NFL Picks and Predictions Week 16: Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders

Fred Jackson had 71 yards in the surprising win over the Green Bay Packers last week.

Fred Jackson had 71 yards in the surprising win over the Green Bay Packers last week.

Bills – Raiders
Time: 3:25 PM CST
Spread: BUF -7
Total: 39

Betting odds c/o Bovada

The Buffalo Bills are 8-6 and currently second place, far behind the division leading New England Patriots who are 11-3 on the year. Oakland, meanwhile, has fared far worse, as one of the NFL’s worst clubs and owners of a 2-12 record.

Hosting the Bills, NFL oddsmakers are not setting the line much better for Oakland in NFL live lines, with the Bills favored by 7-points. The point total is also set low in the game with NFL daily lines reflecting an over/under of 39.

Oakland has a horrid offense. The Raiders average just about 282 yards per game and have the worst rush offense in the league, with just 73.8 yards coming on the ground per game. Darren McFadden has now completely ingrained his bust-hood, with a 3.3 yards per carry average on a very mediocre 467 yard season. Latavius Murray has had more success with 6.1 yards per carry and he’s generated 13 first downs in his 49 rushing attempts.

Raiders QB Derek Carr has had his issues adapting to NFL defenses. While he’s shown flashes, his overall numbers are poor: 59.2 percent completion, 5.5 yards per attempt, a 2.1 percent interception ratio and a 76.9 passer rating. The Raiders will eventually hope that Carr becomes a franchise player type QB, but there’s certainly no promise other than the aforementioned flashes that have shown his playmaking ability on the fly.

The Buffalo Bills are 4th in pass defense and 9th in rush defense, and allow just 313 yards per game. However, the offense actually generates only 319 yards per game, and the result is a very mediocre team. However, the Bills have won three of its past four, with the last being a 21-13 victory over Green Bay last week.

Kyle Orton threw 14-of-27 for 158 yards with no TDs and one INT. He was sacked three times. And Fred Jackson’s 71 yards basically accounted for all of the backfield’s production. And yet, despite these seemingly unlikely factors, despite having eight less first downs in the game, the Bills prevailed. The safety that Eddie Lacy picked up when tackled with 1:51 to go in the fourth quarter put the game out of reach for the Packers and began a chorus for the hosting Bills.

The Bills outscored the Packers 11-3 in the second half of the game, and despite being out-driven 333 to 253, the Bills pulled an amazing upset, and it will certainly put the accent on this season for the club. It stands to reason that the momentum carries over to a big win for Buffalo today over the Raiders.

Betting Trends:

BUF: The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bills last 5 vs AFC. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 following an ATS win.

OAK: The OVER is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 after allowing more than 350 total yards in previous game. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Raiders last 6 games in Week 16. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 following an ATS loss.

Head-to-head: OVER is 4-1 in last 5 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Injury Report:

BUF, Prob: J Wynn, D Searcy, D Williams, D Carpenter, S Chandler;
BUF, Q: S Spiller, C Gragg,
BUF, Out: M Williams, L McKelvin, K Ladler, C Williams, J Meeks, K Alonso, M Butler, S Sylvester

OAK, Q: D Hayden, C Wilson

OAK, Out: B Leonhart, M Watson, D Moore, C Chekwa, T Brown, V Brown, S Moore, R Streater, L Asante, J Dowling, C Rogers, D Ausberry, U Young, L Woodley, N Roach, T Jones, T Branch, K Sheets, N Kasa

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Posted by on Dec 21 2014. Filed under Headlines, NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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