecutive game, completing 23 of 36 passes for 258 yards with two touchdowns and three interception at MetLife Stadium last week.  He will want to get the ball in the hands of LeSean McCoy and the running game, as the former Pitt Panthers star leads the NFL with 1,019 rushing yards.  Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS on the year and 5-6 ATS as an underdog the last two-plus years.

The Eagles will need to get pressure on Brady, but blitzed Giants quarterback Eli Manning just once in 55 snaps.  Philadelphia defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has been much more conservative than his predecessor Jim Johnson, who was known for dialing up pressure at all times.  Young will ultimately be the key to the game, as he’ll face the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL.

Bettors will likely back the Eagles due to their 8-1 ATS record as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while the favorite in this series is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.

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