NFL Betting Picks Week Six: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri
Sunday, October 13, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Kansas City -10
Current Line: Kansas City -9 1/2 (+105)
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 41
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -380 / Raiders +310
Current Money Line: Chiefs -360 / Raiders +300
The 2-3 Oakland Raiders travel to longtime rival the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. The Chiefs are one of three undefeated teams left in the NFL along with fellow AFC West rival the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints. It is a remarkable turnaround for the Chiefs who won 2 games last season and tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the worst record in the league. Since 2001, Kansas City leads the series 13-11, but the Raiders have won 5 of the last 6 in the series and 3 in a row. Oakland won at home last year 15-0 and in Kansas City 26-16. The teams will play in Oakland December 15.
Oakland is coached by Dennis Allen. The Raiders have home wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars 19-9 and last week against the San Diego Chargers 27-17. Oakland has road losses the the Indianapolis Colts 21-17 and the Broncos 37-21, along with a home loss to the Washington Redskins 24-14. The Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS this season and the total is 1-4. Oakland was a 5.5 point underdog at home to San Diego last week and the total was 46.
The Oakland-San Diego was moved to 11:35 pm Eastern Sunday night because the grounds crew at O.co Coliseum where the Raiders play their home games needed more time to convert the stadium from baseball to football after the A’s MLB playoff game late Saturday night. The Raiders took a 17-0 lead at halftime. Oakland expanded the lead to 24-3 on a 25 yard fumble return for a touchdown. It was one of five Charger turnovers and the Raiders had none. San Diego would pull to within 24-17 in the fourth quarter with just over 10 minutes to go. However, Oakland would keep the ball for the next six minutes and kick a field goal to go up 27-17. The Chargers had two more possessions but both ended with interceptions by QB Philip Rivers. San Diego had 427 total yards including 391 passing yards. Oakland had 299 total yards including 195 passing yards.
Oakland is being outscored 22-20 this season. The Raiders are averaging 330.2 total yards on offense including 199.4 passing and 130.8 rushing yards. The Raiders are #27 in passing and #9 in rushing in the league. On defense, the Raiders are allowing 364.8 yards per game including 268.2 passing and 96.6 rushing yards. Oakland is +2 in turnovers. The Raiders are 27/72 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 28/67. Oakland has forced 13 sacks and allowed 18. The Raiders have one special teams touchdown along with a defensive touchdown and has allowed a defensive touchdown. Oakland is averaging 30:07 minutes time of possession. The Raiders average 54 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 40.
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has completed 68.3% of his passes for 845 yards, with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 37 carries and 229 yards. He has been sacked 11 times this season. Pryor missed the game against the Redskins a couple of weeks ago with a concussion but played against San Diego. Back-up quarterback Matt Flynn was released earlier this week. If something happens to Pryor, rookie Matthew McGloin from Penn State is the new back-up.
Running back Darren McFadden is questionable with a hamstring injury and missed last week. He has 53 carries, 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 46 yards. He has even thrown a touchdown pass. Rashad Jennings started against the Chargers but injured his hamstring as well. He too is questionable. Jennings has 30 carries for 120 yards, along with 11 catches for 88 yards. Fullback Marcel Reece is probable with a knee injury. Reece has 9 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown along with 9 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. If neither McFadden nor Jennings can go, Jeremy Stewart and Latavius Murray are the only healthy running backs. Neither has a carry this season.
Receiver Denarius Moore has 20 catches 317 yards and 3 touchdowns. Rod Streater has 16 catches, 228 yards and a touchdown. Mychal Rivera has 10 catches, 128 yards and a touchdown. Four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report along with 2 defensive players.
Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have home wins over the Dallas Cowboys 17-16 and the New York Giants 31-7, along with road wins at the Jaguars 28-2, Philadelphia Eagles 26-16, and last week at the Tennessee Titans 26-17. The Chiefs have only played teams from the NFC East and AFC South so far this season and are playing their first divisional game of the season. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS and the total is 1-4 ATS.The Chiefs were 2.5 point favorites on the road at Tennessee and the game went over the 38 point total.
Kansas City took a 13-0 lead into halftime against Tennessee. However, Tennessee would score 17 straight to take a 4 point lead early in the fourth. The Chiefs would score 13 points in the final 6 minutes of the game to remain undefeated 26-17. KC had 353 total yards including 233 passing yards. The Chiefs weren’t exactly clicking on offense as they scored a defensive touchdown and kicked four field goals. KC overcame 9 penalties for 61 yards and 2 turnovers. Tennessee had 339 total yards including 234 passing yards. The Titans had 3 turnovers and 6 penalties for 35 yards.
Kansas City is outscoring teams 26-12 this season. The Chiefs lead the league in points allowed and are #11 in scoring. KC averages 348.4 yards per game on offense including 227.8 passing and 120.6 rushing yards. On defense, the Chiefs are allowing 312.8 yards per game including 197.8 passing and 115 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are #7 in total defense and #4 in pass defense, but #21 in rush defense. Kansas City is +10 in turnovers. The Chiefs are 25/77 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/75. Kansas City has forced 21 sacks and allowed 13 this season. The Chiefs are averaging 33:12 on time of possession. Kansas City is averaging 51 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 40. The Chiefs have 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 58.4% of his passes for 1,202 with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 33 carries for 161 yards. Chase Daniel is his back-up, but smith has taken every snap this season. Running back Jamaal Charles has 92 carries for 397 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a toe injury. If Charles can’t go or is limited, Knile Davis will be the feature back. Davis has 12 carries for 41 yards and a catch.
Receiver Donnie Avery has 16 catches, 304 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Dwayne Bowe has 17 catches for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sean McGrath has 15 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. Dexter McCluster has 11 catches for 106 yards, along with a punt return for a touchdown. Tight ends Anthony Fasano and Travis Kelce are both listed as doubtful at best. If McGrath can’t go, Kevin Brock is the only healthy tight end on the roster.
Oakland is 4-0 ATS in Week Six games, 4-0-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 5-0-1 against AFC teams, 3-0-1 against AFC West teams, 4-1-1 overall, 9-3 in October, 3-1-1 on grass, 7-3-1 against teams with winning home records, 2-5-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 1-3-2 against teams with winning records, 2-6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 1-5-1 after a straight up win, and 1-6-1 after a cover. The road team is 21-6-1 ATS in this series recently and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 12 games in the series. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against the Chiefs, and Oakland has covered their last trips to KC.
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS after a straight up win, overall and on grass, 6-2 in October, 3-9 against teams with losing records, and 1-5 against AFC West teams. The under is 17-5 in this series recently and the last 5 in Kansas City between the teams have gone under the total.
Oakland isn’t as terrible as people thought they would be before the season started. No one predicted that the Raiders would have more wins than the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers combined after 5 weeks of the NFL season. Still, Oakland faces a tough task having to travel to Kansas City on what amounts to a short week. West Coast teams usually don’t to0 well when they have to travel to the Central or Eastern time zones for a 10:00 am Pacific time kickoff. Plus, if McFadden and Jennings are both out, to whom will Pryor hand off the ball? Pryor is developing into a serviceable if not good NFL quarterback but he isn’t ready to win with his arm yet. I like Kansas City to win and cover, but the Raiders hang around for a while.