NFL Picks and Predictions Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars at Saint Louis Rams

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St. Louis rookie QB Sam Bradford is looking to bust out of a three-game slump

Jaguars-Rams
Time: 1 PM ET, Sun Oct 6 2013
Spread: STL -11.5
O/U: 41

Odds Courtesy of Bovada

The Rams have dropped three straight but there’s nothing better to set them back on track than a matchup against the NFL’s worst franchise. And so, despite being outscored 66-18 over the last two weeks, the Saint Louis Rams will find themselves 11-point favorites against Jacksonville.

The Jags have barely been able to generate any offense, ranking 3rd-to-last in passing yards and 2nd-to-last in rushing yards. Meanwhile, opponents have been able to run all over the Jacksonville defense, scarring them for 165 yards per game. There is a palpable and real possibility that the Jaguars go winless this season, and it seems management is already beginning to look past QB Blaine Gabbert as a solution.

Gabbert missed three games with injury but made his not so triumphant return last week. Jags receivers are dropping catchable passes, and the Jaguars are hoping Justin Blackmon’s return from suspension provides a spark to the offense. Maurice Jones-Drew has not had much success, but the predictable nature of Jacksonville’s offense, coupled with his lack of breakaway speed, makes his 2.4 yards per carry seem to be about right. Jones-Drew hasn’t been relevant in five seasons, and the Jags base their offense off his skills.

The Rams have been ineffective rushing the ball this season and rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yardage (47 per game). Then, compounding this, lead rusher Daryl Richardson is not playing this week. The Rams are reasonably good via the air but with Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy in the backfield, will it be enough to still run circles around Jacksonville? NFL oddsmakers at Bovada seem to have it right, given that Jacksonville has so much trouble generating offense.

JAC

0-4 ATS following SU loss; 0-5 ATS following SU loss of 14-plus; UNDER 5-0 in last 5 following double-digit loss

STL

OVER 5-0 in last 5 after scoring less than 15 previous game; OVER 4-0 in last 4 at home vs teams with losing road records; 0-4 ATS in last 4 overall.

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