NFL Football Week One Picks: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Odds courtesy of Bovada
The Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns have both been bad for a while, but both are making positive steps towards becoming contenders. Both franchises sport young talent and each will try to get the 2013 season off on the right foot with an opening day victory. Cleveland will look to do a lot of damage on the ground with second-year running back Trent Richardson, while Miami may seek to air it out under the strong arm of second-year QB Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill defied expectations last year in leading the Dolphins to seven wins, and he said he is “see(ing) things much quicker.” The Dolphins afforded Tannehill a better long ball option in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson signed as well. Tannehill said he felt good about the collection of talent on the field. There is plenty of improvement from last season, when the team finished 27th in offense. Also, there is the loss of playmaker Reggie Bush, who is expected to be replaced by Lamar Miller.
The Browns are expected to use a 3-4 scheme defensively, but will seek to control the ball and clock as much as possible with Richardson, which could be the deciding factor if the game is close. Richardson ran for 950 yards on 267 carries last saxon, and spent much of the year with ailing ribs.
Brandon Weeden is a talented second-year QB for Cleveland, too.
Weeden threw for 3,385 yards last year, which was second to only Andrew Luck among first year players. Though he is an older rookie at age 29, he is mature and has shown the ability to make good decisions, though he did throw 17 interceptions in 2012.
Miami is not a defense that forces a lot of turnovers, and the Browns do have a strong offensive unit whether it be relying on Weeden’s arm or Richardson’s legs. The Dolphins are putting it together, but Cleveland should be able to hold on to win a tough opener at home. The Dolphins have lost the last four contests to the Browns and this will make it five.
0-4 ATS in last 4 on road, UNDER 5-1 in last 6 week one games, 1-5-1 ATS in last 7 games in week one.
1-7 ATS in last 8 games in week one, UNDER 4-1 in last 5 Sept games, UNDER 10-3 in last 13 home games
Head-to-head: Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in last 5 mtgs, UNDER 4-1 in last 5