NFL Betting Predictions Week 14: New York Jets At Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 9, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida
Opening Line: New York -3
Current Line: New York -3 (+105)
Opening Total: 39 1/2
Current Total: 38 1/2
Opening Money Line: Jets -145 / Jaguars +125
Current Money Line: Jets -140 / Jaguars +120

The 5-7 New York Jets try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive as they travel to the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Jets are 3 point road favorites.

The 5-7 New York Jets still have an outside shot of making the playoffs. The must win their remaining 4 games and get a lot of help. The Jets, coached by Rex Ryan, travel to the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Jaguars are coached by Mike Mularkey. Jacksonville is tied with Kansas City for the worst record in the league.

The Jets won an ugly 7-6 game at home last week against Arizona Cardinals to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. New York has additional road games at Tennessee and Buffalo, along with a home game against San Diego left this season. The Jets are 6-6 ATS and the total is also 6-6 this season.

The Jaguars have lost 8 of their last 9 games, including 34-18 last week at Buffalo. This is the second of 4 straight games for Jacksonville against AFC East opponents as they will travel to Miami and host New England before closing the season at Tennessee. The Jaguars are 6-6 ATS and the total is 6-6 this season.

Since 2001, Jacksonville leads the series against New York 4-2. The Jets won 32-3 in New Jersey last season to snap a 3 game losing streak against the Jaguars.

New York is averaging 308.9 yards per game on offense, including 193.8 passing yards and 115.2 rushing yards. The Jets are 29th in total offense, 28th in passing and 12th in rushing. New York is being outscored 25-19 this season. The Jets are 26th in points scored. The Jets are -6 in turnovers. New York has forced 19 sacks and allowed 30 this season. The Jets are 69/176 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, New York is allowing 335.8 yards per game, including 198.3 passing yards and 137.5 rushing yards. The Jets are #10 in total defense, #4 against the pass, #29 against the rush, and #22 in points allowed. New York has 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has completed 55% of his passes for 2,436 yards with 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He has been sacked 29 times this season. He is probable with a back injury. He was benched last week against the Cardinals after throwing 3 interceptions. Third string quarterback Greg McIlroy came in and threw the game winning touchdown pass. Ryan said Sanchez would continue to be the starter. McIlroy threw for 29 yards in that game, so he didn’t exactly set the world on fire. There is also some guy named Tim Tebow in the mix. Tebow has only thrown 7 passes this season, but he does have 87 rushing yards. He is a game time decision with broken ribs, but the Jets haven’t really used him even when healthy.

Running back Shonn Greene has 210 carries, 806 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 13 catches for 105 yards. Bilal Powell has 70 carries, 278 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 76 yards. Powell is probable with a shoulder injury. Joe McKnight has 141 rushing yards but is more dangerous as a kick returner. He averages 28 yards per return with a touchdown. McKnight is probable with an ankle injury.

The Jets’ receiving corps has been decimated by injury. Receiver Santonio Holmes and tight end Dustin Keller are both out for the season. Jeremy Kerley has 48 carries, 701 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kerley also has a punt return for a touchdown. He is probable with a heel injury. Stephen Hill has 21 catches, 252 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury. Tight end Jeff Cumberland has 21 catches, 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a quadricep injury. Chaz Schilens has 24 catches, 231 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clyde Gates is out with a concussion. Green is the only receiver with more than 13 catches who isn’t battling some sort of injury. No other receiver has more than 7 catches. An incredible 27 Jets players are listed on the injury report but 18 are probable.

Jacksonville averages 282.8 yards per game on offense, including 204.1 passing yards and 78.8 rushing yards. The Jaguars are being outscored 29-17. Jacksonville is #31 in total offense, #24 in passing, last in rushing, and #30 in scoring. The Jags are even in turnovers. Jacksonville has forced 13 sacks and allowed 37 this season. The Jaguars are 49/169 on third and fourth down conversions. Jacksonville is allowing 404.9 yards per game on defense, including 260.9 passing yards and  144 rushing yards. The Jaguars are 28th or worse in all defensive categories.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Chad Henne has replaced him. Henne has completed 52.5% of his passes for 1,032 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has been sacked 15 times but does have a rushing touchdown.

Including Gabbert, the top four rushers are out Sunday for the Jaguars. Maurice Jones-Drew and Jalen Parmele are both out for the season. Rashad Jennings is out with a concussion. That leaves Montell Owens as the only healthy back. He had 7 carries for 29 yards last week in his only action  0f the season. Henne has 11 carries, but no other Jag has more than one carry.

The receiving corps is almost as decimated as the running backs. Leading receiver Cecil Shorts is out with a concussion. Laurent Robinson is out for the season with a concussion. Justin Blackmon has 39 catches, 557 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Marcedes Lewis has 37 catches, 398 yards and 4 touchdowns. Michael Spurlock and Mike Thomas will likely get more targets with Shorts, Robinson, Jones-Drew and Jennings out. The Jaguars have 26 players listed on the injury report, including 19 players that are out.

The Jets are 4-0 ATS after passing for less than 150 yards, 4-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, and allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 2-5 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 2-7 on grass, 1-4 after a straight up win, against teams with losing records, overall, and after allowing less than 250 total yards.

The Jaguars are 4-0 after allowing a50 rushing yards or more, 6-1-1 after gaining less than 250 total yards, 4-1 after allowing 30 points or more, 6-2-1 in Week 14, 5-2 after failing to cover, 2-5 in December, 1-5 at home, and 1-6-1 after allowing less than 150 passing yards. Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 against the Jets.

Both of these teams have a ton of injuries. Neither team can move the ball. The Jets, at least have some semblance of a defense. New York can’t stop the run, but that shouldn’t be an issue against a 4th string running back making his first NFL start. While the Jets aren’t very good mainly due to being dysfunctional, Jacksonville is even worse. The Jets should roll in this game.

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