NFL Betting Picks: New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 21, 2018 – 4:05 pm Eastern TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland
Opening Line: Baltimore -2 1/2
Current Line: Baltimore -2 1/2
Opening Total: 51 (under -120)
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: Ravens -140 / Saints +120
Current Money Line: Ravens -145/ Saints +125

The Ravens host the Saints in a battle of first place teams Sunday.

Two first place teams in their respective divisions meet Sunday as the 4-2 Baltimore Ravens host the 4-1 New Orleans Saints. Baltimore is tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for first place in the AFC North and New Orleans is in first place in the NFC South. 

Since moving from Cleveland in the mid 90’s Baltimore has dominated the series against New Orleans 5-1 including three straight wins. The Ravens won the last meeting 34-27 in New Orleans in 2014. 

Baltimore  is coached by John Harbaugh. The Ravens have home wins over the Buffalo Bills 47-3 and Denver Broncos 27-14, plus road wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-14 and Tennessee Titans 21-0 last week. Baltimore ha road losses at the Cincinnati Bengals 34-23 and Cleveland Browns. 12-9 in overtime. The Ravens were 2.5 point favorites against the Titans and the total was 43.5. Baltimore is 4-2 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season. 

New Orleans is coached by Sean Payton. The Saints have a home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-40. New Orleans has won four straight games. The Saints have  home wins over the Cleveland Browns 21-18 and Washington Redskins 43-19 two weeks ago, plus road wins over the Atlanta Falcons 43-37 in overtime and New York Giants 33-18. New Orleans was a 5.5 point favorite against Washington and the total was 51.5. The Saints are 3-2 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. 

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Baltimore is outscoring teams  26-13 this season. The Ravens  are #1 in points allowed and #12 in scoring. Baltimore averages 393 yards per game on offense including 294 passing and 99 rushing yards. The Ravens are #9 in passing and total offense.  On defense, the Ravens allow 271 total yards per game including 188 passing and 83 rushing yards. Baltimore leads the league in total offense, is #2 in pass defense, and is #3 in rush defense. Baltimore is 50/103 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 22/87. Baltimore has  forced 26 sacks and allowed 12 this season. The Ravens are -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has  completed 62.1% of his passes for 1,788 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 16  carries for 27 yards. He has been sacked 11 times. Back-up Lamar Jackson will also get a few snaps each game. He has completed one pass for 24 yards but does have 94 rushing yards on 17 carries. 

Running back Alex Collins has 76 carries for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. Javorius Allen has 35 carries for 97 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 24 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. Kenneth Dixon is out until at least week 11 with a knee injury. 

Receiver John Brown has 21 catches for 424 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Michael Crabtree has 30 catches for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns. Willie Snead IV  has 30 catches for 313 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Mark Andrews has 13 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown. Maxx Williams andNick Boyle will also get some targets. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report. 

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New Orleans is outscoring teams 36-28 this season. The Saints are #1 in scoring but #26 in points allowed. The Saints average 424 total yards per game on offense including 321 passing and 103 rushing yards per game. New Orleans is #3 in both total offense in passing. New Orleans  allows 369 total yards per game on defense including 298 passing and 71 rushing. The Saints are #1 in rush defense and #30 in pass defense. The Saints are 27/60 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/65. New Orleans has forced 12 sacks and allowed 8 sacks this season. The Saints are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 77.9% of his passes for 1,658 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has 2 rushing touchdowns. He has been sacked 8 times. Brees became the NFL’s all time leader in passing yards in the last game and needs one more touchdown pass to become only the fourth player in history to have 500 passing touchdowns. Teddy Bridgewater is the backup. 

Running back Alvin Kamara has 62 carries for 299 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 38 catches for 351 yards and a touchdown. Back-up quarterback Taysom Hill has 12 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. Mike Gillislee has 16 carries for 43 yards. Mark Ingram returned from a four game suspension. He has 16 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 catches for 20 yards. 

Receiver Michael Thomas has 46 catches for 519 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Tight end Benjamin Watson has 17 catches for 187 yards and no touchdowns. Ted Ginn, Jr. has 12 catchesfor 135 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 26 rushing yards. He is out with a knee injury likely for the season. Seven defensive players and five offensive linemen are listed on the injury report. 

The last four games in this series have gone over the total. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS against New Orleans all time.

New Orleans struggles to stop the pass but has one of the best offenses in football. For the second straight game the Saints are playing the number one defense. NewOrleans shredded the Washington defense, and i think they can score against a banged up Baltimore defense. I like the Saints to win a close shootout on the road. 

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