NFL Betting Picks Week 9: San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins
San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins
FedEx Field – Landover, Maryland
Sunday, November 3, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Chargers Pick
Current Line: Redskins Pick (-120)
Opening Total: 51
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Chargers -119 / Redskins -102
Current Money Line: Redskins -115 / Chargers -105
The 4-3 San Diego Chargers are in third place in the AFC West behind the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs and 7-1 Denver Broncos. The Chargers would be the #6 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. San Diego is coming off their bye and playing their second straight game on the East Coast as they travel to the 2-5 Washington Redskins Sunday. The Redskins are in third place in the NFC East but only a game and a half behind the 4-4 Dallas Cowboys who lead the division. San Diego has won all three meetings with Washington since 2001, including a 23-20 win in San Diego in the last game of the regular season in 2010.
San Diego is coached by Mike McCoy in his first season. The Chargers are 4-3 but could easily be 6-1. They lost to the Houston Texans 31-28 at home despite leading 28-7 in the third quarter. The Chargers then won at the Philadelphia Eagles 33-30 before losing at the Tennessee Titans 20-17. San Diego hosted the Dallas Cowboys and came back from a 21-10 deficit to win 30-21. The Chargers lost at the Oakland Raiders 27-17, and then beat the Indianapolis Colts 19-9. The Chargers beat up on the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars 24-6 two weeks ago before their bye. The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS this season and the total is 3-4. San Diego was a 7.5 point favorite against Jacksonville and the total was 44.5.
The Chargers jumped out to a 14-0 lead over the Jaguars before Jacksonville kicked a field goal to make it 14-3 at halftime. The teams exchanged field goals in the third quarter to make it 17-6. San Diego added a 4th quarter touchdown to make it 24-6. Neither team would score again. The Chargers racked up 434 total yards including 276 passing and 158 rushing yards. The Jaguars had 353 total yards including 275 passing yards. Jacksonville had the only turnover of the game and the teams combined for 14 penalties for 106 yards.
San Diego is outscoring teams 24-21 this season. The Chargers are #14 in scoring and #9 in points allowed in the NFL. On offense, San Diego is averaging 402.9 yards per game including 294.1 passing and 108.7 rushing yards per game. The Chargers are #4 in total offense and #6 in passing. On defense, San Diego is allowing 378.6 total yards per game, including 273.1 passing and 105.4 rushing yards. The Chargers are 16th or worse in all three categories. The Chargers are -6 in turnovers this season. San Diego is 44/89 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 37/87. The Chargers have forced 20 sacks and allowed 11 this season. San Diego is averaging 32:36 minutes for time of possession. The Chargers are averaging 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 65. San Diego has allowed 3 defensive touchdowns this season.
San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is having his best season in years. He has completed 73.9% of his passes for 2,132 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 32 rushing yards. He has been sacked 11 times. Running back Ryan Mathews has 110 carries for 446 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Danny Woodhead has 46 carries for 172 yards and a touchdown, along with 40 catches for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ronnie Brown has 26 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown, along with 6 catches for 48 yards. Tight end Antonio Gates has 42 catches, 497 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Keenan Allen has 26 catches, 399 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eddie Royal has 22 catches, 285 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is probable with a toe injury. Vincent Brown has 26 catches 265 yards and a touchdown. Receivers Malcolm Floyd and Danario Alexander are both on IR. Nine defensive players and five offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Washington is coached by Mike Shanahan. The two wins for the Redskins came at the Oakland Raiders 24-14 and at home against the Chicago Bears 45-41. The Redskins have home losses to the Philadelphia Eagles 33-27 and the Detroit Lions 27-20, along with road losses at the Green Bay Packers 38-20, the Dallas Cowboys 31-16, and last week at the Denver Broncos 45-21. Washington is 2-5 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. The Redskins were 11 point underdogs at Denver last week and the total was 58.5.
The Redskins and Broncos were tied at 7 at halftime. The Redskins took a 21-7 lead in the third quarter with a 26 yard pick six. It looked like the Redskins might have been able to pull off the upset against the team Shanahan used to coach and won two Super Bowl titles. However, Denver would score 38 unanswered points to win and cover 45-21. The Broncos scored 31 fourth quarter points capped off with a 75 yard pick six late in the fourth. Washington had 266 total yards including 154 passing yards. Denver had 446 total yards including 339 passing yards. The game featured 9 turnovers (5 by the Redskins).
Washington is being outscored 33-25 this season. The Redskins are #10 in scoring and #31 in points allowed. Washington is averaging 394.4 yards per game including 257.1 passing and 137.3 rushing yards. Washington is in the top ten in the league in all three categories. On defense, the Redskins are giving up 397.1 yards per game including 273.7 passing and 123.4 rushing yards. Washington is 28th or worse in all three categories. The Redskins are -3 in turnovers. Washington is 39/99 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 37/94. The Redskins have forced 20 sacks and allowed 14. Washington has 5 defensive touchdowns and has allowed 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns. The redskins average 55 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53.
Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III has shown flashes of his brilliant play from his rookie season recently after tearing his ACL in last year’s playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He has completed 59% of his passes for 1,878 yards with 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 43 carries for 240 yards. He has been sacked 14 times this season. RGIII tweaked the injured knee in the second half against the Broncos and was replaced by Kirk Cousins, who threw for 48 yards and 2 picks in his only action of the season. Griffin is probable Sunday.
Running back Alfred Morris has 108 carries for 565 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Roy Helu has 36 carries, 140 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 145 yards. Receiver Pierre Garcon has 47 catches, 512 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a calf injury. Tight end Jordan Reed has 34 catches, 388 yards and 2 touchdowns. Leonard Hankerson has 19 catches, 254 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a foot injury. Santana Moss has 19 catches, 234 yards and a touchdown. Ten defensive players are listed on the injury report for the Redskins.
San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in road games, overall, and on grass, 4-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 3-1-1 after passing for 250 yards or more, 5-2-1 against teams with losing home records, 2-5 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing, 2-5-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 2-6 in November, 2-7-1 after a cover, 1-6-1 after a straight up win, and 0-4 after a straight up win of 14 points or more.
Washington is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning road records, in November, and after allowing 250 passing yards or more, 6-2 against teams with winning records, 2-5 on grass, 2-6 after a straight up loss of 14 points or more, and overall, and 0-5 in Week 9. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 games in this series.
This should be a high scoring affair with two explosive offenses and suspect defenses. Washington is especially bad on offense. I know the Chargers have to travel to the East coast for a 10:00 am Pacific time game but i just think Phillip Rivers carves up the Washington defense. San Diego escapes with a narrow road victory on a late field goal.