NFL Betting Predictions Week 16: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey

Sunday, December 22, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: New York -1
Current Line: New York -2 1/2
Opening Total: 39 1/2
Current Total: 40 1/2
Opening Money Line: Jets -135 / Browns +115
Current Money Line: Jets -135 / Browns +115 

The 6-8 New York Jets are a slight home favorite against the Cleveland Browns. The Jets need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

The 6-8 New York Jets are a slight home favorite against the Cleveland Browns. The Jets need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

The 6-8 New York Jets are still barely alive for a playoff spot but will be eliminated with one more loss or a win by the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens or Miami Dolphins. The 7-7 San Diego Chargers and 6-8 Pittsburgh Steelers are also in the mix for the last playoff spot in the AFC. Unfortunately, the Jets have losses to all of those teams except for San Diego. The Jets host the 4-10 Cleveland Browns Sunday. Since 2001, Cleveland leads the series against the Jets 3-2. New York won the last meeting in 2010 at MetLife Stadium 26-20.

Cleveland is coached by Rob Chudzinski. The Browns have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last 9. Cleveland has home wins over the Cincinnati Bengals 17-6, Buffalo Bills 37-24, and Ravens 24-18, along with a road win at the Vikings 31-27. The Browns have home losses to the Dolphins 23-10, Detroit Lions 31-17, Steelers 27-11, Jacksonville Jaguars 32-28 and last week against the Chicago Bears 38-31, along with road losses to the Ravens 14-6, Green Bay Packers 31-13, Kansas City Chiefs 23-17, Bengals 41-20, at the New England Patriots 27-26. Cleveland is 6-8 ATS and the total is 9-5 this season. The Browns were 1 point underdogs to the Bears last week and the total was 43.5.

Cleveland is being outscored 26-21 this season. The Browns are #21 in points allowed and #27 in scoring. Cleveland is averaging 346.2 yards per game on offense including 261.3 passing and 84.9 rushing yards. The Browns are #9 in passing,  #27 in rushing and #14 in total offense. On defense, Cleveland is allowing  328.9 yards per game including 225.1 passing and 103.8 rushing yards. The Browns are #9 or better in all three categories. Cleveland is -6 in turnovers. The Browns are 85/236 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 96/222. Cleveland has forced 39 sacks and allowed 43 this season. The Browns have 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed 4. Cleveland averages 62 penalty yards per game and opponents average 50.

The Browns have used three quarterbacks this season. Brandon Weeden started the season but was replaced by Brian Hoyer. Hoyer tore his ACL after starting a few games. He was replaced by Jason Campbell. Campbell has been reliable when healthy but he has battled some nagging injuries. Weeden is probable with a concussion, but Campbell will start. Weeden has completed 52.8% of his passes for 1,731 yards with 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 44 rushing yards. He has been sacked 27 times. Campbell has completed 58.9% of his passes for 1,597 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, plus 80 rushing yards. He has been sacked 10 times this season. Hoyer threw for 615 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions before the injury.

Running back Willis McGahee has 138 carries for 377 rushing yards and the only two rushing touchdowns for the Browns this season, along with  8 catches. He is probable  Sunday with a concussion after missing last week. Chris Ogbonnaya has 47 carries for 231 yards, along with 46 catches for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Trent Richardson was traded to the Colts earlier in the season. Fozzy Whitaker has 29 carries for 80 yards, along with 19 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Ogbonnaya and Whittaker will get more carries if McGahee can’t go.

Receiver Josh Gordon has 74 catches for 1,467 yards with 9 touchdowns, along with 4 carries for 66 yards. Tight end Jordan Cameron has 75 catches for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is questionable with injured ribs and a concussion. Greg Little has 39 catches for 452 yards and 2 touchdowns. Davone Bess has 42 catches, 362 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gary Barnidge has 11 catches for  104 yards and 2 touchdowns. Travis Benjamin had a punt return for a touchdown but he is out for the season with a knee injury. Two tight ends and four wide receivers are listed on the injury report. Six defensive players and six offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

The New York Jets are coached by Rex Ryan who might lose his job at the end of the season.  The Jets have home wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18-17, Buffalo Bills 27-20, New England Patriots 30-27 in overtime, New Orleans Saints 26-20, the Oakland Raiders 37-27, along with a road win at the Atlanta Falcons 30-28. New York has road losses at the Patriots 13-10, Tennessee Titans 38-13, Cincinnati Bengals 49-9, Bills 37-14, Ravens 19-3 and last week at the Carolina Panthers 30-20, along with home losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers 19-6 and Miami Dolphins 23-3. The Jets are 7-6-1 ATS and the total is 9-5 this season. New York was a 10 point underdog at Carolina last week and the total was 41.

New York is being outscored 26-18 this season. The Jets are #31 in scoring and #23 in points allowed.  New York is averaging 306.7 yards per game including 178.4 passing and 128.3 rushing yards. The Jets are #30 in total offense and #31 in passing offense and #9 in rushing. On defense, New York is allowing 341.4 yards per game including 255.4 passing and 86.1 rushing yards. The Jets are #3 in rush defense, #26 in pass defense and #12 in total defense. New York is -19 in turnovers which is last in the league. The Jets are 73/205 on third and fourth down conversions and 80/201. New York has forced 38 sacks and allowed 47 this season. The Jets have one defensive and one special teams touchdown and have allowed 6 defensive touchdowns. New York averages 55 penalty yards per game and opponents average 55.

Rookie quarterback Geno Smith has had his ups and downs this season. He has completed 55.3% of his passes for 2,642 yards with 10 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, along with 52 carries, 274 yards and 4 touchdowns. He was benched in the second half of the loss to the Dolphins a few weeks ago, but started the next two games. Back-up Matt Simms has thrown for 156 yards with a touchdown and an interception, along with 37 rushing yards.

Running back Chris Ivory has 157 carries for 705 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Bilal Powell has 148 carries, 567 yards and a touchdown, along with 31 catches for 250 yards. Running backs Mike Goodson and John Griffin are both on IR as is fullback Lex Hilliard.

Receiver Jeremy Kerley has 33 catches, 413 yards and 3 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes has 18 catches for 395 yards and a touchdown. Stephen Hill has 24 catches for 342 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Tight end Kellen Winslow has 27 catches, 319 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeff Cumberland has 23 catches for 338 yards and 4 touchdowns. David Nelson has 27 catches for 324 yards. Receivers Josh Cribbs, Clyde Gates, and Vidal Hazelton are all out for the season as is tight end Konrad Reuland. Four defensive players are also on the injury report.

Cleveland is 16-5 ATS against teams with winning records, 8-3 after scoring 30 points or more, 16-6 after passing for more than 250 yards, 11-5-1 on fieldturf, 8-18-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 3-7 after allowing more than 30 points, 2-6 in week 16, 1-4 overall, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, and 1-5 in December. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series.

New York is 5-2 ATS after a straight up loss, and at home, 2-5 after passing for less than 150 yards, 1-3-1 overall, 1-4 in week 16, against teams with losing records, and against AFC teams, 1-4-1 in December, 1-5 against teams with losing road records, and 0-4 after rushing for 150 yards or more. The favorite has covered the last 4 in this series.

Cleveland should be much better if you look at their stats. The have a top 10 defense, and one of the best passing attacks in the game. Still they sit near the bottom of the league with a 4-10 records. The Jets are wildly inconsistent, and you never know what team will show up. The Jets do struggle to score, but have a good runnign attack. i think they will control the clock and pull out a close ugly game.

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Posted by on Dec 20 2013. Filed under Headlines, NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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